WNBA · Oct 9 gameAll props Full sheet

Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty

FinalATL 85 – NYL 83Page updated 13:56 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 9 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

9Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left leg

Maley, Fauthoux, Carrera have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Angel ReeseOver 11.5 rebounds

LostActual 9

Posted odds2.46Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Angel’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.46. Last price before tip: 2.05.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 1.90 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Breanna StewartOver 24.5 points

WonActual 26

Posted odds2.44

Pauline AstierOver 5.5 points

LostActual 0

Posted odds2.30

Breanna StewartUnder 11.5 rebounds + assists

WonActual 10

Posted odds2.27

Naz HillmonUnder 13.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 7

Posted odds2.25

Rhyne HowardUnder 26.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 23

Posted odds2.17

Pauline AstierUnder 3.5 rebounds + assists

WonActual 0

Posted odds2.14

Pauline AstierUnder 9.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 0

Posted odds1.94

Jonquel JonesOver 1.5 3-pointers

WonActual 2

Posted odds1.81

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left leg

Players and minutes23 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 23 rostered players. 9 published picks use separate saved records.

Atlanta Dream

11 players · no line in this feed

Rhyne Howard37 min · source estimate

Jordin Canada35 min · source estimate

Angel Reese34 min · source estimate

Naz Hillmon32 min · source estimate

DeWanna Bonner31 min · source estimate

Isobel Borlase14 min · source estimate

Te-Hina Paopao10 min · source estimate

Madina Okot4 min · source estimate

Sika Kone2 min · source estimate

Shatori Walker-Kimbrough1 min · source estimate

Allisha GrayOut · Left Hand

New York Liberty

12 players · no line in this feed

Breanna Stewart32 min · source estimate

Jonquel Jones29 min · source estimate

Sabrina Ionescu29 min · source estimate

Leonie Fiebich24 min · source estimate

Pauline Astier23 min · source estimate

Rebecca Allen23 min · source estimate

Marine Johannes14 min · source estimate

Han Xu13 min · source estimate

Rebekah Gardner10 min · source estimate

Anneli Maley1 min · source estimate

Marine Fauthoux1 min · source estimate

Raquel Carrera1 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 13:56 UTC

Who is out

Balogun · did not play last game

Scott · did not play last game

Allen · did not play last game

Gardner · did not play last game

Gray · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 19:00 UTC) · 30, 22 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · did not play last game

Okot · did not play last game

Villa · did not play last game

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left leg

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Maley, Fauthoux, Carrera have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

ATL had 15 days off before this game · NYL had 37 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 9 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Balogun out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Scott out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Allen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Gardner out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Gray out (Sat 19:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: B. Jones (ATL) out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Okot out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Villa out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

7 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 7 of 9 picks won7 won, 2 lost · +6.03 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.4% higher than the last before the start · 10 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

NYL vs ATL · last 24 games · NYL leads · NYL record 14–10 · average score 85.3–81.8 · NYL has won by 3.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Oct · ATL 85 at NYL 83NYL lost

7 Oct · NYL 98 at ATL 101NYL lost

4 Oct · NYL 82 at ATL 92NYL lost

23 Sep · ATL 83 at NYL 65NYL lost

21 Sep · ATL 95 at NYL 84NYL lost

11 Jun · NYL 104 at ATL 90NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 3, expected total 172.5 (Thu 13:46 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 169.5 (Fri 23:29 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 10

Breanna Stewart · O 24.5 points+144value_edge_pct +19.67 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Naz Hillmon · U 13.5 pra+125value_edge_pct +12.51 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Breanna Stewart · U 11.5 ra+127value_edge_pct +11.31 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Angel Reese · O 11.5 rebounds+146value_edge_pct +11.17 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Pauline Astier · O 5.5 points+130value_edge_pct +8.08 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Rhyne Howard · U 26.5 pra+117value_edge_pct +8.00 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Pauline Astier · U 3.5 ra+114value_edge_pct +7.52 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Jonquel Jones · O 1.5 threes−123value_edge_pct +7.43 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Pauline Astier · O 3.5 ra+100value_edge_pct +6.09 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Pauline Astier · U 9.5 pra−106value_edge_pct +5.32 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 10

Pauline Astier Under 9.5 PRAWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −128 · CLV +4.7¢ · bet_clv:2221971 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.2% · actual 0 · 8.3 min · bench · excused

Pauline Astier Under 3.5 RAWIN +1.14ubet +114 → close +104 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:2220329 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 0 · 8.3 min · bench · excused

Breanna Stewart Over 24.5 PTSWIN +1.44ubet +144 → close +102 · CLV +8.5¢ · bet_clv:2220328 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.0% · actual 26 · 39.1 min · started

Breanna Stewart Under 11.5 RAWIN +1.27ubet +127 → close −106 · CLV +7.4¢ · bet_clv:2220327 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.0% · actual 10 · 39.1 min · started

Naz Hillmon Under 13.5 PRAWIN +1.25ubet +125 → close −113 · CLV +8.6¢ · bet_clv:2224410 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · actual 7 · 31.8 min · started

Rhyne Howard Under 26.5 PRAWIN +1.17ubet +117 → close −110 · CLV +6.3¢ · bet_clv:2221972 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · actual 23 · 38.3 min · started

Angel Reese Over 11.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +146 → close +105 · CLV +8.1¢ · bet_clv:2224407 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 9 · 37.5 min · started

Jonquel Jones Over 1.5 3PMWIN +0.81ubet −123 → close −160 · CLV +6.4¢ · bet_clv:2221969 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 2 · 38.5 min · started

Pauline Astier Over 3.5 RALOSS −1.00ubet +100 → close −138 · CLV +8.0¢ · bet_clv:2221970 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.0% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 0 · 8.3 min · bench · excusedAstier saw minimal court time (8 min) with just 12% usage, providing no opportunity to accumulate assists when the bet required 4+. She recorded no offensive contributions and finished with a team-worst -9 rating, likely limiting her role for the remainder of the game.

Pauline Astier Over 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 → close +106 · CLV +5.1¢ · bet_clv:2220330 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.0% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 0 · 8.3 min · bench · excusedAstier saw just 8 minutes of action with minimal involvement (12% usage), going 0-1 from the field with no free-throw attempts, leaving her well short of the 5.5-point line. Limited playing time and negligible offensive opportunities made it impossible for her to reach the over threshold.

Data fetches · 40

sds games/date (2026-10-08)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-05)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-06)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-03)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 15 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-07)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-04)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-01)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-02)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-30)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 23 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 25 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 102 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 107 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 88 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 89 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 91 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 91 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 92 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 93 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 93 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 94 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 95 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 119 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 874 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 927 ms

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