WNBA · Finalupdated 11:43 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

SEA expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 174 points · odds to win: TOR 3.23, SEA 1.37

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 02:07 UTC

TOR 78 – SEA 90

Final · 1 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 1 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

L. Juskaite · Under 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.02 · last price before start 2.02Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.02 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.77 by FanDuel (Tue 04:06 UTC); latest 1.81 at DraftKings (Thu 01:50 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

J. Melbourne · Over 5.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.85 · last price before start 1.83Won +0.85 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying SEA

SKiki Rice · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 24 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 29 min expected

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

SIsabelle Harrison · 28 min expected

points 15.5 → 17 actual

SMaria Conde · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 4 actual

STemi Fagbenle · 20 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Nurse (27 expected minutes) · Bankole (20 min) · +3 more

Seattle Stormplaying TOR

SJade Melbourne · 31 min expected

assists 5.5 → 7 actual

SFlau'jae Johnson · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 20 actual

SDominique Malonga · 25 min expected

points 19.5 → 18 actual

SEzi Magbegor · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Awa Fam · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 10 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Cooke (18 expected minutes) · Horston (16 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 11:43 UTC

Who is out

Holmes · did not play last game

Thierry · did not play last game

Horston · new starter

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

Out Hiedeman · left shoulder · SEA

Out Sabally · left calf · TOR

Out Green · coach's decision · TOR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Thu 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Fagbenle, Bankole, Magbegor, Malonga, Fam) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Melbourne: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 20.1 in the last 5 games, about 10.9 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 9 days off before this game · SEA had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 129 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Holmes out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Thierry out · did not play

Horston new starter · started, 14.8 min

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · −0.15 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.2% higher than the last before the start · checked Sat 02:52 UTC

Jade Melbourne · assists 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.1 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.85 → Won +0.85 per 1 staked

Laura Juskaite · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.4 min (29 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 2.02 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

8 other players with a posted line

Maria Conde · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.8 min (25 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.79

Kiki Rice · points 16.5 → 24 · 7.5 above the line · played 32.5 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.83

Flau'jae Johnson · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 26.2 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Ezi Magbegor · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.4 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Isabelle Harrison · points 15.5 → 17 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.4 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.75

Dominique Malonga · points 19.5 → 18 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.5 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.81

Temi Fagbenle · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.3 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Awa Fam · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 16.8 min (25 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs TOR · last 3 games · TOR leads · SEA record 1–2 · average score 78.3–85.7 · SEA has lost by 7.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Aug · TOR 78 at SEA 90SEA won

30 May · SEA 72 at TOR 93SEA lost

13 May · SEA 73 at TOR 86SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SEA expected to win by 5, expected total 177.5 (Wed 00:00 UTC) and later SEA expected to win by 6.5, expected total 174 (Thu 02:07 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Laura Juskaite · U 2.5 assists+102value_edge_pct +9.10 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Jade Melbourne · O 5.5 assists−118value_edge_pct +6.49 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Laura Juskaite Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +102 → close +102 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:422072 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · unexplained · actual 3 · 29.4 min · started

Jade Melbourne Over 5.5 ASTWIN +0.85ubet −118 → close −120 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:422071 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · actual 7 · 33.1 min · started

Data fetches · 47

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 45 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 52 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 58 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 67 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 81 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 196 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 230 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 180 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 378 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 501 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 732 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 734 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 449 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 461 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 465 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 469 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 471 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 488 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 493 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 495 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 499 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1031 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 674 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 732 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 743 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 756 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 788 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 789 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 799 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 812 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.