Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.
Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted
Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Our picks, raw · 15
Jessica Shepard · U 5.5 assists−135value_edge_pct +1.74 · kelly 0.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 1
Makayla Timpson · U 6.5 rebounds−120value_edge_pct −0.69 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4
Jessica Shepard · U 11.5 rebounds−138value_edge_pct −1.90 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5
Jessica Shepard · U 10.5 rebounds−114value_edge_pct −2.10 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7
Jessica Shepard · U 4.5 assists+106value_edge_pct −2.86 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9
Odyssey Sims · U 8.5 points−122value_edge_pct −3.13 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10
Jessica Shepard · U 13.5 points−111value_edge_pct −3.14 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11
Kelsey Mitchell · O 23.5 points−120value_edge_pct −3.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Kelsey Mitchell · O 24.5 points+100value_edge_pct −3.73 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14
Jessica Shepard · U 14.5 points−113value_edge_pct −3.96 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15
Jessica Shepard · U 12.5 points−108value_edge_pct −4.24 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17
Odyssey Sims · U 9.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.53 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19
Paige Bueckers · U 22.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.78 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 22
Alanna Smith · O 5.5 rebounds−132value_edge_pct −4.79 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 23
Jessica Shepard · U 9.5 rebounds+104value_edge_pct −5.07 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 24
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 21
Odyssey Sims Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.61ubet −163 → close −163 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:339636 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 3 · 16.3 min · benchSims' limited 16-minute run and low 16% usage rate kept her playmaking opportunities scarce, resulting in just 3 assists despite playing over 15 minutes. Her inefficient 0-3 shooting also likely forced her into a more passive role rather than setting up teammates.
Makayla Timpson Under 6.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −120 → close −140 · CLV +3.8¢ · bet_clv:339642 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 33.9 min · startedTimpson nearly doubled the line with 12 rebounds in 34 minutes, benefiting from heavy offensive rebounding activity and extended floor time in what appears to have been a closely contested game (+1 +/-). The under bet needed her to grab 6 or fewer boards, but her rebounding volume far exceeded that threshold despite modest scoring (11 pts on 15% usage).
Awak Kuier Over 3.5 REBWIN +0.65ubet −155 → close −156 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:342516 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.8% · actual 8 · 35.7 min · startedKuier's 36 minutes and active interior presence generated 8 rebounds, doubling the over line despite modest 11% usage, as her elite rim protection (7 blocks) kept her engaged on the glass throughout.
Alanna Smith Over 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −132 → close −132 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:339640 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.2% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 2 · 9.6 min · bench · excusedSmith was essentially a non-factor with just 10 minutes played and 5% usage, finishing with only 2 rebounds—likely due to limited court time and foul trouble (5 fouls) that kept her benched for stretches of the game.
Jessica Shepard Under 4.5 ASTWIN +1.06ubet +106 → close −109 · CLV +3.6¢ · bet_clv:339643 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.2% · actual 1 · 35.5 min · startedShepard operated almost entirely as a scorer tonight, recording just 1 assist despite 36 minutes and 26% usage—her 11-16 shooting efficiency kept her volume high but her playmaking involvement remained minimal. The under cashed decisively as she prioritized scoring (26 points) over facilitating, turning the ball over only twice while playing a high-volume isolation role.
Alanna Smith Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.51ubet −196 → close −191 · CLV −0.6¢ · bet_clv:339641 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.1% · actual 0 · 9.6 min · bench · excusedSmith played only 10 minutes with minimal involvement (5% usage), recording no assists and no field goal attempts in a limited role that made the under an easy cash.
Paige Bueckers Under 22.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:342511 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.3% · actual 13 · 34.7 min · startedBueckers shot just 5-16 from the field (31%) and misfired on all three-point attempts despite playing 35 minutes, leaving her well short of the 22.5 line. Her poor efficiency and low 22% usage rate limited her scoring despite heavy minutes.
Jessica Shepard Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.74ubet −135 → close −185 · CLV +7.5¢ · bet_clv:339644 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 1 · 35.5 min · startedShepard's assist total stayed well below the line as she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator, recording just 1 assist while posting 26 points on efficient 11-16 shooting with elevated usage (26%) that prioritized her own shot-taking.
Odyssey Sims Under 8.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:339638 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 2 · 16.3 min · benchSims managed just 2 points on 0-3 shooting despite 16 minutes played, as her inefficient offensive touch (26% TS%) and low volume (16% usage) kept her well clear of the 8.5-point line. Her role remained limited to complementary duties, with her impact coming primarily through assists (3) and steals (2) rather than scoring.
