WNBA · Finalupdated 13:56 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Los Angeles Sparks

at Los Angeles Sparks

LAS expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 171 points · odds to win: CON 2.71, LAS 1.49

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 23:54 UTC

CON 68 – LAS 77

Final · 4 of 7 picks won

7 picks checked: 4 won, 3 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, LAS = Los Angeles Sparks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

L. Lacan · Under 11.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.95 · last price before start 1.94Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.95 · Our price was 0.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.84 by Pinnacle (Sun 00:25 UTC); latest 1.84 at Pinnacle (Sun 00:25 UTC). The 12.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

A. Atkins · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.88Won +0.83 per 1 staked

C. Leger-Walker · Under 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.82Won +0.82 per 1 staked

R. Burrell · Over 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.78Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

K. Burke · Over 8.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.75 · last price before start 1.75Won +0.75 per 1 staked

C. Brink · Over 5.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.81Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

M. Akoa Makani · Under 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.82Won +0.82 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying LAS

SCharlisse Leger-Walker · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 5 actual

SLeila Lacan · 28 min expected

points 11.5 → 13 actual

SOlivia Nelson-Ododa · 27 min expected

points 13.5 → 2 actual

SDiamond Miller · 23 min expected

points 11.5 → 5 actual

SKennedy Burke · 23 min expected

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Saniya Rivers · 23 min expected

points 7.5 → 14 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Angloma (14 expected minutes) · Beers (13 min) · +3 more

Los Angeles Sparksplaying CON

SDearica Hamby · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 10 actual

SNneka Ogwumike · 30 min expected

points 15.5 → 11 actual

SRae Burrell · 30 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

SAriel Atkins · 25 min expected

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

SErica Wheeler · 22 min expected

assists 4.5 → 5 actual

Cameron Brink · 20 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 1 actual

Monique Akoa Makani · 15 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (10 expected minutes) · Park (10 min) · Morgan (8 min)

What could go wrong

updated 13:56 UTC

Who is out

Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Beers · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 20:15 UTC) · 22, 22 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Out Marshall · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 0, 8 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Out Edwards · left ankle · CON

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 01:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 6 players (Burke, Miller, Rivers, Hamby, Ogwumike, Burrell) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Brink: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 25.9 in the last 5 games, about 5.9 fewer than usual

Makani: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 140 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Martin out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Beers out (Mon 20:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Marshall out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 4 of 7 picks won4 won, 3 lost · +0.21 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.2% higher than the last before the start · 13 lines checked, 6 scored but not picked · checked Tue 01:52 UTC

Cameron Brink · rebounds 5.5 → 1 · 4.5 below the line · played 11.9 min (20 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.88 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 22.3 min (28 expected)

Pick: Under 9.5 at 1.82 → Won +0.82 per 1 staked

Kennedy Burke · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.8 min (23 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 1.75 → Won +0.75 per 1 staked

Rae Burrell · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.1 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.79 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Ariel Atkins · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.7 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.83 → Won +0.83 per 1 staked

Leila Lacan · points 11.5 → 13 · 1.5 above the line · played 28.9 min (28 expected)

Pick: Under 11.5 at 1.95 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

7 other players with a posted line

Saniya Rivers · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 27.5 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 13.5 → 2 · 11.5 below the line · played 10 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.79

Monique Akoa Makani · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 11.4 min (15 expected) · last price 1.89

Diamond Miller · points 11.5 → 5 · 6.5 below the line · played 13.4 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Dearica Hamby · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 20.6 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Nneka Ogwumike · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 33.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Erica Wheeler · assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.3 min (22 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAS vs CON · last 16 games · CON leads · LAS record 4–12 · average score 75.8–83.6 · LAS has lost by 7.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Aug · CON 68 at LAS 77LAS won

18 Aug · LAS 77 at CON 85LAS lost

30 May · LAS 81 at CON 84LAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.1+4.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAS expected to win by 4, expected total 169.5 (Sat 12:15 UTC) and later LAS expected to win by 5, expected total 171 (Sat 23:54 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 11

Ariel Atkins · O 2.5 assists−121value_edge_pct −0.03 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Cameron Brink · O 5.5 rebounds−114value_edge_pct −1.56 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Charlisse Leger-Walker · U 9.5 points−122value_edge_pct −2.63 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Leila Lacan · U 11.5 points−105value_edge_pct −3.40 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Charlisse Leger-Walker · U 8.5 points+100value_edge_pct −3.98 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Cameron Brink · O 4.5 rebounds−130value_edge_pct −4.09 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Rae Burrell · O 2.5 assists−126value_edge_pct −4.29 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Leila Lacan · U 12.5 points−119value_edge_pct −4.74 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Kennedy Burke · O 8.5 points−134value_edge_pct −4.90 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

Monique Akoa Makani · U 7.5 points−122value_edge_pct −4.91 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Monique Akoa Makani · U 6.5 points−112value_edge_pct −5.07 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 21

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 13

Leila Lacan Under 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −105 → close −106 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:348526 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 28.9 min · startedLacan's 13 points came despite poor efficiency (6-14 FG, 45% TS), as her 29 minutes and 21% usage rate gave her enough volume to clear the 11.5 threshold in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble with just one personal.

Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:348530 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · actual 5 · 22.3 min · startedLeger-Walker's inconsistent shot selection doomed the over, as she connected on just 2-of-8 from the field (25%) while posting a 31% true shooting percentage across 22 minutes of play. Her modest 17% usage rate meant limited offensive opportunities, keeping her well short of the 9.5-point threshold.

Rae Burrell Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −126 → close −128 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:348524 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 30.1 min · startedBurrell was a scorer, not a facilitator tonight—she shot efficiently (8-13 FG) and took 28% usage but distributed just 2 assists in 30 minutes, staying in attack mode rather than playmaking. Three turnovers and a ball-dominant role left little room for the helper column despite her scoring efficiency.

Cameron Brink Over 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −114 → close −124 · CLV +2.1¢ · bet_clv:348522 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 11.9 min · benchBrink was limited to just 12 minutes and fouled out with 6 fouls, which severely restricted her opportunities on the glass; despite perfect shooting efficiency, the combination of foul trouble and minimal court time left her well short of the 5.5 rebound threshold.

Cameron Brink Over 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −130 → close −134 · CLV +0.7¢ · bet_clv:348521 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 11.9 min · benchBrink played just 12 minutes and fouled out with 6 PF, severely limiting her opportunity to crash the boards despite efficient scoring; she grabbed only 1 rebound in that shortened run.

Monique Akoa Makani Under 6.5 PTSWIN +0.89ubet −112 → close −112 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:351049 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 2 · 11.4 min · benchAkoa Makani saw just 11 minutes off the bench with 8% usage, resulting in only one field goal attempt and 2 points, well short of the 6.5-point line. Limited playing time in a blowout environment (−9 +/−) kept her scoring opportunities minimal.

Monique Akoa Makani Under 7.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:351048 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.3% · actual 2 · 11.4 min · benchMakani severely underperformed the over despite efficient shooting, logging just 11 minutes with minimal 8% usage, which limited her scoring opportunities well below the 7.5-point line. The blowout context and bench role kept her touches scarce enough to easily cash the under.

Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.83ubet −121 → close −114 · CLV −1.5¢ · bet_clv:348528 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.7% · actual 3 · 24.7 min · startedAtkins cleared the mark with 3 assists despite modest offensive efficiency (2-5 FG), as her 25 minutes and 13% usage rate kept her on the floor in a role that prioritized ball movement over scoring.

Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 8.5 PTSWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close −104 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:348529 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.0% · actual 5 · 22.3 min · startedLeger-Walker shot just 2-for-8 from the field (25%) and 1-for-3 from three despite playing 22 minutes, unable to generate efficient scoring opportunities on a 17% usage rate. Her 31% true shooting percentage was well below the threshold needed to reach 8.5 points, making the under an easy cover.

Kennedy Burke Over 8.5 PTSWIN +0.75ubet −134 → close −134 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:348523 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.5% · actual 11 · 30.8 min · startedBurke's 11 points cleared the 8.5-point line despite inefficient shooting (5-13 FG, 0-6 3PT) because she logged 31 minutes and maintained a 23% usage rate, generating enough volume to hit the total. Her elite perimeter defense (5 steals, 3 blocks) kept her on the floor in a game where she was a defensive anchor despite the offensive struggle.

Saniya Rivers Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.53ubet −189 · bet_clv:351052 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.4% · actual 3 · 27.5 min · started

Leila Lacan Under 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −119 → close −119 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:348527 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.8% · unexplained · actual 13 · 28.9 min · startedLacan's 29 minutes of court time and 21% usage rate gave her enough opportunities to edge past the line, converting 6 of 14 field-goal attempts despite a 45% true shooting percentage that was below her season average.

Diamond Miller Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.46ubet −217 · bet_clv:348525 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.2% · actual 0 · 13.4 min · bench

Data fetches · 54

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 64 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 65 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 262 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 264 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 347 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 360 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 97 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 473 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 538 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 559 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 924 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 192 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 217 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 797 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 221 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 801 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 801 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 296 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 877 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 317 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 896 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 346 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 382 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 414 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 688 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 725 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 787 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 853 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1039 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.