WNBA · Aug 23 gameFull sheet

Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings

FinalSEA 70 – DAL 92Page updated 15:11 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 7 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

7Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Hiedeman · left shoulder · SEA

2 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Malonga, Johnson, Melbourne, Smith, Sims have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 11 of 20 estimates.

Fam: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 6.0 fewer than usual

Kuier: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 7.0 fewer than usual

Ezi MagbegorUnder 5.5 rebounds

WonActual 4

Posted odds2.10Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Ezi’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.10. Last price before tip: 1.75.

Recorded result: +1.10 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Pinnacle on this line: 1.75 · quote observed Sun 20:04 UTC.

First recorded: 1.80 at Pinnacle, Sun 18:15 UTC. Latest included: 1.80 at Pinnacle, Sun 18:15 UTC. The 5.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Jade MelbourneUnder 5.5 assists

WonActual 0

Posted odds1.81

Paige BueckersUnder 22.5 points

LostActual 32

Posted odds1.81

Jessica ShepardUnder 10.5 rebounds

LostActual 11

Posted odds1.79

Awa FamUnder 11.5 points

WonActual 0

Posted odds1.78

Jade MelbourneOver 1.5 rebounds

WonActual 4

Posted odds1.71

Odyssey SimsUnder 2.5 assists

WonActual 0

Posted odds1.74

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Hiedeman · left shoulder · SEA

Players and minutes20 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Seattle Storm

SDominique Malonga · 27 min expected

points 19.5 → 12 actual

SFlau'jae Johnson · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 23 actual

SJade Melbourne · 27 min expected

assists 5.5 → 0 actual

SEzi Magbegor · 25 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 4 actual

SAwa Fam · 20 min expected

points 11.5 → 0 actual

5 more players · no line in this feed

Jordan Horston25 min · source estimate

Taylor Thierry15 min · source estimate

Zia Cooke14 min · source estimate

Katie Lou Samuelson10 min · source estimate

Stefanie Dolson10 min · source estimate

Dallas Wings

SPaige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 22.5 → 32 actual

SArike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 17.5 → 7 actual

SJessica Shepard · 29 min expected

rebounds 10.5 → 11 actual

SAlanna Smith · 24 min expected

points 9.5 → 9 actual

SAwak Kuier · 20 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Odyssey Sims · 24 min expected

assists 2.5 → 0 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Alysha Clark16 min · source estimate

Maddy Siegrist13 min · source estimate

Sug Sutton5 min · source estimate

Li Yueru4 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DAL expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 176 points · odds to win: SEA 4.23, DAL 1.25

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sun 20:04 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 15:11 UTC

Who is out

James · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 18, 13 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Fudd · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 35, 24 and 33 min in the last 3 games

Williams · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 1, 6 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Fam · new starter

Out Hiedeman · left shoulder · SEA

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 20:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Fam: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 6.0 fewer than usual

Kuier: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 7.0 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 8 days off before this game · DAL also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 21 of the 157 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: James out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fudd out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Williams out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Fam new starter · started, 25.4 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 7 picks won5 won, 2 lost · +2.14 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.2% higher than the last before the start · 12 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked Tue 20:52 UTC

Jade Melbourne · assists 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.3 min (27 expected)

Pick: Under 5.5 at 1.81 → Won +0.81 per 1 staked

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 0 · 11.5 below the line · played 25.4 min (20 expected)

Pick: Under 11.5 at 1.78 → Won +0.78 per 1 staked

Odyssey Sims · assists 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 4 min (24 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.74 → Won +0.74 per 1 staked · Result skewed by game events

Paige Bueckers · points 22.5 → 32 · 9.5 above the line · played 26.2 min (33 expected)

Pick: Under 22.5 at 1.81 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Ezi Magbegor · rebounds 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.3 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 5.5 at 2.10 → Won +1.10 per 1 staked

Jessica Shepard · rebounds 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.8 min (29 expected)

Pick: Under 10.5 at 1.79 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

5 other players with a posted line

Arike Ogunbowale · points 17.5 → 7 · 10.5 below the line · played 22.1 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Flau'jae Johnson · points 14.5 → 23 · 8.5 above the line · played 26.3 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.71

Dominique Malonga · points 19.5 → 12 · 7.5 below the line · played 20.2 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Awak Kuier · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.8 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Alanna Smith · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.8 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DAL vs SEA · last 20 games · SEA leads · DAL record 9–11 · average score 84.1–83.9 · DAL has won by 0.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Sep · DAL 103 at SEA 91DAL won

