WNBA · Finalupdated 13:55 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

MIN expected to win by about 1 · both teams together expected to score about 166 points · odds to win: MIN 1.83, WAS 2.03

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 21:53 UTC

MIN 94 – WAS 84

Final · 5 of 9 picks won

9 picks checked: 5 won, 4 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

O. Miles · Over 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.20 · last price before start 1.60Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.20 · Our price was 17.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.14 by FanDuel (Thu 03:34 UTC); latest 1.85 at BetRivers (Fri 21:53 UTC). The 4.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 2.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

N. Coffey · Under 6.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 2.00Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

K. McBride · Under 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.91Won +0.93 per 1 staked

N. Howard · Under 13.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.80Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

S. Austin · Over 16.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.83Won +0.88 per 1 staked

O. Miles · Over 17.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.87 · last price before start 1.84Won +0.87 per 1 staked

O. Miles · Over 4.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.85 · last price before start 1.85Won +0.85 per 1 staked

C. Williams · Under 15.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.77 per 1 staked

L. Betts · Over 4.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.96 · last price before start 1.85Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

2 players checked · 2 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 2 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying WAS

9 players have no line from any bookmaker: McBride (33 expected minutes) · Miles (33 min) · +7 more

Washington Mysticsplaying MIN

SMichaela Onyenwere · 25 min expected

assists 1.5 → 0 actual

Lauren Betts · 19 min expected

points + assists 7.5 → 4 actual

9 players have no line from any bookmaker: Citron (32 expected minutes) · Austin (30 min) · +7 more

What could go wrong

updated 13:55 UTC

Who is out

Littlepage-Buggs · did not play last game

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Buenavida · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:30 UTC)

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 25 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Joklova, Delaere, Dugalic, Florez) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 203 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Buenavida out (Sat 21:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 2 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 9 picks won5 won, 4 lost · +0.30 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.9% higher than the last before the start · 17 lines checked, 8 scored but not picked · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

2 other players with a posted line

Michaela Onyenwere · assists 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.7 min (25 expected) · last price 1.68

Lauren Betts · points + assists 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 12.6 min (19 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs MIN · last 16 games · MIN leads · WAS record 6–10 · average score 76.8–78.0 · WAS has lost by 1.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Aug · MIN 94 at WAS 84WAS lost

24 Jun · MIN 78 at WAS 76WAS lost

21 Jun · WAS 84 at MIN 79WAS won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.8 points · 33.3 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.6% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.6 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up82.9 points · 30.1 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.8 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.1−3.3 vs average

WAS gives up 82.9 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.1−4.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 5, expected total 163.5 (Thu 20:24 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 1, expected total 166 (Fri 21:53 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 13

Olivia Miles · O 3.5 rebounds+120value_edge_pct +28.93 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Kayla McBride · U 2.5 rebounds−108value_edge_pct −1.27 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Natasha Howard · U 13.5 points−108value_edge_pct −1.87 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Lauren Betts · O 4.5 rebounds−104value_edge_pct −1.94 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Shakira Austin · O 16.5 points−113value_edge_pct −2.05 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Olivia Miles · O 17.5 points−115value_edge_pct −2.19 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Shakira Austin · O 17.5 points−102value_edge_pct −2.76 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

Shakira Austin · O 18.5 points−106value_edge_pct −3.64 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 21

Olivia Miles · O 16.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.13 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 25

Nia Coffey · U 6.5 points+100value_edge_pct −4.22 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 26

Courtney Williams · U 15.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 27

Olivia Miles · O 14.5 points−107value_edge_pct −4.74 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 30

Olivia Miles · O 4.5 assists−117value_edge_pct −5.31 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 33

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 17

Courtney Williams Under 15.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −130 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344752 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 13 · 31.3 min · startedWilliams stayed under the line despite efficient shooting (55% TS) because her 19% usage rate limited her scoring opportunities—she took only 11 shots in 31 minutes, translating to just 13 points. Her role remained facilitator-heavy with 8 assists, capping her offensive volume well short of the 15.5-point threshold.

