WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 2 · ATL leads 1–0updated 14:06 UTC

New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 170 points · odds to win: NYL 2.18, ATL 1.72

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 23:35 UTC

NYL 98 – ATL 101

Final · 5 of 12 picks won

13 picks checked: 5 won, 7 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

D. Bonner · Over 13.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.56 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.56 · Our price was 11.4% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

D. Bonner · Under 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.56 · last price before start 2.04Won +1.56 per 1 staked

J. Canada · Under 6.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.53 · last price before start 2.08Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

A. Reese · Under 14.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.38 · last price before start 1.99Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

R. Howard · Under 7.5 rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.38 · last price before start 2.18Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Canada · Over 14.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.25 · last price before start 1.93Won +1.25 per 1 staked

J. Jones · Under 23.5 points + reboundsLostPosted at 2.17 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Jones · Under 26.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.17 · last price before start 1.93Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

R. Howard · Under 22.5 points + assistsWonPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.91Won +1.15 per 1 staked

N. Hillmon · Over 12.5 points + reboundsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 2.02Won +1.00 per 1 staked

L. Fiebich · Over 1.5 3-pointersLostPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.77Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Jones · Over 1.5 3-pointersWonPosted at 1.85 · last price before start 1.63Won +0.85 per 1 staked

A. Gray · Over 18.5 pointsWithdrawn: outPosted at 2.10 · last price before start 1.83Refunded +0.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying ATL

SBreanna Stewart · 32 min expected

points 21.5 → 35 actual

SJonquel Jones · 29 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 29 min expected

points 15.5 → 10 actual

SLeonie Fiebich · 24 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

SPauline Astier · 23 min expected

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Marine Johannes · 14 min expected

assists 1.5 → 1 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allen (23 expected minutes) · Xu (13 min) · +4 more

Atlanta Dreamplaying NYL

SRhyne Howard · 36 min expected

rebounds + assists 7.5 → 11 actual

SAngel Reese · 35 min expected

points 14.5 → 23 actual

SJordin Canada · 35 min expected

assists 6.5 → 8 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 29 min expected

points + rebounds 12.5 → 20 actual

SDeWanna Bonner · 22 min expected

points 13.5 → 10 actual

Isobel Borlase · 10 min expected

points 2.5 → 11 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Okot (12 expected minutes) · Paopao (10 min) · +2 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 14:06 UTC

Who is out

Gray · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 19:00 UTC) · 30, 22 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left leg

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 5 players (Carrera, Maley, Fauthoux, Borlase, Paopao) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Stewart: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 38.7 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 fewer than usual

Fiebich: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 30.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 fewer than usual

Johannes: expected to play only 14 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Bonner: expected to play 22 minutes, averaged 15.1 in the last 5 games, about 6.9 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 37 days off before this game · ATL had 15 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 44 of the 254 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Gray out (Sat 19:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: B. Jones (ATL) out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

4 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 13 picks won5 won, 7 lost · −1.19 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.5% higher than the last before the start · checked Fri 23:52 UTC

Leonie Fiebich · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 42.8 min (24 expected) · Way Off Outlier · High-Leverage / OT Extension

Pick: Over 1.5 at 1.98 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Naz Hillmon · points + rebounds 12.5 → 20 · 7.5 above the line · played 43.5 min (29 expected) · Way Off Outlier · High-Leverage / OT Extension

Pick: Over 12.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

Angel Reese · points 14.5 → 23 · 8.5 above the line · played 39.1 min (35 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance

Pick: Under 14.5 at 2.38 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Rhyne Howard · rebounds + assists 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 43.6 min (36 expected) · Way Off Outlier · High-Leverage / OT Extension

Pick: Under 7.5 at 2.38 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Jonquel Jones · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 38 min (29 expected) · Way Off Outlier · High-Leverage / OT Extension

Pick: Over 1.5 at 1.85 → Won +0.85 per 1 staked

DeWanna Bonner · points 13.5 → 10 · 3.5 below the line · played 34.5 min (22 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift

Pick: Over 13.5 at 2.56 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Jordin Canada · assists 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 39.3 min (35 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance

Pick: Under 6.5 at 2.53 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

5 other players with a posted line

Isobel Borlase · points 2.5 → 11 · 8.5 above the line · played 13.6 min (10 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · ProphetX odds: Over 7.40, Under —

