Picks and prices
Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checkedA line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.
E. Wheeler · Over 8.5 pointsLost▸Posted at 2.04 · last price before start 1.95Lost −1.00 per 1 staked
Posted at 2.04 · Our price was 2.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).
Pinnacle 1.95, 474 min ago
First offered at 2.02 by Pinnacle (); latest 1.95 at Pinnacle (). The 8.5 line itself has not moved.
Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked
This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.
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In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.
In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.
The players
12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checkedRate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.
Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.
Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.
Atlanta Dreamplaying LAS
1 player has no line from any bookmaker: Paopao (9 expected minutes)
Los Angeles Sparksplaying ATL
6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Morgan (14 expected minutes) · Gray (12 min) · +4 more
What could go wrong
updatedCannon · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed ) · 13, 13 and 12 min in the last 3 games
Burrell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 34, 29 and 25 min in the last 3 games
Makani · new starter
Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed ) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games
Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games
Sherrod · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 3, 8 and 18 min in the last 3 games
Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game
Kone · did not play last game
Out Jones · left leg · ATL
Starting lineup confirmed () · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start
4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Okot, Borlase, Park, Martin) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.
Reese: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 27.4 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 more than usual
Hillmon: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 24.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual
Wheeler: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 10.1 more than usual
Brink: expected to play 15 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 8.3 fewer than usual
Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.
ATL also played the day before this game · LAS had 7 days off before this game.
The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 212 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.
One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.
Flagged before the game: Cannon out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Burrell out () · did not play
Makani new starter · started, 19.1 min
Flagged before the game: Nye out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play
Flagged before the game: Nivar out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Sherrod out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play
Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play
3 expected players did not play
When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.
What happened
In 6 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.▸9 other players with a posted line
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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.
▸More context
LAS vs ATL · last 16 games · ATL leads · LAS record 3–13 · average score 80.4–89.8 · LAS has lost by 9.4 on average
Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.
Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 9, expected total 183 () and later ATL expected to win by 11, expected total 181.5 ().
▸Data log (technical)
▸Classic view →
The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.