02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

E. Wheeler · Over 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.04 · last price before start 1.95Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.04 · Our price was 2.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.95, 474 min ago

First offered at 2.02 by Pinnacle (); latest 1.95 at Pinnacle (). The 8.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →
M. Akoa Makani · Under 5.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.92 · last price before start 1.92Won +0.92 per 1 staked
A. Gray · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.78Won +0.88 per 1 staked
D. Hamby · Over 12.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.85 · last price before start 1.85Won +0.85 per 1 staked
C. Brink · Over 1.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.80Won +0.80 per 1 staked
R. Burrell · Over 2.5 assistsWithdrawn: outPosted at 1.78 · last price before start 2.10Refunded +0.00 per 1 staked
C. Brink · Over 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.76 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.76 per 1 staked

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Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

03

The players

12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying LAS

SAngel Reese · 34 min expected
points 17.5 → 11 actual
SRhyne Howard · 34 min expected
points 19.5 → 18 actual
SAllisha Gray · 33 min expected
assists 2.5 → 6 actual
SJordin Canada · 30 min expected
points 11.5 → 9 actual
SNaz Hillmon · 30 min expected
points 8.5 → 12 actual
Isobel Borlase · 15 min expected
points 4.5 → 6 actual
Madina Okot · 15 min expected
points 6.5 → 2 actual

1 player has no line from any bookmaker: Paopao (9 expected minutes)

Los Angeles Sparksplaying ATL

SNneka Ogwumike · 30 min expected
points 14.5 → 27 actual
SDearica Hamby · 28 min expected
points 12.5 → 15 actual
SErica Wheeler · 28 min expected
points 8.5 → 2 actual
SAriel Atkins · 26 min expected
points 6.5 → 10 actual
SMonique Akoa Makani · 20 min expected
points 5.5 → 2 actual
Cameron Brink · 15 min expected
points 7.5 → 15 actual
Rae Burrell · Out · illness
points 15.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Morgan (14 expected minutes) · Gray (12 min) · +4 more

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Cannon · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed ) · 13, 13 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Burrell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 34, 29 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Makani · new starter

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed ) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Sherrod · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 3, 8 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Okot, Borlase, Park, Martin) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Reese: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 27.4 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 more than usual

Hillmon: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 24.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 10.1 more than usual

Brink: expected to play 15 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 8.3 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

ATL also played the day before this game · LAS had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 212 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Cannon out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Burrell out () · did not play

Makani new starter · started, 19.1 min

Flagged before the game: Nye out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sherrod out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 6 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
Final · 5 of 7 picks won5 won, 1 lost · +3.21 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.5% lower than the last before the start · 15 lines checked, 8 scored but not picked · checked
Allisha Gray · assists 2.5 → 6 · 3.5 above the line · played 32.5 min (33 expected)
Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.88 → Won +0.88 per 1 staked
Cameron Brink · points 7.5 → 15 · 7.5 above the line · played 24.8 min (15 expected)
Pick: Over 7.5 at 1.76 → Won +0.76 per 1 staked
Erica Wheeler · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 25.1 min (28 expected)
Pick: Over 8.5 at 2.04 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall
Monique Akoa Makani · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 19.1 min (20 expected)
Pick: Under 5.5 at 1.92 → Won +0.92 per 1 staked
Dearica Hamby · points 12.5 → 15 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.1 min (28 expected)
Pick: Over 12.5 at 1.85 → Won +0.85 per 1 staked
9 other players with a posted line
Nneka Ogwumike · points 14.5 → 27 · 12.5 above the line · played 29.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78
Madina Okot · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 8.1 min (15 expected) · no final price
Ariel Atkins · points 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 32.9 min (26 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88
Naz Hillmon · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 33.6 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94
Angel Reese · points 17.5 → 11 · 6.5 below the line · played 38.3 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96
Isobel Borlase · points 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.3 min (15 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92
Jordin Canada · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 35 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88
Rhyne Howard · points 19.5 → 18 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.2 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79
Rae Burrell · points 15.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

LAS vs ATL · last 16 games · ATL leads · LAS record 3–13 · average score 80.4–89.8 · LAS has lost by 9.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Aug · ATL 78 at LAS 71LAS lost
20 Aug · ATL 124 at LAS 88LAS lost
13 Jul · LAS 92 at ATL 101LAS lost
5 Sep · LAS 85 at ATL 104LAS lost
3 Sep · LAS 75 at ATL 86LAS lost
What each defense gives up per game
ATL gives up84.1 points · 31.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.6% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 15.6 opponent turnovers
LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 84.1 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.2−3.1 vs average
LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.2+4.1 vs average
How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 9, expected total 183 () and later ATL expected to win by 11, expected total 181.5 ().

