WNBA · Aug 25 gameAll props Full sheet

Chicago Sky at Connecticut Sun

FinalCHI 81 – CON 87Page updated 14:27 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 5 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

5Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 6 availability alerts

Out Nelson-Ododa · earlier listed as available

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available

Out Cloud · earlier listed as may not play

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Marshall · coach's decision · CON

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Coulibaly, Jaquez, Jackson, Kneepkens have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 6 of 18 estimates.

Saniya RiversUnder 10.5 points

WonActual 7

Posted odds1.94Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Saniya’s points

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.94. Last price before tip: 1.76.

Recorded result: +0.94 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 1.97 at DraftKings, Tue 01:32 UTC. Latest included: 1.80 at DraftKings, Tue 22:59 UTC. The 10.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Saniya RiversUnder 4.5 assists

LostActual 5

Posted odds1.93

Sydney TaylorOver 12.5 points

LostActual 4

Posted odds1.82

Charlisse Leger-WalkerUnder 8.5 points

WonActual 4

Posted odds1.78

Natasha CloudOver 11.5 points

Withdrawn: outLostActual 3

Posted odds1.77

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Nelson-Ododa · earlier listed as available · Sat 20:45 UTC · 16, 10 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available · Wed 00:15 UTC · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Cloud · earlier listed as may not play · Sat 22:15 UTC · 21, 16 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Marshall · coach's decision · CON

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Players and minutes22 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Chicago Sky

SKamilla Cardoso · 29 min expected

points 15.5 → 24 actual

SCourtney Vandersloot · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

SAzura Stevens · 24 min expected

points 10.5 → 18 actual

SSydney Taylor · 18 min expected

points 12.5 → 4 actual

SNatasha Cloud · 32 min expected · Out · right knee · listed out, then played

points 11.5 → 3 actual

DiJonai Carrington · 18 min expected · Out · left foot · listed out, then played

points 8.5 → 0 actual

5 more players · no line in this feed

Jacy Sheldon15 min · source estimate

Rachel Banham14 min · source estimate

Elizabeth Williams12 min · source estimate

Aicha Coulibaly5 min · source estimate

Gabriela Jaquez5 min · source estimate

Connecticut Sun

SKennedy Burke · 28 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 25 actual

SSaniya Rivers · 27 min expected

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

9 more players · no line in this feed

Charlisse Leger-Walker27 min · source estimate

Diamond Miller25 min · source estimate

Aaliyah Edwards23 min · source estimate

Raegan Beers20 min · source estimate

Nell Angloma18 min · source estimate

Ashlon Jackson16 min · source estimate

Gianna Kneepkens16 min · source estimate

Brittney GrinerOut · Left Knee

Olivia Nelson-OdodaOut · Right Knee

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

CHI expected to win by about 7 · both teams together expected to score about 172 points · odds to win: CHI 1.33, CON 3.48

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Tue 23:02 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 14:27 UTC

Who is out

Out Nelson-Ododa · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 16, 10 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Rivers · new starter

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Maly · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 19, 22 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Out Cloud · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sat 22:15 UTC) · 21, 16 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Marshall · coach's decision · CON

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

CON has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Coulibaly, Jaquez, Jackson, Kneepkens have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 6 of 18 estimates.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 8 days off before this game · CON had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 77 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nelson-Ododa out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Rivers new starter · started, 29.4 min

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Maly out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cloud out (Sat 22:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 5 picks won2 won, 3 lost · −1.28 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.1% higher than the last before the start · 9 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Thu 23:52 UTC

Natasha Cloud · points 11.5 → 3 · 8.5 below the line · played 15.9 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 11.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Sydney Taylor · points 12.5 → 4 · 8.5 below the line · played 20.1 min (18 expected)

Pick: Over 12.5 at 1.82 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

6 other players with a posted line

DiJonai Carrington · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 4.1 min (18 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Saniya Rivers · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.4 min (27 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.57, Under —

