WNBA · Finalupdated 13:59 UTC

Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

NYL expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 186.5 points · odds to win: IND 2.36, NYL 1.63

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 22:00 UTC

IND 102 – NYL 109

Final · 3 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 3 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, NYL = New York Liberty.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Mitchell · Over 25.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.92 · last price before start 1.93Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.92 · Our price was 0.5% lower than the last price before the start.

Pinnacle 1.84, 54265 min ago

First offered at 1.83 by Pinnacle (Sat 15:53 UTC); latest 1.93 at Pinnacle (Sat 22:58 UTC). The 25.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

B. Stewart · Under 23.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.85 · last price before start 1.80Won +0.85 per 1 staked

M. Timpson · Over 6.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.78 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.78 per 1 staked

M. Johannes · Over 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.03 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

R. Allen · Over 6.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.84 · last price before start 2.06Won +0.84 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

8 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying NYL

11 players have no line from any bookmaker: Clark (34 expected minutes) · Mitchell (34 min) · +9 more

New York Libertyplaying IND

SBreanna Stewart · 30 min expected

points 23.5 → 22 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 29 min expected

points 17.5 → 12 actual

SJonquel Jones · 25 min expected

points 14.5 → 19 actual

SLeonie Fiebich · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 20 actual

SPauline Astier · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Rebecca Allen · 26 min expected

points 6.5 → 9 actual

Marine Johannes · 23 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Han Xu · 17 min expected

points + rebounds 9.5 → 10 actual

2 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gardner (6 expected minutes) · Fauthoux (4 min)

What could go wrong

updated 13:59 UTC

Who is out

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Balogun · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC)

Fauthoux · did not play last game

Carrera · did not play last game

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Dantas · did not play last game

VanSlooten · did not play last game

Onyiah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 12 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Johnson · did not play last game

May not play Boston · right leg · IND

Clark · likely to play · back · IND

IND has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Russell, Johnson, Astier, Fiebich) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Xu: expected to play 17 minutes, averaged 11.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.6 more than usual

Allen: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 14.5 in the last 5 games, about 11.5 more than usual

Johannes: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 13.2 in the last 5 games, about 9.8 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 8 of the 79 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Balogun out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fauthoux out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dantas out · did not play

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Johnson out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 5 picks won3 won, 2 lost · +0.47 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.0% lower than the last before the start · 12 lines checked, 7 scored but not picked · checked Mon 23:52 UTC

Rebecca Allen · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 15.6 min (26 expected)

Pick: Over 6.5 at 1.84 → Won +0.84 per 1 staked

Marine Johannes · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 13.2 min (23 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 2.03 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Breanna Stewart · points 23.5 → 22 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.9 min (30 expected)

Pick: Under 23.5 at 1.85 → Won +0.85 per 1 staked

5 other players with a posted line

Leonie Fiebich · points 6.5 → 20 · 13.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (20 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Sabrina Ionescu · points 17.5 → 12 · 5.5 below the line · played 32 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.5 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.5 min (20 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Han Xu · points + rebounds 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 11.5 min (17 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs IND · last 19 games · NYL leads · NYL record 14–5 · average score 93.5–85.3 · NYL has won by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Aug · IND 102 at NYL 109NYL won

11 Aug · NYL 92 at IND 106NYL lost

18 Jul · NYL 88 at IND 108NYL lost

6 Jun · IND 75 at NYL 83NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 21.0 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.7 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.4 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.4 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 34.3% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.6 vs average

NYL gives up 86.4 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 3, expected total 184 (Sat 12:15 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 186.5 (Sat 22:00 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 7

Breanna Stewart · U 23.5 points−117value_edge_pct −1.52 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Kelsey Mitchell · O 25.5 points−109value_edge_pct −3.27 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Marine Johannes · O 8.5 points+103value_edge_pct −4.04 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Marine Johannes · O 7.5 points−135value_edge_pct −4.22 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Kelsey Mitchell · O 24.5 points−125value_edge_pct −4.84 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16

