WNBA · Scheduled · Playoffs round 3, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 06:11 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries · starts Sat 19:30 UTC

GSV expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 153.5 points · odds to win: ATL 2.10, GSV 1.71

Game odds from 12 bookmakers, 05:30 UTC

Picks not posted yet

Picks are posted before each game. 79 player lines are already posted; the players and risks below are current.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying GSV

Angel Reese · minutes unknown

assists 2.5

Jordin Canada · minutes unknown

points 11.5

Naz Hillmon · minutes unknown

points 6.5

Rhyne Howard · minutes unknown

points 16.5

Allisha Gray · Out · left hand

points 15.5 · bookmakers usually void this line and return the stake if Gray does not play

Golden State Valkyriesplaying ATL

Cecilia Zandalasini · minutes unknown

points 6.5

Gabby Williams · minutes unknown

points 18.5

Kayla Thornton · minutes unknown

points 6.5

Kiah Stokes · minutes unknown

points 2.5

Veronica Burton · minutes unknown

assists 4.5

Gameplay model · research only

What could each player produce?

Conditional projections—not betting recommendations. Expected lineups and uncertain availability are assumptions; official updates can change the slate.

Reading the same game evidence for every player. The rest of this page is ready to use.

Compare captured models and outcomes →

What could go wrong

updated 06:11 UTC

Who is out

Out Gray · left hand · ATL

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

GSV has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 105 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your prediction

closes at game start, Sat 19:30 UTC

No predictions yetYour record: 0 won, 0 lost

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs ATL · last 6 games · GSV leads · GSV record 4–2 · average score 77.3–78.0 · GSV has lost by 0.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

4 Jul · GSV 88 at ATL 83GSV won

26 Jun · ATL 75 at GSV 78GSV won

24 Jun · ATL 66 at GSV 77GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up84.3 points · 31.7 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.6% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 15.6 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.7 points · 32.3 rebounds · 18.0 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.5% of shots · 33.1% from three-point range · 13.4 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 84.3 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.2−2.8 vs average

GSV gives up 75.7 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

1xBet first had GSV expected to win by 2.5, expected total 153.5 (04:24 UTC) and had not changed it by 05:30 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-13)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-12)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-15)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-14)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-16)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-11)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-08)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-10)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-07)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-03)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-09)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-05)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-04)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/date (2026-10-06)ok 200 · 33 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 34 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 53 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 55 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 126 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 178 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 602 ms

grading verdict/cardok · 960 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1074 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 115 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.