WNBA · Aug 27 gameAll props Full sheet

Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury

FinalWAS 80 – PHO 73Page updated 16:53 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 1 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

1Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play

Out Suarez · - · PHO

2 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Dugalic, Prosper, Brochant, Whitcomb have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 7 of 18 estimates.

Thomas: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Ayayi: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 14.1 in the last 5 games, about 8.9 more than usual

Michaela OnyenwereUnder 2.5 rebounds

WonActual 0

Posted odds1.80Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Michaela’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.80. Last price before tip: 1.80.

Recorded result: +0.80 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 1.78 at DraftKings, Thu 00:00 UTC. Latest included: 1.73 at BetOnline.ag, Fri 01:59 UTC. The 2.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 1.55 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play · Fri 00:15 UTC · 17, 14 and 28 min in the last 3 games

Out Suarez · - · PHO

Players and minutes19 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Washington Mystics

SKiki Iriafen · 30 min expected

points + assists 16.5 → 21 actual

10 more players · no line in this feed

Sonia Citron31 min · source estimate

Shakira Austin30 min · source estimate

Georgia Amoore25 min · source estimate

Michaela Onyenwere23 min · source estimate

Lauren Betts18 min · source estimate

Cotie McMahon17 min · source estimate

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton15 min · source estimate

Alicia Florez7 min · source estimate

Angela Dugalic2 min · source estimate

Cassandre Prosper2 min · source estimate

Phoenix Mercury

SAlyssa Thomas · 34 min expected

points 14.5 → 4 actual

SKahleah Copper · 34 min expected

points 19.5 → 35 actual

SNoemie Brochant · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 4 actual

SSami Whitcomb · 28 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SNatasha Mack · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 10 actual

Valeriane Ayayi · 23 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Kelsey Plum · Out · left lower leg

points 13.5 → did not play, so no result

1 more players · no line in this feed

Maddy Westbeld10 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

WAS expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 165.5 points · odds to win: WAS 1.45, PHO 2.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 02:04 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 16:53 UTC

Who is out

Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 17, 14 and 28 min in the last 3 games

Dugalic · did not play last game

Prosper · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · did not play last game

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Out Suarez · - · PHO

WAS has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Thomas: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Ayayi: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 14.1 in the last 5 games, about 8.9 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 7 of the 64 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Plum out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prosper out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.80 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · checked Sun 02:52 UTC

8 other players with a posted line

Valeriane Ayayi · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 11.8 min (23 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.87

Kahleah Copper · points 19.5 → 35 · 15.5 above the line · played 32.3 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 4 · 10.5 below the line · played 31.5 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Noemie Brochant · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 28.4 min (28 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.80

Sami Whitcomb · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.8 min (28 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.02

Kiki Iriafen · points + assists 16.5 → 21 · 4.5 above the line · played 30.3 min (30 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.86

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.6 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.70

Kelsey Plum · points 13.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs WAS · last 16 games · PHO leads · PHO record 8–8 · average score 79.3–82.6 · PHO has lost by 3.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Aug · WAS 80 at PHO 73PHO lost

25 Aug · WAS 94 at PHO 84PHO lost

9 Aug · PHO 75 at WAS 95PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.2−4.0 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 3.5, expected total 167 (Thu 01:33 UTC) and later WAS expected to win by 6, expected total 165.5 (Fri 02:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Michaela Onyenwere · U 2.5 rebounds−125value_edge_pct +4.91 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Michaela Onyenwere Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.80ubet −125 → close −125 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:425742 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.3% · actual 0 · 16.5 min · bench

Data fetches · 42

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 91 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 95 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 244 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 260 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 270 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 286 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 298 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 95 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 571 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 603 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pa)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 281 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 639 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 414 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 485 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1173 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 801 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 802 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 868 ms

odds player timeline (pa)ok 200 · 875 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 880 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 881 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 943 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1144 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.