WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 3 · ATL leads 2–0updated 14:06 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

No game odds posted yet

ATL 85 – NYL 83

Final · 7 of 9 picks won

9 picks checked: 7 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, NYL = New York Liberty.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

A. Reese · Over 11.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.46 · last price before start 2.05Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.46 · Our price was 8.1% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.90 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

B. Stewart · Over 24.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.44 · last price before start 2.02Won +1.44 per 1 staked

P. Astier · Over 5.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.30 · last price before start 2.06Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

B. Stewart · Under 11.5 rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.27 · last price before start 1.94Won +1.27 per 1 staked

N. Hillmon · Under 13.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.25 · last price before start 1.88Won +1.25 per 1 staked

R. Howard · Under 26.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.17 · last price before start 1.91Won +1.17 per 1 staked

P. Astier · Under 3.5 rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.14 · last price before start 2.04Won +1.14 per 1 staked

P. Astier · Under 9.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.78Won +0.94 per 1 staked

J. Jones · Over 1.5 3-pointersWonPosted at 1.81 · last price before start 1.63Won +0.81 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 23 rostered players. 9 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying NYL

11 players have no line from any bookmaker: Howard (37 expected minutes) · Canada (35 min) · +9 more

New York Libertyplaying ATL

12 players have no line from any bookmaker: Stewart (32 expected minutes) · Jones (29 min) · +10 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 14:06 UTC

Who is out

Balogun · did not play last game

Scott · did not play last game

Allen · did not play last game

Gardner · did not play last game

Gray · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 19:00 UTC) · 30, 22 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · did not play last game

Okot · did not play last game

Villa · did not play last game

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left leg

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 3 players (Carrera, Maley, Fauthoux) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

ATL had 15 days off before this game · NYL had 37 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 9 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Balogun out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Scott out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Allen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Gardner out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Gray out (Sat 19:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: B. Jones (ATL) out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Okot out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Villa out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

7 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 7 of 9 picks won7 won, 2 lost · +6.03 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.4% higher than the last before the start · 10 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs ATL · last 24 games · NYL leads · NYL record 14–10 · average score 85.3–81.8 · NYL has won by 3.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Oct · ATL 85 at NYL 83NYL lost

7 Oct · NYL 98 at ATL 101NYL lost

4 Oct · NYL 82 at ATL 92NYL lost

23 Sep · ATL 83 at NYL 65NYL lost

21 Sep · ATL 95 at NYL 84NYL lost

11 Jun · NYL 104 at ATL 90NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 3, expected total 172.5 (Thu 13:46 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 169.5 (Fri 23:29 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 10

Breanna Stewart · O 24.5 points+144value_edge_pct +19.67 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Naz Hillmon · U 13.5 pra+125value_edge_pct +12.51 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Breanna Stewart · U 11.5 ra+127value_edge_pct +11.31 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Angel Reese · O 11.5 rebounds+146value_edge_pct +11.17 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Pauline Astier · O 5.5 points+130value_edge_pct +8.08 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Rhyne Howard · U 26.5 pra+117value_edge_pct +8.00 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Pauline Astier · U 3.5 ra+114value_edge_pct +7.52 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Jonquel Jones · O 1.5 threes−123value_edge_pct +7.43 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Pauline Astier · O 3.5 ra+100value_edge_pct +6.09 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Pauline Astier · U 9.5 pra−106value_edge_pct +5.32 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 10

Pauline Astier Under 9.5 PRAWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −128 · CLV +4.7¢ · bet_clv:2221971 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.2% · actual 0 · 8.3 min · bench · excused

Pauline Astier Under 3.5 RAWIN +1.14ubet +114 → close +104 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:2220329 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 0 · 8.3 min · bench · excused

Breanna Stewart Over 24.5 PTSWIN +1.44ubet +144 → close +102 · CLV +8.5¢ · bet_clv:2220328 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.0% · actual 26 · 39.1 min · started

Breanna Stewart Under 11.5 RAWIN +1.27ubet +127 → close −106 · CLV +7.4¢ · bet_clv:2220327 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.0% · actual 10 · 39.1 min · started

Naz Hillmon Under 13.5 PRAWIN +1.25ubet +125 → close −113 · CLV +8.6¢ · bet_clv:2224410 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · actual 7 · 31.8 min · started

Rhyne Howard Under 26.5 PRAWIN +1.17ubet +117 → close −110 · CLV +6.3¢ · bet_clv:2221972 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · actual 23 · 38.3 min · started

Angel Reese Over 11.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +146 → close +105 · CLV +8.1¢ · bet_clv:2224407 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 9 · 37.5 min · started

Jonquel Jones Over 1.5 3PMWIN +0.81ubet −123 → close −160 · CLV +6.4¢ · bet_clv:2221969 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 2 · 38.5 min · started

Pauline Astier Over 3.5 RALOSS −1.00ubet +100 → close −138 · CLV +8.0¢ · bet_clv:2221970 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.0% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 0 · 8.3 min · bench · excusedAstier saw minimal court time (8 min) with just 12% usage, providing no opportunity to accumulate assists when the bet required 4+. She recorded no offensive contributions and finished with a team-worst -9 rating, likely limiting her role for the remainder of the game.

Pauline Astier Over 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 → close +106 · CLV +5.1¢ · bet_clv:2220330 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.0% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 0 · 8.3 min · bench · excusedAstier saw just 8 minutes of action with minimal involvement (12% usage), going 0-1 from the field with no free-throw attempts, leaving her well short of the 5.5-point line. Limited playing time and negligible offensive opportunities made it impossible for her to reach the over threshold.

Data fetches · 40

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-08)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-05)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-03)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-06)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 23 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-07)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 33 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-02)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-01)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-04)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-30)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 36 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 40 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 42 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 44 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 57 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 29 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 79 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 124 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 124 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 125 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 125 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 126 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 127 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 127 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 128 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 170 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.