WNBA · Finalupdated 10:54 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

WAS expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 166 points · odds to win: WAS 1.51, POR 2.66

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 23:03 UTC

WAS 105 – POR 100

Final · 2 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 2 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, POR = Portland Fire.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

B. Carleton · Over 4.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.96 · last price before start 1.88Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.96 · Our price was 2.3% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.88, 28 min ago

First offered at 1.63 by Pinnacle (Sun 15:09 UTC); latest 1.83 at Pinnacle (Sun 21:22 UTC). The 4.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

M. DiLeo · Over 12.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.85 · last price before start 1.85Won +0.85 per 1 staked

G. Amoore · Under 7.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.81 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

B. Carleton · Over 13.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.79Won +0.79 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying POR

SSonia Citron · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 14 actual

SShakira Austin · 30 min expected

points 17.5 → 31 actual

SKiki Iriafen · 29 min expected

points 15.5 → 18 actual

SMichaela Onyenwere · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

SGeorgia Amoore · 23 min expected

points 7.5 → 13 actual

Cotie McMahon · 22 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 19 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Betts (19 expected minutes) · Laney-Hamilton (15 min) · +3 more

Portland Fireplaying WAS

SBridget Carleton · 31 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual

SCarla Leite · 28 min expected

points 16.5 → 27 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 27 min expected

points 12.5 → 21 actual

SEmily Engstler · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 23 actual

Frieda Buhner · 16 min expected

points 5.5 → 3 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Puoch (18 expected minutes) · Samuelson (17 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 10:54 UTC

Who is out

Out Oblak · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 22, 11 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Littlepage-Buggs · did not play last game

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Dugalic, Florez, Harrison, Oblak) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 142 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Oblak out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 4 picks won2 won, 2 lost · −0.35 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.8% higher than the last before the start · 6 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Tue 23:52 UTC

Georgia Amoore · points 7.5 → 13 · 5.5 above the line · played 23.7 min (23 expected)

Pick: Under 7.5 at 1.81 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Megan DiLeo · points 12.5 → 21 · 8.5 above the line · played 27.1 min (27 expected)

Pick: Over 12.5 at 1.85 → Won +0.85 per 1 staked

Bridget Carleton · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 36.1 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.96 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

8 other players with a posted line

Emily Engstler · points 8.5 → 23 · 14.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (24 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Cotie McMahon · points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 19 · 8.5 above the line · played 17.9 min (22 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 31 · 13.5 above the line · played 32.8 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Carla Leite · points 16.5 → 27 · 10.5 above the line · played 29.9 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Frieda Buhner · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 10.5 min (16 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.07

Kiki Iriafen · points 15.5 → 18 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.01

Sonia Citron · points 15.5 → 14 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.6 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.00

Michaela Onyenwere · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.7 min (25 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.02

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs WAS · last 3 games · WAS leads · POR record 1–2 · average score 99.3–95.0 · POR has won by 4.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Aug · WAS 105 at POR 100POR lost

16 Jul · POR 75 at WAS 56POR won

28 Jun · POR 123 at WAS 124POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up82.9 points · 30.1 rebounds · 19.7 assists · 8.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.0 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 82.9 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.1−4.2 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 3.5, expected total 165 (Sat 19:30 UTC) and later WAS expected to win by 4.5, expected total 166 (Sun 23:03 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 4

Bridget Carleton · O 4.5 rebounds−104value_edge_pct −0.05 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Georgia Amoore · U 7.5 points−123value_edge_pct −4.27 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Megan DiLeo · O 12.5 points−117value_edge_pct −4.75 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 26

Bridget Carleton · O 13.5 points−126value_edge_pct −4.81 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 28

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 6

Kiki Iriafen Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.17ubet −590 → close −590 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:380332 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 80.3% · actual 2 · 30.1 min · started

Megan DiLeo Over 12.5 PTSWIN +0.85ubet −117 → close −117 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:354309 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.4% · actual 21 · 27.1 min · startedDiLeo's perfect 4-for-4 free-throw shooting and efficient 7-for-8 overall from the field (87.5% FG) propelled her well past the 12.5-point line, cashing the over by 8.5 points despite a modest 16% usage rate. The 27 minutes of playing time and near-flawless execution from the field—particularly her 3-for-4 three-point shooting—made volume less of a factor than elite efficiency.

Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −104 → close −114 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:354311 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 36.1 min · startedCarleton fell one rebound short despite heavy volume (36 min, 18% usage), as her elite offensive efficiency (64% TS%, 8-14 FG) kept her ball-dominant in a way that limited rebounding opportunities relative to her playing time.

Emily Engstler Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.29ubet −345 → close −345 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:380331 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 73.0% · actual 2 · 29.5 min · startedEngstler was a scoring-first option tonight, logging 25% usage and 23 points on elite 88% true shooting, but recorded just 2 assists despite 30 minutes—she turned the ball over 4 times and didn't facilitate, relying instead on self-created buckets rather than playmaking.

Georgia Amoore Under 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −123 · bet_clv:360735 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · unexplained · actual 13 · 23.7 min · started

Bridget Carleton Over 13.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −126 → close −126 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:354310 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.1% · actual 18 · 36.1 min · startedCarleton's efficient 8-14 shooting (57% FG) from 36 minutes of play easily cleared the over, as she got aggressive looks and converted at a high rate despite a modest usage rate of 18%. The over hit comfortably on volume and accuracy rather than heavy ball-handling usage.

Data fetches · 51

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 15 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 94 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 97 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 105 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 115 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 127 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 343 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 454 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 531 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 532 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 532 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 576 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 306 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1112 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 869 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 870 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 871 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 873 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 938 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 939 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1168 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1238 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.