WNBA · Finalupdated 10:09 UTC

Portland Fire vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

POR expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 183 points · odds to win: POR 1.70, TOR 2.21

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 21:53 UTC

POR 79 – TOR 82

Final · 5 of 7 picks won

7 picks checked: 5 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

E. Engstler · Under 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.93Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.97 · Our price was 1.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.93, 55456 min ago

First offered at 1.80 by Pinnacle (Fri 05:33 UTC); latest 1.93 at Pinnacle (Fri 21:53 UTC). The 9.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

K. Rice · Under 3.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.96 · last price before start 1.98Won +0.96 per 1 staked

B. Sykes · Over 12.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.83Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

B. Carleton · Over 14.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.78 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.78 per 1 staked

K. Rice · Over 11.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.76 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.76 per 1 staked

I. Harrison · Over 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.75 · last price before start 1.68Won +0.75 per 1 staked

A. Morrow · Under 8.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.05 · last price before start 2.00Won +1.05 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 7 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying TOR

SBridget Carleton · 31 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 27 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

SEmily Engstler · 24 min expected

points + rebounds 14.5 → 18 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Leite (28 expected minutes) · Puoch (18 min) · +6 more

Toronto Tempoplaying POR

SKiki Rice · 29 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 28 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SIsabelle Harrison · 23 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 10 actual

Aneesah Morrow · 23 min expected

assists 2.5 → 0 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allemand (27 expected minutes) · Sykes (22 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 10:09 UTC

Who is out

Green · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 00:00 UTC) · 21, 10 and 4 min in the last 3 games

J. Harrison (POR) · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 01:15 UTC) · 16, 23 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Out Conde · left calf · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

Out Sabally · left calf · TOR

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Harrison, Oblak, Harrison, Morrow) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 163 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Green out (Fri 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: J. Harrison (POR) out (Wed 01:15 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 7 picks won5 won, 2 lost · +2.30 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.6% higher than the last before the start · 11 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Mon 02:52 UTC

Isabelle Harrison · rebounds 5.5 → 10 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.4 min (23 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.75 → Won +0.75 per 1 staked

Kiki Rice · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.8 min (29 expected)

Pick: Under 3.5 at 1.96 → Won +0.96 per 1 staked

5 other players with a posted line

Aneesah Morrow · assists 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 7.2 min (23 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.52, Under 1.50

Megan DiLeo · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 20.9 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Laura Juskaite · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.5 min (28 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.12, Under —

Emily Engstler · points + rebounds 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (24 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.85

Bridget Carleton · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.6 min (31 expected) · last price 1.68

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs POR · last 3 games · POR leads · TOR record 1–2 · average score 81.7–91.7 · TOR has lost by 10 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Aug · POR 79 at TOR 82TOR won

6 Aug · TOR 83 at POR 97TOR lost

23 May · POR 99 at TOR 80TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.9 vs average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.1+7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had TOR expected to win by 1, expected total 187 (Thu 19:53 UTC) and later POR expected to win by 2.5, expected total 183 (Fri 21:53 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 9

Kiki Rice · U 3.5 rebounds−104value_edge_pct −1.94 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Aneesah Morrow · U 8.5 rebounds+105value_edge_pct −2.15 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Isabelle Harrison · O 5.5 rebounds−134value_edge_pct −2.24 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Emily Engstler · U 9.5 points−103value_edge_pct −2.56 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Aneesah Morrow · U 9.5 rebounds−141value_edge_pct −2.64 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16

Brittney Sykes · O 12.5 points−120value_edge_pct −2.98 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Bridget Carleton · O 14.5 points−128value_edge_pct −3.80 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 22

Brittney Sykes · O 13.5 points−101value_edge_pct −4.78 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 31

Kiki Rice · O 11.5 points−132value_edge_pct −4.79 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 32

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 11

Brittney Sykes Over 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −120 → close −120 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:346621 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 0 · 1.5 min · bench · excused

Kiki Rice Over 11.5 PTSWIN +0.76ubet −132 → close −132 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:346622 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.2% · actual 19 · 31.8 min · startedRice's elite 7-9 shooting (78% FG) combined with high-volume free-throw attempts (6 FT) easily cleared the over, as she dominated early and stayed aggressive throughout her 32 minutes. Her 82% true shooting efficiency was the key driver—she converted at an exceptional rate in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble (3 PF) and remained on the court.

