WNBA · Scheduled · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 16:07 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream · starts Sun 23:00 UTC

ATL expected to win by about 7 · both teams together expected to score about 164.5 points · odds to win: WAS 3.35, ATL 1.33

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), 15:41 UTC

Picks not posted yet

Picks are posted before each game. 67 player lines are already posted; the players and risks below are current.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying ATL

Georgia Amoore · minutes unknown

points 8.5

Kiki Iriafen · minutes unknown

points 15.5

Lauren Betts · minutes unknown

points 5.5

Michaela Onyenwere · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5

Shakira Austin · minutes unknown

points 19.5

Sonia Citron · minutes unknown

assists 4.5

Atlanta Dreamplaying WAS

Allisha Gray · minutes unknown

points 18.5

Angel Reese · minutes unknown

rebounds 12.5

DeWanna Bonner · minutes unknown

points 8.5

Jordin Canada · minutes unknown

assists 6.5

Naz Hillmon · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5

Rhyne Howard · minutes unknown

points 18.5

What could go wrong

updated 16:07 UTC

Who is out

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Out Villa · coach's decision · ATL

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

WAS also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 94 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your prediction

closes at game start, Sun 23:00 UTC

No predictions yetYour record: 0 won, 0 lost

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs WAS · last 19 games · WAS leads · ATL record 9–10 · average score 79.9–80.6 · ATL has lost by 0.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

7 Aug · ATL 74 at WAS 79ATL lost

2 Jul · ATL 76 at WAS 81ATL lost

6 Jun · WAS 77 at ATL 109ATL won

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up82.7 points · 30.1 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.8% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.5 points · 31.0 rebounds · 19.2 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.9% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.4 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

ATL gives up 84.5 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−2.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 7, expected total 164.5 (15:41 UTC) and had not changed it by 15:41 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 56

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 68 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 73 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-14)ok 200 · 77 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 89 ms

grading verdict/cardok · 89 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-15)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-13)ok 200 · 91 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 99 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 113 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 201 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 231 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 234 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 209 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 946 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.