WNBA · Oct 4 gameAll props Full sheet

New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream

FinalNYL 82 – ATL 92Page updated 13:56 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 5 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

5Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left knee

Maley, Fauthoux, Carrera, Reese, Canada have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Jonquel JonesUnder 8.5 rebounds

LostActual 11

Posted odds2.33Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Jonquel’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.33. Last price before tip: 2.07.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 1.65 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Pauline AstierUnder 10.5 points + assists

WonActual 10

Posted odds2.32

Leonie FiebichOver 14.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 19

Posted odds2.22

DeWanna BonnerOver 13.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 34

Posted odds2.36

DeWanna BonnerUnder 6.5 points

LostActual 23

Posted odds2.20

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left knee

Players and minutes23 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 23 rostered players. 5 published picks use separate saved records.

New York Liberty

12 players · no line in this feed

Breanna Stewart32 min · source estimate

Jonquel Jones29 min · source estimate

Sabrina Ionescu29 min · source estimate

Leonie Fiebich24 min · source estimate

Pauline Astier23 min · source estimate

Rebecca Allen23 min · source estimate

Marine Johannes14 min · source estimate

Han Xu13 min · source estimate

Rebekah Gardner10 min · source estimate

Anneli Maley1 min · source estimate

Marine Fauthoux1 min · source estimate

Raquel Carrera1 min · source estimate

Atlanta Dream

11 players · no line in this feed

Allisha Gray33 min · source estimate

Rhyne Howard33 min · source estimate

Angel Reese32 min · source estimate

Jordin Canada32 min · source estimate

Naz Hillmon26 min · source estimate

DeWanna Bonner17 min · source estimate

Madina Okot9 min · source estimate

Te-Hina Paopao7 min · source estimate

Isobel Borlase6 min · source estimate

Sika Kone3 min · source estimate

Shatori Walker-Kimbrough2 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 13:56 UTC

Who is out

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left knee

NYL has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 18:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Maley, Fauthoux, Carrera, Reese, Canada have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 37 days off before this game · ATL had 15 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 5 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: B. Jones (ATL) out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

4 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 5 picks won3 won, 2 lost · +1.90 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.3% higher than the last before the start · checked Tue 18:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

ATL vs NYL · last 24 games · NYL leads · ATL record 10–14 · average score 81.8–85.3 · ATL has lost by 3.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Oct · ATL 85 at NYL 83ATL won

7 Oct · NYL 98 at ATL 101ATL won

4 Oct · NYL 82 at ATL 92ATL won

23 Sep · ATL 83 at NYL 65ATL won

21 Sep · ATL 95 at NYL 84ATL won

11 Jun · NYL 104 at ATL 90ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 173.5 (Sat 05:49 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 5, expected total 172.5 (Sun 17:57 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

DeWanna Bonner · O 13.5 pra+136value_edge_pct +13.07 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Leonie Fiebich · O 14.5 pra+122value_edge_pct +9.81 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Pauline Astier · U 10.5 pa+132value_edge_pct +9.41 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Jonquel Jones · U 8.5 rebounds+133value_edge_pct +8.91 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

DeWanna Bonner · U 6.5 points+120value_edge_pct +7.91 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 5

Pauline Astier Under 10.5 PAWIN +1.32ubet +132 → close +102 · CLV +6.4¢ · bet_clv:2125310 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.2% · actual 10 · 21.2 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Over 14.5 PRAWIN +1.22ubet +122 → close −109 · CLV +7.1¢ · bet_clv:2125309 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.5% · actual 19 · 35.7 min · started

Jonquel Jones Under 8.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +133 → close +107 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:2125308 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 11 · 31.6 min · started

DeWanna Bonner Over 13.5 PRAWIN +1.36ubet +136 → close −109 · CLV +9.8¢ · bet_clv:2121972 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · actual 34 · 30.4 min · started

DeWanna Bonner Under 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 → close +107 · CLV +2.9¢ · bet_clv:2121971 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 23 · 30.4 min · started

Data fetches · 36

sds games/date (2026-10-03)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-01)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-02)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-30)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 27 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 28 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 107 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 80 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 84 ms

odds player timeline (pa)failed 503 · 85 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 85 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 86 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 124 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 143 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 159 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1047 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1283 ms

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