WNBA · Aug 29 gameAll props Full sheet

Toronto Tempo at Phoenix Mercury

FinalTOR 69 – PHO 101Page updated 19:18 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 1 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

1Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 5 availability alerts

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

May not play Suarez · - · PHO

Nurse, Fagbenle have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 5 of 18 estimates.

Natasha MackOver 10.5 points

LostActual 8

Posted odds2.38Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Natasha’s points

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.38. Last price before tip: 1.93.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 1.88 at Pinnacle, Sat 15:52 UTC. Latest included: 1.89 at Pinnacle, Sun 01:40 UTC. The line changed from 9.5 to 10.5.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

May not play Suarez · - · PHO

Players and minutes19 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Toronto Tempo

SKiki Rice · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

SIsabelle Harrison · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 16 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 30 min expected

points 12.5 → 10 actual

SKia Nurse · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 2 actual

STemi Fagbenle · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Teonni Key20 min · source estimate

Ornella Bankole18 min · source estimate

Kiana Williams14 min · source estimate

Zaay Green4 min · source estimate

Phoenix Mercury

10 players · no line in this feed

Alyssa Thomas35 min · source estimate

Noemie Brochant26 min · source estimate

Sami Whitcomb24 min · source estimate

Natasha Mack22 min · source estimate

Maddy Westbeld20 min · source estimate

Shay Ciezki15 min · source estimate

Kara Dunn10 min · source estimate

Saylor Poffenbarger8 min · source estimate

Marta Suarez5 min · source estimate

Kahleah CopperMinutes unavailable

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 19:18 UTC

Who is out

Copper · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Tue 01:30 UTC) · 32, 34 and 32 min in the last 3 games

Held · new starter · 8 of 231 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

May not play Suarez · - · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Nurse, Fagbenle have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 5 of 18 estimates.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 12 days off before this game · PHO had 12 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 6 of the 54 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Copper out (Tue 01:30 UTC) · did not play

Held new starter · started, 20.7 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 9.7% higher than the last before the start · checked Tue 02:52 UTC

5 other players with a posted line

Kia Nurse · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 17.8 min (26 expected) · no final price

Temi Fagbenle · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.5 min (26 expected) · no final price

Laura Juskaite · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.2 min (30 expected) · no final price

Kiki Rice · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.9 min (32 expected) · no final price

Isabelle Harrison · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.7 min (30 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

PHO vs TOR · last 3 games · PHO leads · PHO record 2–1 · average score 93.3–82.3 · PHO has won by 11 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Aug · TOR 69 at PHO 101PHO won

27 Jun · PHO 89 at TOR 80PHO won

19 May · TOR 98 at PHO 90PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.1+7.3 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Natasha Mack · O 10.5 points+138value_edge_pct +14.77 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Natasha Mack Over 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +138 → close −107 · CLV +9.7¢ · bet_clv:486528 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 19.4 min · bench

Data fetches · 33

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 156 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 283 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 302 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 306 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 312 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 336 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 397 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 472 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 549 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 735 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 573 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1211 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 680 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 692 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 710 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 727 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.