WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 3 · series tied 1–1updated 00:19 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

No game odds posted yet

IND 83 – LVA 94

Final · 5 of 12 picks won

12 picks checked: 5 won, 7 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

A. Boston · Under 7.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.47 · last price before start 2.18Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.47 · Our price was 5.4% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.90 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

L. Hull · Under 3.5 rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.40 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

A. Wilson · Under 41.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.35 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

A. Boston · Under 14.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.30 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

L. Hull · Under 7.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.30 · last price before start 1.98Won +1.30 per 1 staked

C. Gray · Under 15.5 points + reboundsLostPosted at 2.23 · last price before start 2.00Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

C. Gray · Under 9.5 rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.22 · last price before start 2.14Won +1.22 per 1 staked

A. Boston · Over 19.5 points + assistsWonPosted at 2.08 · last price before start 1.80Won +1.08 per 1 staked

C. Parker-Tyus · Under 4.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.56 · last price before start 1.97Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

R. Johnson · Under 6.5 points + reboundsWonPosted at 2.40 · last price before start 2.02Won +1.40 per 1 staked

R. Johnson · Under 4.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.30 · last price before start 1.98Won +1.30 per 1 staked

C. Parker-Tyus · Under 8.5 points + reboundsLostPosted at 2.25 · last price before start 1.88Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 22 rostered players. 12 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying LVA

11 players have no line from any bookmaker: Clark (34 expected minutes) · Mitchell (34 min) · +9 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying IND

11 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wilson (35 expected minutes) · Young (35 min) · +9 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 00:19 UTC

Who is out

Pissott · did not play last game

Brown · did not play last game

Bell · did not play last game

Talbot · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Sat 01:00 UTC) · 21, 21 and 27 min in the last 3 games

Loyd · new starter · 18 of 803 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Out Evans · right knee · LVA

Out Harris · left leg · IND

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 01:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Hull, Cunningham, Wilson, Young) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 39 days off before this game · LVA had 31 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 12 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Pissott out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Brown out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Talbot out (Sat 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Loyd new starter · started, 35.3 min

5 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 12 picks won5 won, 7 lost · −0.70 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 7.2% higher than the last before the start · 16 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Sun 01:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs IND · last 24 games · LVA leads · LVA record 17–7 · average score 86.0–82.0 · LVA has won by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94LVA won

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99LVA lost

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102LVA won

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84LVA won

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75LVA lost

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 4, expected total 181.5 (Wed 12:44 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 4.5, expected total 181.5 (Fri 00:48 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 15

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · U 4.5 points+156value_edge_pct +22.89 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Raven Johnson · U 6.5 pr+140value_edge_pct +20.58 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

A'ja Wilson · U 41.5 pra+135value_edge_pct +17.04 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · U 8.5 pr+125value_edge_pct +14.64 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Chelsea Gray · U 15.5 pr+123value_edge_pct +13.62 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Chelsea Gray · U 9.5 ra+122value_edge_pct +12.48 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Aliyah Boston · U 14.5 points+130value_edge_pct +11.93 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Raven Johnson · U 4.5 points+130value_edge_pct +11.72 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Aliyah Boston · U 7.5 rebounds+147value_edge_pct +11.15 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Lexie Hull · U 7.5 pra+130value_edge_pct +9.84 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · O 6.5 points+128value_edge_pct +9.61 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Aliyah Boston · O 16.5 points+123value_edge_pct +9.38 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Lexie Hull · U 3.5 ra+140value_edge_pct +9.12 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Lexie Hull · O 8.5 pra+112value_edge_pct +8.02 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Aliyah Boston · O 19.5 pa+108value_edge_pct +6.82 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 16

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Over 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +128 → close +100 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:2068208 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 21.9 min · started

Chelsea Gray Under 15.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +123 → close +100 · CLV +5.2¢ · bet_clv:2068206 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 27 · 40.0 min · started

Aliyah Boston Under 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +147 → close +118 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:2065021 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 10 · 31.5 min · startedBoston dominated the glass with 10 rebounds in 32 minutes, converting 50% of her shot attempts and drawing four fouls that kept her on the court despite foul trouble, easily clearing the 7.5 line.

Raven Johnson Under 6.5 PRWIN +1.40ubet +140 → close +102 · CLV +7.8¢ · bet_clv:2065022 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 6 · 18.8 min · bench

Aliyah Boston Over 19.5 PAWIN +1.08ubet +108 → close −125 · CLV +7.5¢ · bet_clv:2067351 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.4% · actual 22 · 31.5 min · started

Raven Johnson Under 4.5 PTSWIN +1.30ubet +130 → close −102 · CLV +7.0¢ · bet_clv:2065023 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · actual 2 · 18.8 min · bench

Aliyah Boston Over 16.5 PTSWIN +1.23ubet +123 → close −104 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:2067350 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · actual 19 · 31.5 min · started

Aliyah Boston Over 0.5 3PMWIN +0.61ubet −165 → close −220 · CLV +6.5¢ · bet_clv:2067352 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.8% · actual 2 · 31.5 min · started

Chelsea Gray Under 9.5 RAWIN +1.22ubet +122 → close +114 · CLV +1.7¢ · bet_clv:2067353 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · actual 9 · 40.0 min · started

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Under 8.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +125 → close −114 · CLV +8.8¢ · bet_clv:2068209 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 21.9 min · started

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Under 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +156 → close −103 · CLV +11.7¢ · bet_clv:2068207 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 21.9 min · started

A'ja Wilson Under 41.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +135 → close −102 · CLV +7.9¢ · bet_clv:2068204 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 47 · 37.1 min · started

Lexie Hull Over 8.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +112 → close −136 · CLV +10.5¢ · bet_clv:2067355 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 13.5 min · bench

Lexie Hull Under 7.5 PRAWIN +1.30ubet +130 → close −102 · CLV +7.0¢ · bet_clv:2067356 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.8% · actual 4 · 13.5 min · bench

Lexie Hull Under 3.5 RALOSS −1.00ubet +140 → close −102 · CLV +8.8¢ · bet_clv:2067354 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 13.5 min · bench

Aliyah Boston Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2067349 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.7% · unexplained · actual 19 · 31.5 min · started

Data fetches · 41

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 134 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 134 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-30)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 146 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 183 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 201 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 208 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 212 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 42 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 55 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 242 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 243 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 244 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 244 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 245 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 246 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 247 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 247 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 249 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 452 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 468 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.