WNBA · Finalupdated 23:15 UTC

Portland Fire vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

DAL expected to win by about 9 · both teams together expected to score about 177.5 points · odds to win: POR 4.11, DAL 1.26

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 00:04 UTC

POR 78 – DAL 96

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying DAL

SBridget Carleton · 33 min expected

points 15.5 → 14 actual

SCarla Leite · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 10 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 28 min expected

points 14.5 → 13 actual

SEmily Engstler · 27 min expected

points 9.5 → 12 actual

SNyadiew Puoch · 20 min expected

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Frieda Buhner · 17 min expected

points 5.5 → 10 actual

Karlie Samuelson · 17 min expected

points 5.5 → 14 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Winterburn (14 expected minutes) · Harrison (7 min) · +2 more

Dallas Wingsplaying POR

SPaige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 20.5 → 22 actual

SArike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 17.5 → 17 actual

SJessica Shepard · 30 min expected

points 15.5 → 21 actual

SAlanna Smith · 27 min expected

points 9.5 → 10 actual

SAwak Kuier · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Maddy Siegrist · 16 min expected

points 6.5 → 9 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Clark (21 expected minutes) · Sutton (8 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 23:15 UTC

Who is out

Laksa · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 23:30 UTC) · 15, 6 and 9 min in the last 3 games

S. Williams (POR) · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Fri 22:45 UTC) · 8, 15 and 16 min in the last 3 games

Out James · left leg · DAL

Out C. Williams (DAL) · coach'sdecision

Out Jones · coach'sdecision · DAL

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Harrison, Oblak) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Puoch: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 26.7 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 11 days off before this game · DAL also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 142 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Laksa out (Wed 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: S. Williams (POR) out (Fri 22:45 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Fri 00:52 UTC

13 other players with a posted line

Karlie Samuelson · points 5.5 → 14 · 8.5 above the line · played 18.8 min (17 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.17, Under 1.66

Nyadiew Puoch · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 18 min (20 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.72

Frieda Buhner · points 5.5 → 10 · 4.5 above the line · played 16.9 min (17 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Awak Kuier · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 33.6 min (26 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.77

Carla Leite · points 16.5 → 10 · 6.5 below the line · played 26.9 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Maddy Siegrist · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 20.2 min (16 expected) · no final price

Jessica Shepard · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 34.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Emily Engstler · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.87

Megan DiLeo · points 14.5 → 13 · 1.5 below the line · played 28 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Bridget Carleton · points 15.5 → 14 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.1 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.77

Paige Bueckers · points 20.5 → 22 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.8 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.63, Under 2.20

Alanna Smith · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.3 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Arike Ogunbowale · points 17.5 → 17 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.1 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs POR · last 3 games · DAL leads · DAL record 2–1 · average score 93.3–86.3 · DAL has won by 7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Aug · POR 78 at DAL 96DAL won

22 Jul · DAL 101 at POR 97DAL won

13 Jun · DAL 83 at POR 84DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.9 vs average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 7.5, expected total 177 (Mon 18:50 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 9, expected total 177.5 (Wed 00:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 20 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 20 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 114 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 135 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 387 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 464 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 406 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 413 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 427 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 430 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 915 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 601 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 636 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 655 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 668 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 724 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 781 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 782 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 952 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 975 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 974 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.