WNBA · Aug 28 gameAll props Full sheet

Toronto Tempo at Las Vegas Aces

FinalTOR 73 – LVA 93Page updated 18:15 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 3 availability alerts

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

Nurse, Fagbenle, Turner, Parker-Tyus, Yamamoto, Talbot have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 7 of 20 estimates.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

Players and minutes21 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Toronto Tempo

SKia Nurse · 26 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 13.5 → 15 actual

STemi Fagbenle · 26 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 6 actual

7 more players · no line in this feed

Kiki Rice32 min · source estimate

Isabelle Harrison30 min · source estimate

Laura Juskaite30 min · source estimate

Teonni Key20 min · source estimate

Ornella Bankole18 min · source estimate

Kiana Williams14 min · source estimate

Zaay Green4 min · source estimate

Las Vegas Aces

SJackie Young · 33 min expected

points 20.5 → 23 actual

SA'ja Wilson · 32 min expected

points 25.5 → 27 actual

SChelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 12.5 → 11 actual

SBrianna Turner · 15 min expected

points + rebounds 7.5 → 9 actual

Jewell Loyd · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 6 actual

7 more players · no line in this feed

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus15 min · source estimate

Mai Yamamoto15 min · source estimate

Stephanie Talbot15 min · source estimate

Dana Evans10 min · source estimate

Kierstan Bell5 min · source estimate

Justine Pissott4 min · source estimate

Ta'Niya LatsonOut · Notactivating

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LVA expected to win by about 16 · both teams together expected to score about 175.5 points · odds to win: TOR 9.24, LVA 1.08

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 02:06 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 18:15 UTC

Who is out

Smith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 18 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Nurse · new starter · 6 of 246 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

TOR has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 13 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 8 of the 74 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Smith out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Nurse new starter · started, 24.6 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Mon 02:52 UTC

7 other players with a posted line

Temi Fagbenle · points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 6 · 8.5 below the line · played 20.5 min (26 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.92

Brianna Turner · points + rebounds 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.6 min (15 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.04

Jewell Loyd · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 13.7 min (24 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.87

Jackie Young · points 20.5 → 23 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.1 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.4 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Kia Nurse · points + rebounds + assists 13.5 → 15 · 1.5 above the line · played 24.6 min (26 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 27 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LVA vs TOR · last 3 games · LVA leads · LVA record 3–0 · average score 96.7–78.0 · LVA has won by 18.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · TOR 73 at LVA 93LVA won

23 Aug · LVA 88 at TOR 78LVA won

20 Jul · LVA 109 at TOR 83LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.9 points · 33.9 rebounds · 18.8 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.3% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.1+7.3 vs average

LVA gives up 85.9 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 15.5, expected total 178.5 (Thu 23:33 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 16, expected total 175.5 (Sat 02:06 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 38

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 67 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 112 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 145 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 185 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 187 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 198 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 218 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 154 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 562 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 704 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 273 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pr)ok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 439 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1205 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 910 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 913 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 940 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 952 ms

odds player timeline (pr)ok 200 · 1043 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1043 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1112 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.