WNBA · Oct 2 gameAll props Full sheet

Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries

FinalDAL 73 – GSV 77Page updated 23:48 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 7 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

7Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Smith · left leg · DAL

7 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Hayes, Chen have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 12 of 20 estimates.

Kuier: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 8.0 fewer than usual

Clark: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 16.6 in the last 5 games, about 9.4 more than usual

Stokes: expected to play 21 minutes, averaged 29.5 in the last 5 games, about 8.5 fewer than usual

Burton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 31.7 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 fewer than usual

Williams: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 33.3 in the last 5 games, about 10.3 fewer than usual

Thornton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 13.6 in the last 5 games, about 11.4 more than usual

Salaun: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 6.6 in the last 5 games, about 16.4 more than usual

Gabby WilliamsOver 4.5 assists

LostActual 2

Posted odds2.70Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Gabby’s assists

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.70. Last price before tip: 2.17.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Jessica ShepardUnder 9.5 rebounds

LostActual 12

Posted odds2.34

Cecilia ZandalasiniUnder 10.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 7

Posted odds2.30

Paige BueckersOver 1.5 3-pointers

LostActual 1

Posted odds1.90

Janelle SalaunUnder 14.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 3

Posted odds2.38

Janelle SalaunUnder 4.5 rebounds + assists

WonActual 0

Posted odds2.11

Alysha ClarkUnder 3.5 rebounds

LostActual 7

Posted odds1.73

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Smith · left leg · DAL

Players and minutes20 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Dallas Wings

SJessica Shepard · 35 min expected

rebounds 9.5 → 12 actual

SPaige Bueckers · 33 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SArike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 30 actual

SAwak Kuier · 19 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual

Alysha Clark · 26 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 7 actual

Aziaha James · 16 min expected

points 5.5 → 2 actual

3 more players · no line in this feed

Odyssey Sims22 min · source estimate

Maddy Siegrist12 min · source estimate

Li Yueru5 min · source estimate

Golden State Valkyries

SKayla Thornton · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 0 actual

SVeronica Burton · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 16 actual

SGabby Williams · 23 min expected

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

SKiah Stokes · 21 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 13 actual

SCecilia Zandalasini · 20 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 7 actual

Janelle Salaun · 23 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 3 actual

Kaila Charles · 20 min expected

points 5.5 → 10 actual

Tiffany Hayes · 18 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

3 more players · no line in this feed

Kaitlyn Chen18 min · source estimate

Laeticia Amihere5 min · source estimate

Juste Jocyte2 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

GSV expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 159.5 points · odds to win: DAL 4.15, GSV 1.26

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 01:04 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 23:48 UTC

Who is out

Gueye · did not play last game

Prechtel · did not play last game

Jocyte · did not play last game

Amihere · did not play last game

Sowah · did not play last game

Out Smith · left leg · DAL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 01:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Kuier: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 8.0 fewer than usual

Clark: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 16.6 in the last 5 games, about 9.4 more than usual

Stokes: expected to play 21 minutes, averaged 29.5 in the last 5 games, about 8.5 fewer than usual

Burton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 31.7 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 fewer than usual

Williams: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 33.3 in the last 5 games, about 10.3 fewer than usual

Thornton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 13.6 in the last 5 games, about 11.4 more than usual

Salaun: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 6.6 in the last 5 games, about 16.4 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL had 38 days off before this game · GSV had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 30 of the 222 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Gueye out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Amihere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 7 picks won3 won, 4 lost · −0.21 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 5.9% higher than the last before the start · 10 lines checked, 3 scored but not picked · checked Mon 01:52 UTC

Alysha Clark · rebounds 3.5 → 7 · 3.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (26 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held

Pick: Under 3.5 at 1.73 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Janelle Salaun · points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 3 · 11.5 below the line · played 7.6 min (23 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift

Pick: Under 14.5 at 2.38 → Won +1.38 per 1 staked · Result skewed by game events

Gabby Williams · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.6 min (23 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift

Pick: Over 4.5 at 2.70 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Paige Bueckers · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.1 min (33 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · High-Leverage / OT Extension