Breanna Stewart · points 21.5 → 35 · 13.5 above the line · played 43 min (32 expected) · Way Off Outlier · High-Leverage / OT Extension · no final price

Pauline Astier · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 14.1 min (23 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 15.5 → 10 · 5.5 below the line · played 38.4 min (29 expected) · Way Off Outlier · High-Leverage / OT Extension · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Marine Johannes · assists 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 3.2 min (14 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs NYL · last 24 games · NYL leads · ATL record 10–14 · average score 81.8–85.3 · ATL has lost by 3.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Oct · ATL 85 at NYL 83ATL won

7 Oct · NYL 98 at ATL 101ATL won

4 Oct · NYL 82 at ATL 92ATL won

23 Sep · ATL 83 at NYL 65ATL won

21 Sep · ATL 95 at NYL 84ATL won

11 Jun · NYL 104 at ATL 90ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 3, expected total 172.5 (Mon 13:46 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 2.5, expected total 170 (Wed 23:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 13

DeWanna Bonner · O 13.5 points+156value_edge_pct +30.18 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

DeWanna Bonner · U 5.5 rebounds+156value_edge_pct +21.64 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Jordin Canada · U 6.5 assists+153value_edge_pct +12.08 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Angel Reese · U 14.5 points+138value_edge_pct +10.84 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Jordin Canada · O 14.5 points+125value_edge_pct +10.79 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Jonquel Jones · U 23.5 pr+117value_edge_pct +10.57 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Rhyne Howard · U 22.5 pa+115value_edge_pct +9.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Rhyne Howard · U 7.5 ra+138value_edge_pct +9.50 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Jonquel Jones · U 26.5 pra+117value_edge_pct +8.29 · kelly 1.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Allisha Gray · O 18.5 points+110value_edge_pct +8.03 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Naz Hillmon · O 12.5 pr+100value_edge_pct +7.19 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 16

Leonie Fiebich · O 1.5 threes−102value_edge_pct +6.24 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Jonquel Jones · O 1.5 threes−118value_edge_pct +5.38 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 13

Jonquel Jones Over 1.5 3PMWIN +0.85ubet −118 → close −158 · CLV +7.1¢ · bet_clv:2193534 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.0% · actual 2 · 38.0 min · started

Jordin Canada Over 14.5 PTSWIN +1.25ubet +125 → close −107 · CLV +7.2¢ · bet_clv:2193535 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · actual 23 · 39.3 min · started

Jonquel Jones Under 26.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +117 → close −108 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:2186915 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 29 · 38.0 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −102 → close −130 · CLV +6.0¢ · bet_clv:2186917 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 42.8 min · started

Rhyne Howard Under 7.5 RALOSS −1.00ubet +138 → close +118 · CLV +3.9¢ · bet_clv:2186919 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 11 · 43.6 min · started

Jordin Canada Under 6.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +153 → close +108 · CLV +8.6¢ · bet_clv:2186916 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 39.3 min · started

Angel Reese Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +138 → close −101 · CLV +8.2¢ · bet_clv:2186911 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 23 · 39.1 min · started

Naz Hillmon Over 12.5 PRWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close +102 · CLV −0.5¢ · bet_clv:2184008 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 20 · 43.5 min · started

Rhyne Howard Under 22.5 PAWIN +1.15ubet +115 → close −110 · CLV +5.9¢ · bet_clv:2184009 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 22 · 43.6 min · started

DeWanna Bonner Under 5.5 REBWIN +1.56ubet +156 → close +104 · CLV +10.0¢ · bet_clv:2184006 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.5% · actual 4 · 34.5 min · started

Allisha Gray Over 18.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +110 → close −120 · CLV +6.9¢ · bet_clv:2184004 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.4% · actual 0

Jonquel Jones Under 23.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +117 → close −102 · CLV +4.4¢ · bet_clv:2184007 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 29 · 38.0 min · started

DeWanna Bonner Over 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +156 → close −102 · CLV +11.4¢ · bet_clv:2184005 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 10 · 34.5 min · started

Data fetches · 70

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-03)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-05)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-06)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 61 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 62 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-30)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-04)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-02)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 64 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-01)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 68 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 91 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 95 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 96 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 105 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 119 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 28 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 126 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 126 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 173 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 175 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 174 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 175 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 176 ms

odds player timeline (pa)failed 503 · 178 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 793 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1178 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2852 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 39 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 107 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 108 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (ra)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pr)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 176 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2416 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2427 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.