Shakira Austin Over 18.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −106 → close −110 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:344755 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 17 · 33.5 min · started

Olivia Miles Over 17.5 PTSWIN +0.87ubet −115 → close −119 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:344767 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.3% · actual 24 · 29.2 min · startedMiles exceeded the 17.5-point line with 24 points on a 45% true shooting rate and 42% usage rate across 29 minutes of action. Her efficient 10-22 shooting night, combined with consistent scoring opportunities, delivered the over comfortably.

Nia Coffey Under 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +100 → close +100 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344760 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · unexplained · actual 8 · 30.3 min · started

Michaela Onyenwere Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −146 → close −146 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344763 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.4% · unexplained · actual 0 · 25.7 min · started

Olivia Miles Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.85ubet −117 → close −117 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344764 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.1% · actual 7 · 29.2 min · started

Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTSWIN +0.88ubet −113 → close −120 · CLV +1.5¢ · bet_clv:344753 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 52.0% · actual 17 · 33.5 min · startedAustin's 7-13 shooting night (54% FG) in 34 minutes of heavy usage (27%) provided the scoring punch needed to clear 16.5, as she converted efficiently from the field despite a quiet three-point line.

Olivia Miles Over 16.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −130 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:344765 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 24 · 29.2 min · started

Natasha Howard Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −154 → close −154 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344761 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · actual 5 · 32.6 min · startedHoward's elite efficiency and high volume—83% true shooting on 20% usage over 33 minutes—kept her on the floor and in rhythm to rack up 5 assists, doubling the over line. She also committed zero turnovers, allowing her to facilitate freely without the ball-stopping mistakes that typically limit playmaking.

Lauren Betts Over 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −104 → close −118 · CLV +3.1¢ · bet_clv:344759 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 12.6 min · benchBetts played only 13 minutes and grabbed just 1 rebound, falling 4 short of the over; limited run and low usage (10%) kept her well below the 4.5 threshold despite the playing time she did receive.

Olivia Miles Over 14.5 PTSWIN +0.93ubet −107 → close −107 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344766 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · actual 24 · 29.2 min · started

Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.93ubet −108 → close −110 · CLV +0.5¢ · bet_clv:344756 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.3% · actual 1 · 35.3 min · startedMcBride stayed on the perimeter all night, attempting 12 shots with just one rebound in 35 minutes—she was used as a scorer (20% usage) rather than a rebounder, and her four three-pointers kept her away from the glass.

Kayla McBride Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −174 → close −174 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:344757 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.6% · unexplained · actual 3 · 35.3 min · startedMcBride hit the over with a modest 3 assists despite moderate usage (20%), as she played all 35 minutes and operated as a secondary ball-handler in an efficient offensive game where Las Vegas's spacing kept defenses honest.

Olivia Miles Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +120 → close −166 · CLV +17.0¢ · bet_clv:344768 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 29.2 min · startedMiles fell one board short despite heavy offensive involvement (42% usage, 29 min), as her scoring creation (24 pts, 7 ast) came primarily through perimeter shooting rather than interior activity, and five personal fouls limited her ability to crash the glass aggressively.

Kiki Iriafen Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.49ubet −203 → close −210 · CLV +0.7¢ · bet_clv:344758 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.1% · actual 1 · 32.0 min · started

Natasha Howard Under 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −108 → close −125 · CLV +3.6¢ · bet_clv:344762 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 21 · 32.6 min · startedHoward torched the under on an efficient 10-12 shooting night (83% FG), scoring 21 points in 33 minutes while staying out of foul trouble with just 4 PF. Her elite finishing around the rim—particularly on high-volume close-range attempts—turned what looked like a modest usage rate (20%) into well above the 13.5-point threshold.

Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −102 → close −109 · CLV +1.7¢ · bet_clv:344754 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 17 · 33.5 min · startedAustin fell one point short despite solid efficiency (58% TS on 27% usage), as her 7-13 shooting output simply didn't generate enough volume to clear 17.5 in 34 minutes of play. She needed just one more made field goal to hit the over, but came up one shot short.

Data fetches · 32

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 14 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 26 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 109 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 134 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 168 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 246 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 137 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 499 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 511 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 538 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 729 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 627 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 628 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 629 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 633 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 661 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 663 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pa)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 152 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 977 ms

odds player timeline (pa)ok 200 · 492 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1113 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 494 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1228 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.