Pick: Over 1.5 at 1.90 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Cecilia Zandalasini · points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 15.6 min (20 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance

Pick: Under 10.5 at 2.30 → Won +1.30 per 1 staked

Jessica Shepard · rebounds 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 39.8 min (35 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · High-Leverage / OT Extension

Pick: Under 9.5 at 2.34 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

8 other players with a posted line

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 13 · 7.5 above the line · played 34.8 min (21 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Kayla Thornton · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 13.7 min (25 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Foul Trouble / Early Exit · no final price

Arike Ogunbowale · points 15.5 → 30 · 14.5 above the line · played 33.9 min (32 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Kaila Charles · points 5.5 → 10 · 4.5 above the line · played 27.5 min (20 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Aziaha James · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 7.9 min (16 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Veronica Burton · points 12.5 → 16 · 3.5 above the line · played 36.7 min (25 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Tiffany Hayes · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.8 min (18 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Awak Kuier · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (19 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

GSV vs DAL · last 10 games · GSV leads · GSV record 8–2 · average score 87.5–80.4 · GSV has won by 7.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

2 Oct · DAL 73 at GSV 77GSV won

30 Sep · GSV 100 at DAL 108GSV lost

27 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 104GSV won

17 Aug · DAL 70 at GSV 78GSV won

7 Aug · GSV 94 at DAL 76GSV won

17 Jun · DAL 80 at GSV 91GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 8, expected total 157.5 (Thu 12:41 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 8, expected total 159.5 (Sat 01:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 8

Gabby Williams · O 4.5 assists+170value_edge_pct +17.64 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Janelle Salaun · U 14.5 pra+138value_edge_pct +14.45 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Cecilia Zandalasini · U 10.5 pra+130value_edge_pct +14.32 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Janelle Salaun · U 15.5 pra+120value_edge_pct +12.10 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Jessica Shepard · U 9.5 rebounds+134value_edge_pct +9.03 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Janelle Salaun · U 4.5 ra+111value_edge_pct +7.51 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Alysha Clark · U 3.5 rebounds−137value_edge_pct +5.89 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Paige Bueckers · O 1.5 threes−111value_edge_pct +5.14 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 10

Gabby Williams Over 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +170 → close +117 · CLV +9.0¢ · bet_clv:2084462 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 30.6 min · started

Cecilia Zandalasini Under 10.5 PRAWIN +1.30ubet +130 → close +100 · CLV +6.5¢ · bet_clv:2084461 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · actual 7 · 15.6 min · bench

Jessica Shepard Under 9.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +134 → close −109 · CLV +9.4¢ · bet_clv:2088467 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 39.8 min · started

Cecilia Zandalasini Under 1.5 3PMWIN +0.61ubet −163 → close −188 · CLV +3.3¢ · bet_clv:2088462 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.7% · actual 0 · 15.6 min · bench

Paige Bueckers Over 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −111 → close −118 · CLV +1.5¢ · bet_clv:2084466 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 38.1 min · started

Awak Kuier Over 0.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −182 → close −240 · CLV +6.0¢ · bet_clv:2088461 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 33.3 min · started

Alysha Clark Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −137 · bet_clv:2088460 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.2% · unexplained · actual 7 · 25.1 min · started

Janelle Salaun Under 4.5 RAWIN +1.11ubet +111 → close +111 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:2084465 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 0 · 7.6 min · bench · excused

Janelle Salaun Under 14.5 PRAWIN +1.38ubet +138 → close −103 · CLV +8.7¢ · bet_clv:2084464 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 3 · 7.6 min · bench · excused

Janelle Salaun Under 15.5 PRAWIN +1.20ubet +120 → close −117 · CLV +8.5¢ · bet_clv:2084463 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 3 · 7.6 min · bench · excused

Data fetches · 68

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 111 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-01)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-30)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 136 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 139 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 142 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 143 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 173 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 219 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 237 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 130 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 130 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 138 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 139 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 144 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 145 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 147 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 291 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 156 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1040 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 120 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 120 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 121 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 124 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 305 ms

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