WNBA · Sep 27 gameAll props Full sheet

New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx

FinalNYL 91 – MIN 75Page updated 20:55 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 7 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

7Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Maley, Fauthoux, Carrera, McDonald, Bibby have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Jonquel JonesOver 2.5 assists

WonActual 3

Posted odds2.50Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Jonquel’s assists

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.50. Last price before tip: 2.14.

Recorded result: +1.50 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Leonie FiebichUnder 7.5 points

LostActual 16

Posted odds2.30

Jonquel JonesOver 15.5 points

LostActual 8

Posted odds2.27

Leonie FiebichUnder 13.5 points + rebounds + assists

LostActual 27

Posted odds2.20

Breanna StewartOver 34.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 52

Posted odds2.15

Pauline AstierOver 0.5 3-pointers

WonActual 1

Posted odds2.02

Marine JohannesOver 5.5 points

LostActual 2

Posted odds2.30

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Players and minutes22 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 22 rostered players. 7 published picks use separate saved records.

New York Liberty

12 players · no line in this feed

Breanna Stewart32 min · source estimate

Sabrina Ionescu30 min · source estimate

Jonquel Jones29 min · source estimate

Leonie Fiebich24 min · source estimate

Pauline Astier23 min · source estimate

Rebecca Allen23 min · source estimate

Marine Johannes15 min · source estimate

Han Xu13 min · source estimate

Rebekah Gardner8 min · source estimate

Anneli Maley1 min · source estimate

Marine Fauthoux1 min · source estimate

Raquel Carrera1 min · source estimate

Minnesota Lynx

10 players · no line in this feed

Olivia Miles34 min · source estimate

Napheesa Collier33 min · source estimate

Kayla McBride32 min · source estimate

Courtney Williams31 min · source estimate

Natasha Howard28 min · source estimate

Dorka Juhasz11 min · source estimate

Maya Caldwell10 min · source estimate

Antonia Delaere3 min · source estimate

Aari McDonald2 min · source estimate

Chloe Bibby2 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 20:55 UTC

Who is out

King · did not play last game

Scott · did not play last game

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 18:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Maley, Fauthoux, Carrera, McDonald, Bibby have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 31 days off before this game · MIN had 41 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 7 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: King out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Scott out · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 7 picks won3 won, 4 lost · −0.33 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.4% higher than the last before the start · checked Tue 18:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIN vs NYL · last 23 games · NYL leads · MIN record 11–12 · average score 79.8–83.4 · MIN has lost by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Sep · MIN 71 at NYL 87MIN lost

27 Sep · NYL 91 at MIN 75MIN lost

18 Sep · NYL 93 at MIN 81MIN lost

11 Jul · NYL 85 at MIN 90MIN won

3 Jul · MIN 86 at NYL 99MIN lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 6.5, expected total 173.5 (Fri 19:04 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 17:28 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 7

Jonquel Jones · O 2.5 assists+150value_edge_pct +31.75 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Jonquel Jones · O 15.5 points+127value_edge_pct +13.34 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Leonie Fiebich · U 13.5 pra+120value_edge_pct +12.10 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Leonie Fiebich · U 7.5 points+130value_edge_pct +11.67 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Breanna Stewart · O 34.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +9.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Marine Johannes · O 5.5 points+130value_edge_pct +9.19 · kelly 1.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 21

Pauline Astier · O 0.5 threes+102value_edge_pct +5.93 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 34

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 7

Leonie Fiebich Under 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 → close −106 · CLV +8.0¢ · bet_clv:1868700 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 16 · 34.2 min · started

Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 ASTWIN +1.50ubet +150 → close +114 · CLV +6.7¢ · bet_clv:1868699 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 3 · 25.9 min · started

Marine Johannes Over 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 → close +128 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:1891469 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.5% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 2 · 9.6 min · bench · excused

Breanna Stewart Over 34.5 PRAWIN +1.15ubet +115 → close −108 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:1891466 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 52 · 37.5 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Under 13.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +120 → close −128 · CLV +10.7¢ · bet_clv:1891468 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 27 · 34.2 min · started

Pauline Astier Over 0.5 3PMWIN +1.02ubet +102 → close −122 · CLV +5.5¢ · bet_clv:1891470 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.4% · actual 1 · 29.0 min · started

Jonquel Jones Over 15.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +127 → close −110 · CLV +8.3¢ · bet_clv:1868698 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 25.9 min · started

Data fetches · 38

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-15)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-14)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-13)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 120 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 135 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 144 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 147 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 149 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 150 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 207 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 215 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 27 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 130 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 138 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 139 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 140 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 142 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 145 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 147 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed · 6004 ms

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