Azura Stevens · points 10.5 → 18 · 7.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Kennedy Burke · points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 25 · 9.5 above the line · played 32.9 min (28 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Kamilla Cardoso · points 15.5 → 24 · 8.5 above the line · played 28.7 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Courtney Vandersloot · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.1 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

CON vs CHI · last 25 games · CON leads · CON record 14–11 · average score 82.7–79.0 · CON has won by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Aug · CHI 81 at CON 87CON won

30 Jul · CON 88 at CHI 94CON lost

22 Jun · CHI 63 at CON 92CON won

5 Jun · CON 80 at CHI 85CON lost

3 Sep · CON 64 at CHI 88CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 5, expected total 168.5 (Mon 20:23 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 7, expected total 172 (Tue 23:02 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Saniya Rivers · U 10.5 points−106value_edge_pct −1.56 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Sydney Taylor · O 12.5 points−122value_edge_pct −3.06 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Natasha Cloud · O 11.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Charlisse Leger-Walker · U 8.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.96 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

Saniya Rivers · U 4.5 assists−108value_edge_pct −5.30 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 9

Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 8.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −132 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:419487 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.4% · actual 4 · 29.5 min · startedLeger-Walker's poor shooting efficiency—just 1-for-9 from the field (11% FG) with no 3-pointers made—kept her well short of 8.5 points despite playing a full 30 minutes. Her 20% true shooting and 15% usage rate reflect a night where she couldn't get into any offensive rhythm.

Saniya Rivers Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.42ubet −240 → close −240 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:406501 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.8% · actual 5 · 29.4 min · started

Courtney Vandersloot Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −154 → close −204 · CLV +6.5¢ · bet_clv:406496 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.1% · actual 9 · 25.1 min · startedVandersloot nearly doubled the line with 9 assists in 25 minutes, operating as the primary facilitator in what was likely a game flow favoring ball movement over her own scoring. Her elite assist rate and high-volume playmaking—despite modest 13% usage—made the over a comfortable winner.

Sydney Taylor Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −323 · bet_clv:419480 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.5% · unexplained · actual 4 · 20.1 min · started

Saniya Rivers Under 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −108 → close −158 · CLV +9.3¢ · bet_clv:406500 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 5 · 29.4 min · startedRivers pushed over the line with exactly 5 assists despite shooting just 3-10 and posting poor efficiency (35% TS), relying on playmaking volume rather than scoring to stay productive in 29 minutes.

Sydney Taylor Over 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −122 → close −127 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:406497 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 20.1 min · startedTaylor's shooting was catastrophic, going 2-11 from the field (18% TS%) with an 0-6 three-point night in 20 minutes, making it mathematically impossible to reach 12.5 points. Despite moderate usage (25%), her inability to convert any perimeter shots and reliance on made field goals left her 8.5 points short of the over.

Saniya Rivers Under 10.5 PTSWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −132 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:406499 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · actual 7 · 29.4 min · startedRivers' poor shooting night—just 3-for-10 from the field (30%) with a 35% true shooting percentage—kept her well below the 10.5-point line despite playing 29 minutes with moderate usage at 17%. The offensive inefficiency, not reduced playing time, was the primary driver of the under hitting.

Kennedy Burke Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.45ubet −222 · bet_clv:406498 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.7% · actual 1 · 32.9 min · started

Natasha Cloud Over 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:419483 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · unexplained · actual 3 · 15.9 min · benchCloud played just 16 minutes with minimal offensive involvement (11% usage, 1-3 FG), falling well short of the 11.5-point line. Limited run and low shot volume kept her far below projection despite solid efficiency when she did touch the ball.

Data fetches · 44

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 68 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 72 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 78 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 99 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 101 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 299 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 324 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 371 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 374 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 292 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 602 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 610 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 681 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 692 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 743 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 570 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 598 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 813 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1130 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 901 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 906 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 916 ms

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