Makayla Timpson · O 6.5 points−129value_edge_pct −4.92 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Rebecca Allen · O 6.5 points−119value_edge_pct −4.94 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 12

Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 REBWIN +0.68ubet −148 → close −155 · CLV +1.1¢ · bet_clv:347737 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · actual 8 · 34.9 min · startedStewart stayed under 8.5 despite playing 35 minutes because she grabbed only 8 rebounds on 26% usage, reflecting limited interior involvement in a game where she focused more on perimeter playmaking (7 assists). The under hit at exactly the line.

Rebecca Allen Over 6.5 PTSWIN +0.84ubet −119 → close +106 · CLV −5.8¢ · bet_clv:347732 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.7% · actual 9 · 15.6 min · benchAllen's efficient 3-4 three-point shooting in 16 minutes easily cleared the over, as she connected on 75% from deep despite minimal usage. Her 112% true shooting efficiency was the key driver—she didn't need volume to beat the 6.5-point line.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −109 → close −107 · CLV −0.5¢ · bet_clv:347729 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.5% · bad_price · actual 25 · 32.7 min · startedMitchell fell one point short despite efficient shooting (71% TS on 30% usage), unable to generate enough volume or free-throw attempts (only 6 FTA) to push past 25.5 in her 33 minutes. Her 9-15 FG pace would have required significantly more shot attempts or trips to the line to clear the number.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.56ubet −177 → close −177 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:347727 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.4% · actual 4 · 32.7 min · startedMitchell's 4 assists easily cleared the 1.5 line, driven by her ball-dominant role (30% usage over 33 minutes) and elevated playmaking volume as a primary ballhandler. She converted that opportunity efficiently, posting 71% true shooting while maintaining steady decision-making despite 4 turnovers.

Makayla Timpson Over 6.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −129 → close −132 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:347730 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 10 · 18.9 min · benchTimpson's elite 83% true shooting on 5-of-6 from the field easily cleared the 6.5-point line, converting nearly every opportunity in her 19 minutes of action.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTSWIN +0.80ubet −125 → close −128 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:347728 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · actual 25 · 32.7 min · startedMitchell's efficient 60% FG and 50% 3PT shooting on high volume (30% usage over 33 minutes) easily cleared the modest 24.5-point line, finishing with 25 points on strong 9-15 overall accuracy.

Breanna Stewart Under 23.5 PTSWIN +0.85ubet −117 → close −125 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:347736 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.1% · actual 22 · 34.9 min · startedStewart shot just 8-16 from the field and went 0-4 from three, limiting her to 22 points despite playing the full 35 minutes and maintaining solid efficiency otherwise. Her 26% usage rate kept her shot volume modest enough to stay under the 23.5 line.

Lexie Hull Under 5.5 PTSWIN +0.66ubet −152 · bet_clv:347735 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · actual 0 · 12.3 min · bench

Marine Johannes Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +103 · bet_clv:347733 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.3% · unexplained · actual 6 · 13.2 min · bench

Marine Johannes Over 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −135 · bet_clv:347734 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.0% · unexplained · actual 6 · 13.2 min · bench

Pauline Astier Under 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −179 · bet_clv:347731 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.1% · unexplained · actual 3 · 24.5 min · startedAstier grabbed exactly one more rebound than the line predicted despite modest 24 minutes and 17% usage, as she cleaned the glass at a higher rate than her season average in limited action.

Monique Billings Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.51ubet −196 · bet_clv:350247 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.1% · actual 2 · 14.2 min · bench

Data fetches · 43

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 39 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 45 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 50 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 59 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 73 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 116 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 155 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 351 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 353 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 418 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 296 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pr)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 414 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 420 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 426 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 441 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 446 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 450 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 476 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 478 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 496 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 640 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 685 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 752 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 712 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 914 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 847 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 961 ms

odds player timeline (pr)ok 200 · 983 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1162 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1059 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1054 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.