WNBA · Finalupdated 22:34 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 14 · both teams together expected to score about 169 points · odds to win: CON 8.64, LVA 1.09

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:33 UTC

CON 78 – LVA 101

Final · 3 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 3 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

J. Young · Over 19.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.07 · last price before start 1.93Won +1.07 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.07 · Our price was 3.6% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.93, 27 min ago

First offered at 1.93 by Pinnacle (Fri 00:33 UTC); latest 1.93 at Pinnacle (Fri 01:52 UTC). The 19.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.35 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

K. Burke · Over 8.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.83Won +0.88 per 1 staked

C. Leger-Walker · Under 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.81 · last price before start 1.81Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

O. Nelson-Ododa · Under 9.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.71 · last price before start pendingWon +0.71 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying LVA

SLeila Lacan · 29 min expected

points 11.5 → 11 actual

SCharlisse Leger-Walker · 27 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

SDiamond Miller · 27 min expected

points 10.5 → 2 actual

SKennedy Burke · 27 min expected

points 8.5 → 11 actual

SOlivia Nelson-Ododa · 25 min expected

rebounds 9.5 → 1 actual

Brittney Griner · Out · left knee

rebounds 5.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Angloma (20 expected minutes) · Beers (20 min) · +4 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying CON

SA'ja Wilson · 34 min expected

points 25.5 → 20 actual

SChelsea Gray · 33 min expected

points 11.5 → 6 actual

SJackie Young · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 24 actual

SNaLyssa Smith · 26 min expected

points 10.5 → 7 actual

Jewell Loyd · 27 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (15 expected minutes) · Yamamoto (15 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 22:34 UTC

Who is out

Out Evans · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 19:30 UTC) · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Edwards · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 20:15 UTC) · 17, 27 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Lith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 20:45 UTC) · 28, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 5 players (Beers, Angloma, Rivers, Turner, Yamamoto) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 143 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 19:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Edwards out (Mon 20:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Lith out (Wed 20:45 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 4 picks won3 won, 1 lost · +1.66 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.7% higher than the last before the start · 9 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked Sun 02:52 UTC

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · rebounds 9.5 → 1 · 8.5 below the line · played 24.3 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 9.5 at 1.71 → Won +0.71 per 1 staked

Kennedy Burke · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 23.8 min (27 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 1.88 → Won +0.88 per 1 staked

Jackie Young · points 19.5 → 24 · 4.5 above the line · played 27.6 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 19.5 at 2.07 → Won +1.07 per 1 staked

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 28.3 min (27 expected)

Pick: Under 8.5 at 1.81 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

7 other players with a posted line

Diamond Miller · points 10.5 → 2 · 8.5 below the line · played 11.2 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 28.9 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

NaLyssa Smith · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 17.5 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Jewell Loyd · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.1 min (27 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 20 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.4 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Leila Lacan · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.5 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Brittney Griner · rebounds 5.5 → did not play, so no result · FanDuel odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs CON · last 20 games · LVA leads · LVA record 17–3 · average score 86.9–78.1 · LVA has won by 8.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Aug · CON 78 at LVA 101LVA won

15 May · LVA 101 at CON 94LVA won

13 May · LVA 98 at CON 69LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up86.0 points · 33.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.4% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

LVA gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 14.5, expected total 167.5 (Thu 01:31 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 14, expected total 169 (Fri 00:33 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Jackie Young · O 19.5 points+107value_edge_pct +1.51 · kelly 0.35u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Kennedy Burke · O 8.5 points−113value_edge_pct −3.96 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · U 9.5 rebounds−141value_edge_pct −4.37 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Jackie Young · O 18.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.53 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Charlisse Leger-Walker · U 8.5 points−123value_edge_pct −4.69 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 21

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 9

Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −123 → close −123 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344056 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.6% · unexplained · actual 10 · 28.3 min · started

Jewell Loyd Under 8.5 PTSWIN +0.69ubet −145 → close −145 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:341164 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.4% · actual 7 · 23.1 min · startedLoyd shot just 2-7 from the field (28.6%) despite 23 minutes of run, with a 15% usage rate that limited her scoring opportunities in a game where she couldn't find rhythm from deep (1-5 3PT). The combination of poor efficiency and low volume kept her well short of 8.5.

Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 9.5 REBWIN +0.71ubet −141 · bet_clv:341169 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.0% · actual 1 · 24.3 min · startedNelson-Ododa grabbed just 1 rebound in 24 minutes despite decent scoring (14 pts on 56% FG), suggesting limited offensive rebounding activity and likely strong defensive rebounding control by the opponent. The severe minus-20 rating indicates a blowout loss that likely limited her opportunities on the glass.

Kennedy Burke Over 8.5 PTSWIN +0.88ubet −113 → close −120 · CLV +1.5¢ · bet_clv:341168 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 11 · 23.8 min · startedBurke cleared the line with 11 points on 45% shooting (5-11 FG), riding 24 minutes of run and 22% usage to comfortably exceed the 8.5-point prop. Her two steals and solid floor time in a losing effort provided enough volume to cash the over despite a quiet perimeter night (1-6 from three).

Chelsea Gray Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.65ubet −154 → close −154 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:341167 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.9% · actual 2 · 28.9 min · startedGray's limited rebounding role aligned with her modest 29 minutes and 13% usage rate, as she prioritized playmaking with 4 assists while grabbing just 2 boards in a game where Las Vegas controlled the glass. The under cashed despite her solid floor time because she operated primarily as a facilitator rather than a rebounder in the team's ball-movement offense.

Jackie Young Over 19.5 PTSWIN +1.07ubet +107 → close −108 · CLV +3.6¢ · bet_clv:341166 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.0% · actual 24 · 27.6 min · startedYoung's efficient 10-21 shooting night (47.6% FG) combined with her team-high 35% usage rate pushed her comfortably over 19.5, as the Aces' offensive flow ran through her in a blowout win (+16 rating).

Jewell Loyd Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.48ubet −209 → close −205 · CLV −0.4¢ · bet_clv:341165 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.1% · actual 7 · 23.1 min · started

A'ja Wilson Over 8.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −144 → close −144 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344053 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.8% · unexplained · actual 3 · 27.4 min · startedWilson's 27 minutes of action and early foul trouble (2 PF) limited her rebounding opportunities despite solid scoring efficiency, resulting in just 3 boards well short of the 8.5 target.

Jackie Young Over 18.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −120 · CLV −1.6¢ · bet_clv:344048 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 24 · 27.6 min · startedYoung's efficient 10-21 shooting night (47.6% FG) and high usage rate (35%) at full availability (28 minutes, no fouls) easily carried her past 18.5 points. She made 4 three-pointers and dominated the glass with 7 rebounds, driving her final tally to 24.

Data fetches · 50

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 14 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 89 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 106 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 107 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 296 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 383 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 99 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 521 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 159 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 450 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 520 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 521 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 876 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 590 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 631 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 633 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 634 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 773 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 849 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 852 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 853 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.