WNBA · Aug 24 gameFull sheet

Golden State Valkyries at Minnesota Lynx

FinalGSV 80 – MIN 66Page updated 12:51 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 8 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

8Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Out King · coach's decision · MIN

6 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Zandalasini, Hayes, Delaere, Bibby, Joklova have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 12 of 20 estimates.

Williams: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 29.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.6 fewer than usual

Howard: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 17.5 in the last 5 games, about 14.5 more than usual

Miles: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Caldwell: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 15.7 in the last 5 games, about 10.3 more than usual

Collier: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 27.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

Coffey: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 18.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Kayla McBrideUnder 2.5 rebounds

LostActual 4

Posted odds1.79Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Kayla’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.79. Last price before tip: 1.77.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 1.97 at DraftKings, Sun 05:47 UTC. Latest included: 1.81 at DraftKings, Mon 23:59 UTC. The 2.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Olivia MilesOver 18.5 points

LostActual 8

Posted odds1.79

Napheesa CollierUnder 20.5 points

WonActual 9

Posted odds1.79

Maya CaldwellUnder 4.5 points

LostActual 9

Posted odds1.77

Napheesa CollierUnder 8.5 rebounds

WonActual 7

Posted odds1.72

Tiffany HayesOver 2.5 rebounds

WonActual 3

Posted odds2.00

Tiffany HayesOver 8.5 points

WonActual 14

Posted odds1.79

Janelle SalaunOver 10.5 points

WonActual 12

Posted odds1.77

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Out King · coach's decision · MIN

Players and minutes20 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Golden State Valkyries

SVeronica Burton · 28 min expected

points 13.5 → 14 actual

SGabby Williams · 24 min expected

points 13.5 → 15 actual

SKayla Thornton · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

SCecilia Zandalasini · 23 min expected

points 8.5 → 18 actual

Tiffany Hayes · 23 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual

Janelle Salaun · 21 min expected

points 10.5 → 12 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Kiah Stokes20 min · source estimate

Kaila Charles18 min · source estimate

Kaitlyn Chen14 min · source estimate

Laeticia Amihere5 min · source estimate

Minnesota Lynx

SKayla McBride · 34 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 4 actual

SOlivia Miles · 34 min expected

points 18.5 → 8 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected

rebounds 8.5 → 7 actual

SNatasha Howard · 32 min expected

points 12.5 → 13 actual

SMaya Caldwell · 26 min expected

points 4.5 → 9 actual

Nia Coffey · 25 min expected

points 4.5 → 5 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Dorka Juhasz11 min · source estimate

Antonia Delaere1 min · source estimate

Chloe Bibby1 min · source estimate

Eliska Joklova1 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIN expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 162 points · odds to win: GSV 2.80, MIN 1.47

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Tue 00:07 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 12:51 UTC

Who is out

C. Williams (MIN) · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Sun 18:15 UTC) · 38, 35 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Caldwell · new starter · 3 of 342 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Out King · coach's decision · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Williams: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 29.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.6 fewer than usual

Howard: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 17.5 in the last 5 games, about 14.5 more than usual

Miles: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Caldwell: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 15.7 in the last 5 games, about 10.3 more than usual

Collier: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 27.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

Coffey: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 18.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 174 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: C. Williams (MIN) out (Sun 18:15 UTC) · did not play

Caldwell new starter · started, 25.4 min

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 8 picks won5 won, 3 lost · +1.07 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.9% higher than the last before the start · 15 lines checked, 7 scored but not picked · checked Thu 01:52 UTC

Maya Caldwell · points 4.5 → 9 · 4.5 above the line · played 25.4 min (26 expected)

Pick: Under 4.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Kayla McBride · rebounds 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.4 min (34 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.79 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → 8 · 10.5 below the line · played 27.8 min (34 expected)

Pick: Over 18.5 at 1.79 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Tiffany Hayes · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.3 min (23 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

Napheesa Collier · rebounds 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.7 min (33 expected)

Pick: Under 8.5 at 1.72 → Won +0.72 per 1 staked

Janelle Salaun · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 28 min (21 expected)

Pick: Over 10.5 at 1.77 → Won +0.77 per 1 staked

6 other players with a posted line

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 8.5 → 18 · 9.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Kayla Thornton · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 7.9 min (24 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Gabby Williams · points 13.5 → 15 · 1.5 above the line · played 30 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Nia Coffey · points 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.3 min (25 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Natasha Howard · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.7 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.70

Veronica Burton · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.13, Under 1.67

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIN vs GSV · last 10 games · MIN leads · MIN record 9–1 · average score 80.5–72.2 · MIN has won by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Aug · GSV 80 at MIN 66MIN lost

19 Aug · MIN 77 at GSV 66MIN won

19 Jun · MIN 81 at GSV 75MIN won

4 Jun · GSV 84 at MIN 87MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.9 points · 32.5 rebounds · 18.3 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.7% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.9 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.2 vs average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 5, expected total 159.5 (Mon 00:27 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 5, expected total 162 (Tue 00:07 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 10

Maya Caldwell · U 4.5 points−130value_edge_pct −1.04 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Kayla McBride · U 2.5 rebounds−126value_edge_pct −3.57 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Tiffany Hayes · O 2.5 rebounds+100value_edge_pct −3.82 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Olivia Miles · O 18.5 points−126value_edge_pct −3.87 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Olivia Miles · O 19.5 points−105value_edge_pct −4.15 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Napheesa Collier · U 8.5 rebounds−138value_edge_pct −4.16 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Janelle Salaun · O 10.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Olivia Miles · O 17.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.75 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Tiffany Hayes · O 8.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.99 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

Napheesa Collier · U 20.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.99 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 15

Nia Coffey Under 5.5 PTSWIN +0.63ubet −159 → close +102 · CLV −11.9¢ · bet_clv:403441 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.6% · actual 5 · 15.3 min · bench

Kayla McBride Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −196 → close −169 · CLV −3.4¢ · bet_clv:401523 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.8% · bad_price · actual 4 · 33.4 min · startedMcBride exceeded the assist prop despite shooting just 18% from the field, relying on her playmaking (4 ast in 33 min) rather than scoring to impact the game—a rare occurrence that undermined the under bet.