23 Aug · SEA 70 at DAL 92DAL won

22 Jun · DAL 112 at SEA 110DAL won

1 Jun · SEA 56 at DAL 79DAL won

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up86.0 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.0 assists · 8.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

DAL gives up 86.0 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 7, expected total 174 (Sat 19:30 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 8.5, expected total 176 (Sun 20:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 9

Ezi Magbegor · U 5.5 rebounds+110value_edge_pct +13.25 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Odyssey Sims · U 2.5 assists−136value_edge_pct −2.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Jade Melbourne · U 5.5 assists−123value_edge_pct −4.24 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Jessica Shepard · U 10.5 rebounds−127value_edge_pct −4.36 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 22

Jade Melbourne · O 1.5 rebounds−141value_edge_pct −4.47 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 23

Awa Fam · U 11.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.59 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 25

Ezi Magbegor · U 6.5 rebounds−130value_edge_pct −4.88 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 29

Paige Bueckers · U 22.5 points−123value_edge_pct −4.89 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 30

Paige Bueckers · U 23.5 points−110value_edge_pct −5.54 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 32

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 12

Jessica Shepard Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.67ubet −150 → close −150 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:391711 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.7% · actual 4 · 26.8 min · startedShepard stayed under 5.5 assists despite heavy involvement (27 min, 22% usage) because she operated primarily as a rebounder and scorer rather than a facilitator, tallying just 4 dimes while pulling down 11 boards. Her limited playmaking role kept her well clear of the over, finishing with one assist shy of the line.

Jade Melbourne Over 1.5 REBWIN +0.71ubet −141 → close −141 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:391710 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.9% · actual 4 · 27.3 min · started

Awa Fam Under 11.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −130 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:391708 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 0 · 25.4 min · startedFam was a complete non-factor offensively despite 25 minutes of playing time, going 0-for-5 from the field and 0-for-3 from three with a 9% usage rate, making the under an easy cover.

Odyssey Sims Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.74ubet −136 → close −136 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:391716 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.2% · actual 0 · 4.0 min · bench · excusedSims logged just 4 minutes with a foul drawn early, severely limiting her opportunity to accumulate assists and resulting in zero dimes on the night. The minimal playing time made the under an easy cover despite her 24% usage rate when on court.

Ezi Magbegor Under 5.5 REBWIN +1.10ubet +110 → close −133 · CLV +9.5¢ · bet_clv:391713 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.9% · actual 4 · 25.3 min · startedMagbegor came up one board short despite playing 25 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (0-4 FG, 10% usage) that limited her involvement in the flow of the game and kept her off the glass.

Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −127 → close −155 · CLV +4.8¢ · bet_clv:391712 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 11 · 26.8 min · startedShepard grabbed 11 rebounds in 27 minutes, exceeding the 10.5 line by one despite modest offensive efficiency (5-11 FG); her workload on the glass was enough to push the under just over the edge.

Ezi Magbegor Under 6.5 REBWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −130 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:378718 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · actual 4 · 25.3 min · started

Paige Bueckers Under 23.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −110 → close −110 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:378716 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.5% · unexplained · actual 32 · 26.2 min · started

Paige Bueckers Under 6.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −153 → close −162 · CLV +1.4¢ · bet_clv:352691 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 4 · 26.2 min · startedBueckers was a volume scorer (32 pts on 95% TS), commanding 35% usage, which left limited playmaking opportunities—she logged just 4 assists in 26 minutes despite elite efficiency. Her usage rate concentrated shot-taking over ball movement, keeping her well clear of the 6.5 assist line.

Paige Bueckers Under 22.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −123 → close −122 · CLV −0.2¢ · bet_clv:352690 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.5% · bad_price · actual 32 · 26.2 min · started

Awak Kuier Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.66ubet −152 → close −158 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:352689 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.1% · actual 7 · 25.8 min · startedKuier grabbed 7 boards in 26 minutes, easily clearing the 4.5 line despite modest offensive output, as her activity on the glass and presence in the paint translated to consistent rebounding opportunities.

Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.81ubet −123 → close −128 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:352688 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · actual 0 · 27.3 min · startedMelbourne recorded zero assists despite 27 minutes and 23% usage, staying in a pure scoring role with no playmaking opportunities—a sharp departure from any ball-distribution expectation that would've pushed toward the over.

Data fetches · 51

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 16 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 17 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 116 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 116 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 138 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 105 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 430 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 714 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 4294 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 4713 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 5409 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 5456 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 5795 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 5872 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 5873 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 5925 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 5467 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 5655 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 5656 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 5781 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.