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 8
Erica Wheeler · O 8.5 points+104value_edge_pct −1.56 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2
Monique Akoa Makani · U 5.5 points−109value_edge_pct −1.69 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3
Allisha Gray · O 2.5 assists−114value_edge_pct −2.04 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4
Erica Wheeler · O 7.5 points−117value_edge_pct −2.14 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5
Rae Burrell · O 2.5 assists−128value_edge_pct −2.94 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6
Cameron Brink · O 1.5 assists−125value_edge_pct −4.77 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14
Cameron Brink · O 7.5 points−131value_edge_pct −4.83 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15
Dearica Hamby · O 12.5 points−117value_edge_pct −4.94 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 15
Erica Wheeler Over 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −161 → close −155 · CLV −0.9¢ · bet_clv:402212 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · bad_price · actual 3 · 25.1 min · startedWheeler came up one assist short despite playing 25 minutes, finishing with just 3 dimes as her offensive inefficiency (1-6 FG, 15% usage) limited her ability to generate ball movement and create scoring opportunities off the bench.
Monique Akoa Makani Under 5.5 PTSWIN +0.92ubet −109 → close −109 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:405565 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.3% · actual 2 · 19.1 min · benchMakani's scoreless night from the field (0-6 FG, 0-3 3PT) despite 19 minutes and decent usage (22%) made the under an easy hit, as her 14% true shooting was well below the scoring efficiency needed to reach 5.5 points.
Rae Burrell Over 1.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet −167 → close −155 · CLV −1.8¢ · bet_clv:402214 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.0% · actual 0Burrell did not play (DNP), so the bet voided per sportsbook rules rather than losing on the court.
Nneka Ogwumike Over 6.5 REBWIN +0.68ubet −147 → close −149 · CLV +0.3¢ · bet_clv:402207 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.7% · actual 16 · 29.1 min · startedOgwumike dominated the glass with 16 rebounds in 29 minutes, nearly tripling the 6.5 line, fueled by her team-high 40% usage rate and relentless interior presence on both ends. Her elite efficiency (11-19 FG, 64% TS%) kept her on the floor and in position for offensive boards throughout the game.
Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +104 → close −105 · CLV +2.2¢ · bet_clv:402211 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 25.1 min · startedWheeler's ice-cold 1-6 shooting (17% TS) left her well short despite 25 minutes of run, as she managed just 2 points on 15% usage in a game where she couldn't find her rhythm from the field.
Dearica Hamby Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.54ubet −186 → close −182 · CLV −0.5¢ · bet_clv:402209 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.6% · actual 3 · 26.1 min · startedHamby exceeded the 1.5 assist line with 3 dimes despite modest 26 minutes and 23% usage, as her efficient ball-handling and high-volume touches in the paint created natural kick-out opportunities for open shooters.
Dearica Hamby Over 12.5 PTSWIN +0.85ubet −117 → close −117 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:402208 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.3% · actual 15 · 26.1 min · startedHamby's efficient 6-11 shooting (55% FG) paired with 26 minutes of run time easily cleared the 12.5-point bar, finishing at 15 points despite a quiet 23% usage rate. Her interior scoring and free-throw reliability (3-4 FT) provided steady offensive output that didn't require high volume.
Rae Burrell Over 2.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −128 → close +110 · CLV −8.5¢ · bet_clv:402213 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.5% · actual 0Burrell did not play (DNP), resulting in a void rather than a loss on the OVER 2.5 assists bet.
Erica Wheeler Over 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −117 → close −117 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:404080 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · unexplained · actual 2 · 25.1 min · startedWheeler's abysmal 1-6 shooting (17% TS%) left her with just 2 points despite playing 25 minutes, as she couldn't convert opportunities in an efficient offensive system. The combination of poor shot selection and execution—missing all six attempts—made the 7.5-point line unreachable.
Jordin Canada Under 8.5 ASTWIN +0.69ubet −145 → close −145 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:402210 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.3% · actual 4 · 35.0 min · startedCanada's playmaking was severely limited by her own offensive struggles—shooting just 4-for-9 with low usage (14%) forced her into a secondary role rather than a floor-running distribution engine, resulting in only 4 assists despite 35 minutes. The under cashed as she failed to generate enough scoring threat to create easy opportunities for teammates.
Isobel Borlase Under 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −159 · bet_clv:402219 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.6% · unexplained · actual 6 · 16.3 min · benchBorlase's 2-of-8 shooting (25% FG) left little margin for error on the 5.5-point line, and she converted both free throws to reach 6 points despite the poor offensive efficiency. The 16 minutes of playing time gave her enough volume to narrowly exceed the under threshold despite a putrid 34% true shooting night.
Cameron Brink Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.70ubet −143 → close −143 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:402217 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · actual 8 · 24.8 min · startedBrink dominated the glass with 8 rebounds in 25 minutes, nearly doubling the 4.5 line despite playing limited time, fueled by her elite shot-blocking (5 blocks) and activity on both ends. Her 25% usage rate and foul trouble (5 PF) limited her offensive touches, but she made up the difference on the boards where she was the most active player available.
Allisha Gray Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.88ubet −114 → close −128 · CLV +2.9¢ · bet_clv:402218 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.2% · actual 6 · 32.5 min · startedGray's 6 assists easily cleared the 2.5 line as she ran the offense efficiently in 32 minutes, with strong ball-movement reflected in her 76% true shooting and team-leading +20 rating.
Cameron Brink Over 7.5 PTSWIN +0.76ubet −131 → close −131 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:402216 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 15 · 24.8 min · started
Cameron Brink Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.80ubet −125 → close −125 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:402215 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · actual 2 · 24.8 min · started
Data fetches · 55
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 39 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 41 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 42 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 49 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 50 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 50 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 52 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 96 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 167 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 168 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 177 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 181 ms
sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 194 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 133 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 456 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 571 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 43 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 77 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 79 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 554 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 554 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 195 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 588 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 215 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 236 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 664 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 277 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 281 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 284 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 285 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 287 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 293 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 295 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 297 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 298 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 696 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 309 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 312 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 710 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 722 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 918 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 620 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 620 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 620 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 903 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 904 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 906 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 906 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.