WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 2 · GSV leads 1–0updated 00:19 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

No game odds posted yet

GSV 100 – DAL 108

Final · 5 of 9 picks won

9 picks checked: 5 won, 4 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Stokes · Under 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.60 · last price before start 2.11Won +1.60 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.60 · Our price was 8.9% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.90 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

J. Shepard · Under 25.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.33 · last price before start 1.96Won +1.33 per 1 staked

G. Williams · Under 15.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.30 · last price before start 1.94Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

V. Burton · Under 22.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.24 · last price before start 1.93Won +1.24 per 1 staked

G. Williams · Under 18.5 points + assistsLostPosted at 2.22 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

G. Williams · Under 23.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.91Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

K. Stokes · Under 9.5 points + reboundsWonPosted at 2.13 · last price before start 1.98Won +1.13 per 1 staked

P. Bueckers · Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.13 · last price before start 1.88Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

A. Clark · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.04 · last price before start pendingWon +1.04 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 20 rostered players. 9 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying DAL

11 players have no line from any bookmaker: Thornton (25 expected minutes) · Burton (25 min) · +9 more

Dallas Wingsplaying GSV

9 players have no line from any bookmaker: Bueckers (33 expected minutes) · Ogunbowale (32 min) · +7 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 00:19 UTC

Who is out

Jones · did not play last game

Laksa · did not play last game

Yueru · did not play last game

Gueye · did not play last game

Prechtel · did not play last game

Jocyte · did not play last game

Amihere · did not play last game

Sowah · did not play last game

Out Smith · left leg · DAL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Thu 01:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Chen, Hayes, Shepard, Ogunbowale) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV had 9 days off before this game · DAL had 39 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 9 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Laksa out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yueru out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Gueye out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Amihere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 9 picks won5 won, 4 lost · +2.34 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.7% higher than the last before the start · 11 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Sat 01:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs GSV · last 10 games · GSV leads · DAL record 2–8 · average score 80.4–87.5 · DAL has lost by 7.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

2 Oct · DAL 73 at GSV 77DAL lost

30 Sep · GSV 100 at DAL 108DAL won

27 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 104DAL lost

17 Aug · DAL 70 at GSV 78DAL lost

7 Aug · GSV 94 at DAL 76DAL lost

17 Jun · DAL 80 at GSV 91DAL lost

4 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 84DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 4, expected total 155.5 (Tue 01:41 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 4.5, expected total 158 (Thu 00:52 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 9

Jessica Shepard · U 25.5 pra+133value_edge_pct +15.87 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Gabby Williams · U 15.5 points+130value_edge_pct +13.41 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Kiah Stokes · U 5.5 rebounds+160value_edge_pct +12.29 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Veronica Burton · U 22.5 pra+124value_edge_pct +9.87 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Gabby Williams · U 18.5 pa+122value_edge_pct +9.17 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Kiah Stokes · U 9.5 pr+113value_edge_pct +8.53 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Paige Bueckers · O 29.5 pra+113value_edge_pct +8.53 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Alysha Clark · O 2.5 rebounds+104value_edge_pct +7.45 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Gabby Williams · U 23.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +6.97 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 11

Paige Bueckers Over 29.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +113 → close −114 · CLV +6.3¢ · bet_clv:2060539 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 18 · 43.4 min · started

Veronica Burton Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −145 → close −158 · CLV +2.1¢ · bet_clv:2042095 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 36.7 min · started

Jessica Shepard Under 25.5 PRAWIN +1.33ubet +133 → close −104 · CLV +8.1¢ · bet_clv:2042094 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · actual 18 · 40.8 min · started

Veronica Burton Under 22.5 PRAWIN +1.24ubet +124 → close −108 · CLV +7.3¢ · bet_clv:2042096 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · actual 17 · 36.7 min · started

Gabby Williams Under 15.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 → close −106 · CLV +8.0¢ · bet_clv:2042093 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 36 · 36.9 min · started

Maddy Siegrist Over 0.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −180 → close −220 · CLV +4.5¢ · bet_clv:2060538 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.1% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 0 · 9.6 min · bench · excused

Kiah Stokes Under 9.5 PRWIN +1.13ubet +113 → close −102 · CLV +3.5¢ · bet_clv:2060537 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 5 · 25.0 min · started

Kiah Stokes Under 5.5 REBWIN +1.60ubet +160 → close +111 · CLV +8.9¢ · bet_clv:2060536 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.2% · actual 5 · 25.0 min · started

Gabby Williams Under 18.5 PALOSS −1.00ubet +122 → close −102 · CLV +5.5¢ · bet_clv:2060534 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 43 · 36.9 min · started

Gabby Williams Under 23.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −110 · CLV +5.9¢ · bet_clv:2060533 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 49 · 36.9 min · started

Alysha Clark Over 2.5 REBWIN +1.04ubet +104 · bet_clv:2051695 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 3 · 30.9 min · started

Data fetches · 40

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 87 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 87 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 87 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 131 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 299 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 299 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 306 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 309 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 26 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 343 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 158 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 159 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 160 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 161 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 162 ms

odds player timeline (pa)failed 503 · 164 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 165 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 164 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 165 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed · 6002 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.