Cecilia Zandalasini Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −196 · bet_clv:403440 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.2% · unexplained · actual 1 · 29.5 min · startedZandalasini's playmaking dried up despite heavy usage (30%) and 30 minutes; she generated just 1 assist while shouldering a scoring load (18 pts on 7-17 FG), suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game. Four personal fouls also may have limited her ability to push tempo and create in transition.

Maya Caldwell Under 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −164 → close −138 · CLV −4.1¢ · bet_clv:401526 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · bad_price · actual 9 · 25.4 min · startedCaldwell's 3-for-5 three-point shooting (60%) and near-perfect 90% true shooting overcame modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient scoring made the under vulnerable to even modest volume. She needed just 9 points to bust a 5.5 line, and elite efficiency made that threshold easier to clear than expected.

Janelle Salaun Over 10.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −134 · CLV +0.7¢ · bet_clv:401535 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 12 · 28.0 min · startedSalaun cleared the line with solid floor time (28 min) and moderate usage (23%), converting 5-of-11 from the field to reach 12 points despite a quiet free-throw line (0-0 FT). Her 55% true shooting kept her efficient enough to comfortably exceed the 10.5-point threshold.

Napheesa Collier Under 8.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −138 → close −143 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:401534 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · actual 7 · 31.7 min · startedCollier stayed under the line despite playing 32 minutes, hampered by a modest 18% usage rate that limited her rebounding opportunities in a game where Minnesota's ball movement reduced second-chance situations.

Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −126 → close −130 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:401524 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 33.4 min · startedMcBride grabbed 4 boards despite a poor 2-11 shooting night, staying on the floor for all 33 minutes and maintaining active rebounding work even as her offensive touches dried up. The volume was there to hit the over, and she delivered on the glass despite shooting just 18% from the field.

Napheesa Collier Under 20.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401533 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 9 · 31.7 min · startedCollier's offensive efficiency collapsed on just 4-10 shooting (40% FG) and she drew no free throw attempts despite 32 minutes, combining for a season-low 9 points well below the 20.5 line. Her 18% usage rate and 45% true shooting marked a significant drop-off from her typical volume and efficiency.

Tiffany Hayes Over 2.5 REBWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close −128 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:401527 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 3 · 18.3 min · benchHayes hit the over with efficient floor time, grabbing 3 rebounds in just 18 minutes while maintaining elite shooting (5-8 FG, 79% TS) and staying out of foul trouble with only 3 PF. Her strong +13 rating and high usage rate (29%) kept her actively involved in a game the team dominated, supporting the rebound total.

Veronica Burton Under 6.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −150 → close −145 · CLV −0.8¢ · bet_clv:401529 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.0% · bad_price · actual 9 · 30.1 min · startedBurton's playmaking dominated the game despite modest usage; she notched 9 assists in 30 minutes—well above the 6.5 line—by running the offense efficiently with just 1 turnover and forcing 5 steals that generated transition opportunities.

Olivia Miles Over 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −105 → close −112 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:401532 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 27.8 min · startedMiles shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) and 1-5 from three on 29% usage, combining for historically poor efficiency (31% TS%) that made it impossible to reach 19.5 despite playing 28 minutes. The offensive struggles were across the board—she couldn't generate scoring opportunities and converted few of the looks she did get.

Olivia Miles Over 18.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −126 → close −132 · CLV +1.1¢ · bet_clv:401531 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 27.8 min · startedMiles shot just 25% from the field (3-12) with brutal 31% true shooting, falling well short of the 18.5-point line despite playing 28 minutes and maintaining solid usage at 29%. Cold shooting across the board—1-5 from three and inefficient overall—was the primary culprit in the 10.5-point shortfall.

Olivia Miles Over 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −128 → close −128 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401530 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · unexplained · actual 8 · 27.8 min · started

Maya Caldwell Under 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 → close −118 · CLV −2.4¢ · bet_clv:401525 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.9% · bad_price · actual 9 · 25.4 min · startedCaldwell's rare 3-5 three-point shooting night—capped by a 90% true shooting percentage—doubled her expected output despite modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient volume from deep proved enough to clear 4.5. The under missed because elite efficiency on limited attempts can still generate ceiling-level scoring in short bursts.

Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401528 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 14 · 18.3 min · benchHayes knocked down 5-of-8 from the field (62.5%) with efficient 3-point shooting (2-3) to easily clear 8.5 points in just 18 minutes, posting a 79% true shooting percentage despite modest usage. Her hot hand and high efficiency from deep made the over a straightforward cover.

Data fetches · 55

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 8 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 89 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 127 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 129 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 147 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 158 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 161 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 109 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 492 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 37 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 435 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 99 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 115 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 218 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 626 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 628 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 629 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 639 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 645 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 647 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 650 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 818 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 621 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 688 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 689 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 845 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 878 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.