WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 00:32 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

No game odds posted yet

WAS 77 – ATL 92

Final · 5 of 10 picks won

10 picks checked: 5 won, 5 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

M. Onyenwere · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.35 · last price before start 2.08Won +1.35 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.35 · Our price was 5.5% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.80 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

G. Amoore · Over 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.33 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

S. Austin · Over 19.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.20 · last price before start 2.00Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

M. Onyenwere · Over 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 2.00Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

G. Amoore · Over 13.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.11 · last price before start 1.83Won +1.11 per 1 staked

G. Amoore · Under 3.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.10 · last price before start 1.68Won +1.10 per 1 staked

S. Austin · Over 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.04 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

G. Amoore · Over 1.5 3-pointersWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start 1.58Won +0.72 per 1 staked

D. Bonner · Over 5.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.85Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

D. Bonner · Over 16.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.13 · last price before start 1.89Won +1.13 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 22 rostered players. 10 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying ATL

11 players have no line from any bookmaker: Citron (33 expected minutes) · Iriafen (30 min) · +9 more

Atlanta Dreamplaying WAS

11 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (33 expected minutes) · Howard (33 min) · +9 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 00:32 UTC

Who is out

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Austin, Iriafen, Reese, Canada) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

WAS had 41 days off before this game · ATL had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 10 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 10 picks won5 won, 5 lost · +0.41 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.0% higher than the last before the start · checked Tue 23:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs WAS · last 21 games · ATL leads · ATL record 11–10 · average score 81.1–80.1 · ATL has won by 1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Sep · ATL 93 at WAS 75ATL won

27 Sep · WAS 77 at ATL 92ATL won

7 Aug · ATL 74 at WAS 79ATL lost

2 Jul · ATL 76 at WAS 81ATL lost

6 Jun · WAS 77 at ATL 109ATL won

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.9 vs average

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 7, expected total 164.5 (Fri 19:04 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 7.5, expected total 164 (Sun 22:56 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 10

Georgia Amoore · O 8.5 points+133value_edge_pct +12.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Michaela Onyenwere · O 2.5 rebounds+135value_edge_pct +9.84 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Shakira Austin · O 19.5 points+120value_edge_pct +8.34 · kelly 1.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 24

DeWanna Bonner · O 16.5 pra+113value_edge_pct +7.87 · kelly 1.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 25

Georgia Amoore · O 13.5 pra+111value_edge_pct +7.51 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 28

Michaela Onyenwere · O 8.5 points+115value_edge_pct +7.36 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 30

DeWanna Bonner · O 5.5 rebounds+115value_edge_pct +7.35 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 31

Georgia Amoore · U 3.5 assists+110value_edge_pct +7.00 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 33

Shakira Austin · O 2.5 assists+104value_edge_pct +5.88 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 35

Georgia Amoore · O 1.5 threes−138value_edge_pct +3.42 · kelly 1.20u · price_check unchecked · rank 39

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 10

DeWanna Bonner Over 16.5 PRAWIN +1.13ubet +113 → close −112 · CLV +5.9¢ · bet_clv:1870288 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.6% · actual 19 · 22.0 min · started

Shakira Austin Over 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 → close +100 · CLV +4.5¢ · bet_clv:1870289 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 33.6 min · started

Michaela Onyenwere Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close +100 · CLV +3.5¢ · bet_clv:1896466 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 26.0 min · started

Michaela Onyenwere Over 2.5 REBWIN +1.35ubet +135 → close +108 · CLV +5.5¢ · bet_clv:1896465 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.7% · actual 4 · 26.0 min · started

Georgia Amoore Over 13.5 PRAWIN +1.11ubet +111 → close −120 · CLV +7.2¢ · bet_clv:1896463 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 15 · 24.3 min · started

Georgia Amoore Over 1.5 3PMWIN +0.72ubet −138 → close −172 · CLV +5.3¢ · bet_clv:1936468 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 60.0% · actual 2 · 24.3 min · startedAmoore connected on 2-of-4 from three (50%), clearing the 1.5 line despite a modest 3-8 overall shooting night and limited 24 minutes. Her efficient three-point stroke was the bright spot in an otherwise quiet offensive outing that saw her turn the ball over four times.

DeWanna Bonner Over 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −117 · CLV +7.4¢ · bet_clv:1878411 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 22.0 min · started

Shakira Austin Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +104 → close −102 · CLV +1.5¢ · bet_clv:1878414 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 33.6 min · started

Georgia Amoore Under 3.5 ASTWIN +1.10ubet +110 → close −146 · CLV +11.7¢ · bet_clv:1878413 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 3 · 24.3 min · started

Georgia Amoore Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +133 → close −102 · CLV +7.6¢ · bet_clv:1896464 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 24.3 min · startedAmoore fell one point shy despite 24 minutes of run, held back by poor shot selection as she connected on just 3 of 8 attempts (37.5% FG) with four turnovers limiting her offensive efficiency. Her 50% true shooting and 20% usage rate were both below her season norms, reflecting a sluggish night that left the over just out of reach.

Data fetches · 41

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-15)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-14)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-13)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 152 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 161 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 162 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 180 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 182 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 230 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 415 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 435 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 35 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 485 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 136 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 140 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 141 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 145 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 160 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 162 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 166 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 168 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 175 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.