WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 3 · series tied 1–1updated 00:18 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries

GSV expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 159.5 points · odds to win: DAL 4.15, GSV 1.26

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 01:04 UTC

DAL 73 – GSV 77

Final · 3 of 7 picks won

7 picks checked: 3 won, 4 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

G. Williams · Over 4.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.70 · last price before start 2.17Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.70 · Our price was 9.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.57 by Pinnacle (Fri 01:22 UTC); latest 1.70 at Pinnacle (Fri 20:39 UTC). The 3.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

J. Shepard · Under 9.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.34 · last price before start 1.92Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

C. Zandalasini · Under 10.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.30 · last price before start 2.00Won +1.30 per 1 staked

P. Bueckers · Over 1.5 3-pointersLostPosted at 1.90 · last price before start 1.85Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Salaun · Under 14.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.38 · last price before start 1.97Won +1.38 per 1 staked

J. Salaun · Under 4.5 rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.11 · last price before start 2.11Won +1.11 per 1 staked

A. Clark · Under 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.73 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 2 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying GSV

SJessica Shepard · 35 min expected

rebounds 9.5 → 12 actual

SPaige Bueckers · 33 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SArike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 30 actual

SAwak Kuier · 19 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual

Alysha Clark · 26 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 7 actual

Aziaha James · 16 min expected

points 5.5 → 2 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sims (22 expected minutes) · Siegrist (12 min) · Yueru (5 min)

Golden State Valkyriesplaying DAL

SKayla Thornton · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 0 actual

SVeronica Burton · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 16 actual

SGabby Williams · 23 min expected

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

SKiah Stokes · 21 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 13 actual

SCecilia Zandalasini · 20 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 7 actual

Janelle Salaun · 23 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 3 actual

Kaila Charles · 20 min expected

points 5.5 → 10 actual

Tiffany Hayes · 18 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Chen (18 expected minutes) · Amihere (5 min) · Jocyte (2 min)

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 00:18 UTC

Who is out

Gueye · did not play last game

Prechtel · did not play last game

Jocyte · did not play last game

Amihere · did not play last game

Sowah · did not play last game

Out Smith · left leg · DAL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 01:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

7 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Chen, Hayes) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Kuier: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 8.0 fewer than usual

Clark: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 16.6 in the last 5 games, about 9.4 more than usual

Stokes: expected to play 21 minutes, averaged 29.5 in the last 5 games, about 8.5 fewer than usual

Burton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 31.7 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 fewer than usual

Williams: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 33.3 in the last 5 games, about 10.3 fewer than usual

Thornton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 13.6 in the last 5 games, about 11.4 more than usual

Salaun: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 6.6 in the last 5 games, about 16.4 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL had 39 days off before this game · GSV had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 30 of the 222 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Gueye out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Amihere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 7 picks won3 won, 4 lost · −0.21 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 5.9% higher than the last before the start · 10 lines checked, 3 scored but not picked · checked Mon 01:52 UTC

Alysha Clark · rebounds 3.5 → 7 · 3.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (26 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held

Pick: Under 3.5 at 1.73 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Janelle Salaun · points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 3 · 11.5 below the line · played 7.6 min (23 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift

Pick: Under 14.5 at 2.38 → Won +1.38 per 1 staked · Result skewed by game events

Gabby Williams · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.6 min (23 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift

Pick: Over 4.5 at 2.70 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Paige Bueckers · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.1 min (33 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · High-Leverage / OT Extension

Pick: Over 1.5 at 1.90 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Cecilia Zandalasini · points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 15.6 min (20 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance

Pick: Under 10.5 at 2.30 → Won +1.30 per 1 staked

Jessica Shepard · rebounds 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 39.8 min (35 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · High-Leverage / OT Extension

Pick: Under 9.5 at 2.34 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

8 other players with a posted line

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 13 · 7.5 above the line · played 34.8 min (21 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Kayla Thornton · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 13.7 min (25 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Foul Trouble / Early Exit · no final price

Arike Ogunbowale · points 15.5 → 30 · 14.5 above the line · played 33.9 min (32 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Kaila Charles · points 5.5 → 10 · 4.5 above the line · played 27.5 min (20 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Aziaha James · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 7.9 min (16 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Veronica Burton · points 12.5 → 16 · 3.5 above the line · played 36.7 min (25 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Tiffany Hayes · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.8 min (18 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Awak Kuier · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (19 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs DAL · last 10 games · GSV leads · GSV record 8–2 · average score 87.5–80.4 · GSV has won by 7.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

2 Oct · DAL 73 at GSV 77GSV won

30 Sep · GSV 100 at DAL 108GSV lost

27 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 104GSV won

17 Aug · DAL 70 at GSV 78GSV won

7 Aug · GSV 94 at DAL 76GSV won

17 Jun · DAL 80 at GSV 91GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 8, expected total 157.5 (Thu 12:41 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 8, expected total 159.5 (Sat 01:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 8

Gabby Williams · O 4.5 assists+170value_edge_pct +17.64 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Janelle Salaun · U 14.5 pra+138value_edge_pct +14.45 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Cecilia Zandalasini · U 10.5 pra+130value_edge_pct +14.32 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Janelle Salaun · U 15.5 pra+120value_edge_pct +12.10 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Jessica Shepard · U 9.5 rebounds+134value_edge_pct +9.03 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Janelle Salaun · U 4.5 ra+111value_edge_pct +7.51 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Alysha Clark · U 3.5 rebounds−137value_edge_pct +5.89 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Paige Bueckers · O 1.5 threes−111value_edge_pct +5.14 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 10

Gabby Williams Over 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +170 → close +117 · CLV +9.0¢ · bet_clv:2084462 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 30.6 min · started

Cecilia Zandalasini Under 10.5 PRAWIN +1.30ubet +130 → close +100 · CLV +6.5¢ · bet_clv:2084461 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · actual 7 · 15.6 min · bench

Jessica Shepard Under 9.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +134 → close −109 · CLV +9.4¢ · bet_clv:2088467 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 39.8 min · started

Cecilia Zandalasini Under 1.5 3PMWIN +0.61ubet −163 → close −188 · CLV +3.3¢ · bet_clv:2088462 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.7% · actual 0 · 15.6 min · bench

Paige Bueckers Over 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −111 → close −118 · CLV +1.5¢ · bet_clv:2084466 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 38.1 min · started

Awak Kuier Over 0.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −182 → close −240 · CLV +6.0¢ · bet_clv:2088461 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 33.3 min · started

Alysha Clark Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −137 · bet_clv:2088460 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.2% · unexplained · actual 7 · 25.1 min · started

Janelle Salaun Under 4.5 RAWIN +1.11ubet +111 → close +111 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:2084465 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 0 · 7.6 min · bench · excused

Janelle Salaun Under 14.5 PRAWIN +1.38ubet +138 → close −103 · CLV +8.7¢ · bet_clv:2084464 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 3 · 7.6 min · bench · excused

Janelle Salaun Under 15.5 PRAWIN +1.20ubet +120 → close −117 · CLV +8.5¢ · bet_clv:2084463 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 3 · 7.6 min · bench · excused

Data fetches · 68

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 134 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 135 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 161 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 197 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-01)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-30)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 264 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 271 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 273 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 274 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 278 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 280 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 27 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 79 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 137 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 191 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 192 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 192 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 203 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 512 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 232 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 233 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 233 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 250 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 297 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 843 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 910 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.