WNBA · Finalupdated 12:50 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

WAS expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 168.5 points · odds to win: WAS 1.73, PHO 2.17

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 02:01 UTC

WAS 94 – PHO 84

Final · 1 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 1 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Copper · Over 1.5 3-pointersLostPosted at 2.50 · last price before start 1.50Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.50 · Our price was 26.7% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.50 by FanDuel (Mon 03:32 UTC); latest 2.20 at BetRivers (Wed 01:57 UTC). The line moved from 1.5 to 2.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

M. Onyenwere · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.14 · last price before start 1.88Won +1.14 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying PHO

SSonia Citron · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 19 actual

SShakira Austin · 31 min expected

points 17.5 → 16 actual

SKiki Iriafen · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 18 actual

SMichaela Onyenwere · 25 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual

SGeorgia Amoore · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Cotie McMahon · 18 min expected

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Lauren Betts · 18 min expected

points 4.5 → 10 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Laney-Hamilton (15 expected minutes) · Florez (5 min) · +2 more

Phoenix Mercuryplaying WAS

SKahleah Copper · 35 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

SAlyssa Thomas · 34 min expected

points 13.5 → 16 actual

SNoemie Brochant · 27 min expected

points 7.5 → 7 actual

SNatasha Mack · 22 min expected

rebounds 7.5 → 8 actual

Kelsey Plum · 22 min expected

points 13.5 → 10 actual

2 players have no line from any bookmaker: Whitcomb (27 expected minutes) · Ayayi (15 min)

What could go wrong

updated 12:50 UTC

Who is out

Poffenbarger · did not play last game

Mack · new starter

Out Suarez · - · PHO

Whitcomb · likely to play · left knee · PHO

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Dugalic, Prosper, Mack, Plum) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Thomas: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 16 of the 144 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Poffenbarger out · did not play

Mack new starter · started, 24.8 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · +0.14 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 16.6% higher than the last before the start · checked Fri 02:52 UTC

Kahleah Copper · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.5 min (35 expected)

Pick: Over 1.5 at 2.50 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Michaela Onyenwere · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 19.3 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.14 → Won +1.14 per 1 staked

10 other players with a posted line

Lauren Betts · points 4.5 → 10 · 5.5 above the line · played 24.1 min (18 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.57, Under 2.32

Cotie McMahon · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 11.8 min (18 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Kelsey Plum · points 13.5 → 10 · 3.5 below the line · played 16.6 min (22 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 28.7 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Alyssa Thomas · points 13.5 → 16 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.5 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 19 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.01

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 16 · 1.5 below the line · played 24.1 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.00

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.7 min (24 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Noemie Brochant · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.6 min (27 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.74

Natasha Mack · rebounds 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.8 min (22 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.22, Under 1.61

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs WAS · last 16 games · PHO leads · PHO record 8–8 · average score 79.3–82.6 · PHO has lost by 3.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Aug · WAS 80 at PHO 73PHO lost

25 Aug · WAS 94 at PHO 84PHO lost

9 Aug · PHO 75 at WAS 95PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.2−4.0 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 3.5, expected total 164.5 (Mon 18:50 UTC) and later WAS expected to win by 2, expected total 168.5 (Wed 02:01 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Kahleah Copper · O 1.5 threes+150value_edge_pct +53.68 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Michaela Onyenwere · O 2.5 rebounds+114value_edge_pct +7.28 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet +150 → close −200 · CLV +26.7¢ · bet_clv:407500 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 30.5 min · started

Michaela Onyenwere Over 2.5 REBWIN +1.14ubet +114 → close −114 · CLV +6.5¢ · bet_clv:417897 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.1% · actual 3 · 19.3 min · bench

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 61 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 226 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 240 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 255 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 262 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 271 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 282 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 133 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 649 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 696 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 624 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 238 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 740 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 379 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 395 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 402 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1115 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 673 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 716 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 937 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 958 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 970 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1002 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1016 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1076 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1077 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1110 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.