Kelsey Mitchell Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.53ubet −190 → close −210 · CLV +2.2¢ · bet_clv:339635 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.1% · actual 5 · 34.7 min · startedMitchell's elite offensive efficiency (75% TS, 35% usage) and heavy shot diet kept her heavily involved in the offense, naturally generating 5 assists over 35 minutes despite her primary role as a scorer. The over easily cleared as her playmaking touch complemented her 37-point explosion.
Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTSWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close −101 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:339633 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 37 · 34.7 min · startedMitchell's perfect 15-15 shooting from the line combined with efficient three-point shooting (4-7) lifted her well past 24.5, as she dominated usage at 35% while staying on the floor for 35 minutes and avoiding foul trouble with just 4 PF.
Kelsey Mitchell Over 23.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −120 → close −128 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:339634 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 37 · 34.7 min · startedMitchell's perfect 15-15 from the free-throw line combined with 4-7 three-point shooting propelled her well past the 23.5 line, as she dominated usage at 35% while playing all 35 available minutes. Her elite 75% true shooting efficiency on high volume was the decisive factor in cruising to 37 points.
Paige Bueckers Under 6.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −143 → close −143 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:339632 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.8% · unexplained · actual 8 · 34.7 min · startedBueckers exceeded the 6.5 assist line despite inefficient scoring (5-16 FG, 37% TS) because she played heavy usage minutes (35 min) and functioned as the primary ball-handler, recording 8 assists with zero turnovers. The under missed as she prioritized playmaking over scoring efficiency.
Jessica Shepard Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −113 → close −114 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:339646 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 26 · 35.5 min · startedShepard was exceptionally efficient from the field, shooting 11-16 (69%) and 1-1 from three, nearly doubling the projection despite modest usage at 26%. She played all 36 available minutes and stayed out of foul trouble with just 2 PF, allowing her to maintain the aggressive offensive role that generated her season-high output.
Jessica Shepard Under 11.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −138 → close −152 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:339649 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.9% · actual 8 · 35.5 min · startedShepard's efficient 26-point night on high volume (26% usage, 11-16 FG) didn't translate to rebounding activity—she grabbed just 8 boards in 36 minutes, falling short of the 11.5 line despite the heavy workload, suggesting limited offensive rebounding opportunities and/or defensive rebounding distribution to teammates.
Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 REBWIN +0.88ubet −114 → close −141 · CLV +5.2¢ · bet_clv:339648 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.2% · actual 8 · 35.5 min · startedShepard stayed under the 10.5 rebound line despite logging 36 minutes and taking 16 shots, as she pulled down just 8 boards—limited by the game's overall rebounding distribution and her team's offensive efficiency keeping possession chains shorter.
Jessica Shepard Under 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −111 → close −128 · CLV +3.5¢ · bet_clv:339647 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 26 · 35.5 min · startedShepard nearly doubled the projection by shooting 11-16 (69%) from the field with efficient inside scoring, far exceeding the volume and accuracy needed to clear 13.5 points. Her 36 minutes and 26% usage rate provided the opportunity, but the exceptional 67% true shooting—particularly the 2-1 margin in makes despite only 8 free-throw attempts—was the decisive factor.
Odyssey Sims Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.39ubet −256 · bet_clv:339639 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 68.4% · actual 0 · 16.3 min · bench
Jessica Shepard Under 9.5 REBWIN +1.04ubet +104 → close +104 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:342521 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.5% · actual 8 · 35.5 min · startedShepard's offensive load (26 pts on 67% TS) kept her usage high but limited rebounding opportunities, and she fell one board short of the 9.5 line despite 36 minutes played. The efficient scoring game—particularly her 11-16 FG night—meant fewer second-chance situations for her to crash the glass.
Jessica Shepard Under 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −108 · bet_clv:339645 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · unexplained · actual 26 · 35.5 min · startedShepard's 26 points came on exceptional efficiency, shooting 11-16 from the field (69%) and 3-8 from free throw with minimal volume needed to exceed the 12.5-point line, compounded by her 36 minutes of playing time and 26% usage rate. She more than doubled the projection through elite shot selection and conversion rather than high-volume volume, making the under an easy miss on a night she simply couldn't miss from the floor.
Odyssey Sims Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −128 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:339637 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 2 · 16.3 min · bench
Data fetches · 55
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 59 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 60 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 72 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 73 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 75 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 78 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 95 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 100 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 115 ms
sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 299 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 303 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 305 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 336 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 291 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 678 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 921 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 77 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 94 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 192 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 253 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 275 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 298 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 333 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 339 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 397 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 439 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 441 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 465 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 466 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 470 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 472 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 476 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 492 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pa)ok 200 · 524 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 547 ms
odds game timelinefailed · 6003 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed · 6002 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6002 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6003 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6003 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6003 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6001 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6004 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6003 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed · 6004 ms
odds player timeline (pa)failed · 6004 ms