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Aari McDonald over 6.5 points

She has cleared 6.5 in 75 of 113 games — 66.4%. That rate needs -198 to break even, and no book in our ledger has priced it.

—

Tonight

THU · OCT 1
NYL @ MIN7:00 PM ETbench · 2 projected minutes
OutAnastasiia Olairi KosuRight Foot· report Tue Sep 29
GAMES SHE PLAYED 10+ MIN · 20263 games · 18.5 min · 8.7 points

Tonight's projection is 2 minutes. These games were picked after the fact — by the minutes she ended up playing, which no projection can promise — so they keep her full nights and drop the ones cut short. Averages only; not a rate to read against a line or a price.

WITHOUT KOSU5 games · 12.5 min · 6.0 points · 3/5 over 6.5with her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

01

Distribution

113 games · hover a bucket
UNDER · 38OVER · 75  ·  filled bars clear the line
02

Recent games

points · line 6.5 · hover a bar
2024-07-09— 5-game mean2026-09-29 · newest
03

Recent form

70.0%7/10 · last 10
2025-07-30 · 27 points · OVER
27
2025-08-01 · 15 points · OVER
15
2025-08-03 · 9 points · OVER
9
2025-08-05 · 15 points · OVER
15
2025-08-07 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-09-20 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-09-22 · 10 points · OVER
10
2026-09-24 · 8 points · OVER
8
2026-09-27 · 0 points · UNDER
0
2026-09-29 · 8 points · OVER
8

A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.

04

Market history

No book in our ledger has priced this exact line. Our books publish eight WNBA markets, so a threshold outside those has a rate but no price to check it against.

05

Game log

25 of 113 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 6.5
2026-09-29PLAYOFF R1 G2
NYL
AWAY
14.3MIN
8POINTS
0 · 3 · 3-5
OVER
FG
3-5
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
80.0
USG%
16.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
11
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
NYL
HOME
2.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
UNDER
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
23.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2026-09-24
IND
HOME
19.6MIN
8POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-8
OVER
FG
2-8
3PT
2-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
45.0
USG%
20.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
9
2026-09-22
IND
AWAY
21.5MIN
10POINTS
2 · 5 · 2-9
OVER
FG
2-9
3PT
1-3
FT
5-6
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
43.0
USG%
26.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
17
2026-09-20
CON
AWAY
4.9MIN
4POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
UNDER
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
69.4
USG%
42.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
4
2025-08-07
PHO
AWAY
23.8MIN
4POINTS
2 · 3 · 2-5
UNDER
FG
2-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
34.0
USG%
14.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-15
PRA
9
2025-08-05
LAS
AWAY
29.9MIN
15POINTS
5 · 6 · 6-13
OVER
FG
6-13
3PT
3-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
57.7
USG%
21.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+1
PRA
26
2025-08-03
SEA
AWAY
32.9MIN
9POINTS
4 · 9 · 4-10
OVER
FG
4-10
3PT
0-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
43.1
USG%
19.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
+9
PRA
22
2025-08-01
DAL
AWAY
29.1MIN
15POINTS
4 · 6 · 4-10
OVER
FG
4-10
3PT
4-6
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
63.8
USG%
25.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
6
PF
2
+/−
+13
PRA
25
2025-07-30
PHO
HOME
31.4MIN
27POINTS
0 · 4 · 7-11
OVER
FG
7-11
3PT
3-4
FT
10-10
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
87.7
USG%
26.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
+3
PRA
31
2025-07-27
CHI
AWAY
23.5MIN
10POINTS
2 · 4 · 4-8
OVER
FG
4-8
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
56.3
USG%
24.9
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
16
2025-07-24
LVA
HOME
22.4MIN
9POINTS
2 · 4 · 3-4
OVER
FG
3-4
3PT
3-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
112.5
USG%
13.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
+13
PRA
15
2025-07-22
NYL
AWAY
31.3MIN
5POINTS
4 · 6 · 2-8
UNDER
FG
2-8
3PT
0-4
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
29.6
USG%
16.0
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
15
2025-07-16
NYL
AWAY
28.5MIN
10POINTS
1 · 5 · 4-9
OVER
FG
4-9
3PT
2-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
55.6
USG%
17.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-14
PRA
16
2025-07-15
CON
AWAY
9.7MIN
2POINTS
0 · 3 · 0-1
UNDER
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
53.2
USG%
19.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
5
2025-07-13
DAL
HOME
20.4MIN
5POINTS
5 · 6 · 2-7
UNDER
FG
2-7
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
35.7
USG%
14.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+10
PRA
16
2025-07-11
ATL
HOME
25.1MIN
6POINTS
1 · 3 · 3-4
UNDER
FG
3-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
8.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+24
PRA
10
2025-07-09
GSV
HOME
27.3MIN
7POINTS
1 · 4 · 2-9
OVER
FG
2-9
3PT
1-7
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
35.4
USG%
19.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-20
PRA
12
2025-07-05
LAS
HOME
29.6MIN
4POINTS
1 · 8 · 2-9
UNDER
FG
2-9
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
22.2
USG%
15.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
6
+/−
-4
PRA
13
2025-07-03
LVA
HOME
30.8MIN
8POINTS
7 · 7 · 3-8
OVER
FG
3-8
3PT
0-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
45.0
USG%
20.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
+26
PRA
22
2025-06-27
DAL
AWAY
29.8MIN
13POINTS
2 · 6 · 6-9
OVER
FG
6-9
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
65.8
USG%
18.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+5
PRA
21
2025-06-26
LAS
HOME
23.6MIN
14POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-8
OVER
FG
3-8
3PT
1-4
FT
7-10
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
56.5
USG%
23.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-8
PRA
17
2025-06-10
ATL
AWAY
24.0MIN
14POINTS
1 · 2 · 3-6
OVER
FG
3-6
3PT
2-5
FT
6-8
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
73.5
USG%
27.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
17
2025-06-07
CHI
AWAY
25.0MIN
12POINTS
2 · 2 · 4-8
OVER
FG
4-8
3PT
3-6
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
71.1
USG%
18.7
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+19
PRA
16
2025-06-03
WAS
HOME
27.4MIN
7POINTS
1 · 5 · 2-7
OVER
FG
2-7
3PT
1-5
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
40.0
USG%
16.6
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
13
showing 25 of 113 — every rate above is computed over all 113