WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 00:19 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

No game odds posted yet

IND 85 – LVA 102

Final · 2 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 2 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

A. Boston · Over 3.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.78 · last price before start 2.24Won +1.78 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.78 · Our price was 8.7% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

M. Timpson · Over 7.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.26 · last price before start 1.94Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

S. Talbot · Over 5.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.10 · last price before start 1.94Won +1.10 per 1 staked

J. Loyd · Over 2.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.08 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 21 rostered players. 4 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying LVA

11 players have no line from any bookmaker: Clark (34 expected minutes) · Mitchell (34 min) · +9 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying IND

10 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wilson (33 expected minutes) · Young (33 min) · +8 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 00:19 UTC

Who is out

Hall · did not play last game

Onyiah · did not play last game

Hines-Allen · did not play last game

Out Harris · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Sun 00:15 UTC) · 11, 14 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Out Evans · right knee · LVA

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 20:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Hull, Cunningham, Bell, Yamamoto) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 39 days off before this game · LVA had 31 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 4 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Hall out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hines-Allen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harris out (Sun 00:15 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 4 picks won2 won, 2 lost · +0.88 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.6% higher than the last before the start · checked Tue 20:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs IND · last 24 games · LVA leads · LVA record 17–7 · average score 86.0–82.0 · LVA has won by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94LVA won

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99LVA lost

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102LVA won

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84LVA won

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75LVA lost

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 5, expected total 182.5 (Fri 15:41 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 4, expected total 181.5 (Sun 19:55 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 4

Aliyah Boston · O 3.5 assists+178value_edge_pct +26.14 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Makayla Timpson · O 7.5 points+126value_edge_pct +12.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Jewell Loyd · O 2.5 rebounds+108value_edge_pct +7.52 · kelly 1.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 26

Stephanie Talbot · O 5.5 points+110value_edge_pct +7.00 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 32

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 4

Aliyah Boston Over 3.5 ASTWIN +1.78ubet +178 → close +124 · CLV +8.7¢ · bet_clv:1869546 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.4% · actual 4 · 25.0 min · started

Stephanie Talbot Over 5.5 PTSWIN +1.10ubet +110 → close −106 · CLV +3.8¢ · bet_clv:1895699 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 8 · 28.4 min · started

Makayla Timpson Over 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +126 → close −106 · CLV +7.2¢ · bet_clv:1892333 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 24.7 min · started

Jewell Loyd Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +108 · bet_clv:1892332 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.7% · unexplained · actual 2 · 27.6 min · started

Data fetches · 35

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-15)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-14)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 181 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-13)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 223 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 223 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 227 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 229 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 231 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 232 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 278 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 25 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 375 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 416 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 145 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 146 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 147 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.