Brittney Sykes Over 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −101 → close −101 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:346620 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.8% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 0 · 1.5 min · bench · excusedSykes played just 2 minutes with 1 personal foul, effectively sidelined early and unable to contribute on the scoresheet. With minimal court time and zero shot attempts, she couldn't approach the 13.5-point threshold despite the 30% usage rate context.

Aneesah Morrow Under 9.5 REBWIN +0.71ubet −141 → close −148 · CLV +1.2¢ · bet_clv:346624 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.0% · actual 2 · 7.2 min · bench · excusedMorrow played only 7 minutes and grabbed just 2 rebounds, crushed by limited court time that made the 9.5 rebound target unreachable regardless of efficiency. Her minimal role—lowest usage rate at 19%—meant far fewer possessions and opportunities to crash the glass.

Isabelle Harrison Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −177 → close −188 · CLV +1.4¢ · bet_clv:346618 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 28.4 min · startedHarrison recorded only 1 assist despite heavy offensive usage (38%) and 28 minutes, as she functioned primarily as a scorer and rebounder rather than a playmaker in this game. Her assist-to-usage rate fell well short of what the over implied, with most of her 25 points coming from direct scoring rather than ball movement.

Kiki Rice Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.96ubet −104 → close −102 · CLV −0.5¢ · bet_clv:346623 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · actual 3 · 31.8 min · startedRice's elite scoring efficiency (7-9 FG, 82% TS) kept her usage low at 17%, limiting her rebounding opportunities despite 32 minutes played. She crashed the glass minimally with just 3 boards, staying under the 3.5 line as a perimeter-focused scorer rather than a volume rebounder.

Emily Engstler Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −103 → close −107 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:346626 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 30.2 min · startedEngstler exceeded the 9.5-point line despite shooting just 38% from the field, benefiting from elevated usage (22%) and 30 minutes of floor time that provided enough volume to reach 13 points on modest efficiency.

Isabelle Harrison Over 5.5 REBWIN +0.75ubet −134 → close −146 · CLV +2.1¢ · bet_clv:346619 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.0% · actual 10 · 28.4 min · startedHarrison secured 10 rebounds in 28 minutes by dominating the glass on a team-high 38% usage rate, nearly doubling the betting line. Her presence in the paint—underscored by 1 block and efficient interior scoring (9-10 FT)—made her a consistent rebounding threat throughout.

Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −130 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:346627 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 18 · 32.6 min · startedCarleton's efficient 5-10 three-point shooting (50%) provided the bulk of her 18 points despite modest volume, as she maintained high accuracy from deep to comfortably clear the 14.5-point line in 33 minutes of play.

Aneesah Morrow Under 8.5 REBWIN +1.05ubet +105 → close +100 · CLV +1.2¢ · bet_clv:346625 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.7% · actual 2 · 7.2 min · bench · excusedMorrow was limited to just 7 minutes of action and grabbed only 2 rebounds, well short of the 8.5 line, due to minimal court time that severely restricted her rebounding opportunities. Her bench role and low usage (19%) made accumulating boards nearly impossible.

Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −146 → close −146 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:346628 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.7% · unexplained · actual 4 · 32.6 min · startedCarleton fell one rebound short despite 33 minutes and solid offensive efficiency (61% TS), as she logged just 4 boards in a game where her 22% usage rate limited her overall volume and rebounding opportunities.

Data fetches · 43

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 47 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 58 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 158 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 193 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 195 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 200 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 106 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 381 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 587 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 618 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 619 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 650 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 652 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 653 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 908 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 973 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 5056 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pr)ok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 269 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 527 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 612 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 611 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 614 ms

odds player timeline (pr)ok 200 · 614 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.