Maria Conde over 2.5 points
She has cleared 2.5 in 29 of 35 games — 82.9%. That rate needs -484 to break even, and no book in our ledger has priced it.
—
Tonight
THU · SEP 24Questionable She is Questionable tonight (Back).
TOR @ CON7:00 PM ETprojected starter · 18 projected minutes
OutAneesah MorrowLeft Knee
OutBrittney SykesLeft Foot
OutMarina MabreyRight Adductor
OutTemi FagbenlePersonal Reasons
AT 15+ MINUTES · 202633 games · 27.1 min · 8.9 points · 28/33 over 2.5 (85%)
Tonight's projection is 18 minutes. This is her season at that workload.
WITHOUT MORROW31 games · 26.1 min · 8.2 points · 26/31 over 2.5with her (n=4): 28.5 min · 11.0 points · 75%with her →
WITHOUT SYKES20 games · 28.9 min · 9.4 points · 17/20 over 2.5with her (n=15): 23.2 min · 7.3 points · 80%with her →
WITHOUT MABREY5 games · 25.4 min · 5.8 points · 4/5 over 2.5with her (n=30): 26.6 min · 9.0 points · 83%with her →
Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.
01
Distribution
35 games · hover a bucket0–2 points · 2 games · 5.7% · under2
2–4 points · 6 games · 17.1% · under6
4–6 points · 5 games · 14.3% · over5
6–8 points · 4 games · 11.4% · over4
8–10 points · 3 games · 8.6% · over3
10–12 points · 2 games · 5.7% · over2
12–14 points · 7 games · 20.0% · over7
14–16 points · 2 games · 5.7% · over2
16–18 points · 2 games · 5.7% · over2
18–20 points · 1 game · 2.9% · over1
20–22 points · 1 game · 2.9% · over1
2.5
UNDER · 6OVER · 29 · filled bars clear the line
02
Recent games
points · line 2.5 · hover a bar2026-05-21 · MIN · 3 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-05-23 · POR · 8 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-05-27 · CHI · 12 points · +9.5 vs line
2026-05-30 · SEA · 13 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-06-03 · NYL · 7 points · +4.5 vs line
2026-06-07 · CHI · 5 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-06-10 · CON · 0 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-06-12 · WAS · 7 points · +4.5 vs line
2026-06-14 · ATL · 12 points · +9.5 vs line
2026-06-16 · IND · 12 points · +9.5 vs line
2026-06-19 · CON · 19 points · +16.5 vs line
2026-06-22 · ATL · 8 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-06-25 · LAS · 13 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-06-27 · PHO · 10 points · +7.5 vs line
2026-07-05 · DAL · 3 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-07-08 · GSV · 9 points · +6.5 vs line
2026-07-10 · DAL · 12 points · +9.5 vs line
2026-07-12 · NYL · 15 points · +12.5 vs line
2026-07-14 · WAS · 2 points · −0.5 vs line
2026-07-17 · ATL · 13 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-07-20 · LVA · 15 points · +12.5 vs line
2026-07-28 · MIN · 20 points · +17.5 vs line
2026-07-30 · MIN · 5 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-08-02 · GSV · 10 points · +7.5 vs line
2026-08-04 · GSV · 17 points · +14.5 vs line
2026-08-06 · POR · 6 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-08-10 · ATL · 2 points · −0.5 vs line
2026-08-26 · SEA · 4 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-09-20 · NYL · 0 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-09-22 · CHI · 5 points · +2.5 vs line
2.5
2026-05-21— 5-game mean2026-09-22 · newest
03
Recent form
80.0%8/10 · last 10
2026-07-20 · 15 points · OVER
15
2026-07-28 · 20 points · OVER
20
2026-07-30 · 5 points · OVER
5
2026-08-02 · 10 points · OVER
10
2026-08-04 · 17 points · OVER
17
2026-08-06 · 6 points · OVER
6
2026-08-10 · 2 points · UNDER
2
2026-08-26 · 4 points · OVER
4
2026-09-20 · 0 points · UNDER
0
2026-09-22 · 5 points · OVER
5
A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.
04
Market history
No book in our ledger has priced this exact line. Our books publish eight WNBA markets, so a threshold outside those has a rate but no price to check it against.
05
Game log
25 of 35 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.5
2026-09-22CHIAWAY13.9MIN5POINTS3 · 0 · 2-5OVER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 46.0
- USG%
- 16.2
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 8
2026-09-20NYLHOME22.3MIN0POINTS2 · 3 · 0-8UNDER
- FG
- 0-8
- 3PT
- 0-5
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 21.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -24
- PRA
- 5
2026-08-26SEAAWAY19.8MIN4POINTS4 · 4 · 2-5OVER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 40.0
- USG%
- 18.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 12
2026-08-10ATLAWAY27.9MIN2POINTS1 · 3 · 1-4UNDER
- FG
- 1-4
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 25.0
- USG%
- 8.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -17
- PRA
- 6
2026-08-06PORAWAY28.7MIN6POINTS6 · 2 · 3-9OVER
- FG
- 3-9
- 3PT
- 0-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/5
- TS%
- 33.3
- USG%
- 14.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -4
- PRA
- 14
2026-08-04GSVAWAY30.1MIN17POINTS6 · 4 · 6-12OVER
- FG
- 6-12
- 3PT
- 5-10
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/5
- TS%
- 70.8
- USG%
- 24.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -11
- PRA
- 27
2026-08-02GSVAWAY33.7MIN10POINTS5 · 5 · 5-14OVER
- FG
- 5-14
- 3PT
- 0-7
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/4
- TS%
- 35.7
- USG%
- 21.8
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 20
2026-07-30MINHOME27.6MIN5POINTS2 · 2 · 2-6OVER
- FG
- 2-6
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 41.7
- USG%
- 11.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -13
- PRA
- 9
2026-07-28MINAWAY29.9MIN20POINTS10 · 1 · 7-16OVER
- FG
- 7-16
- 3PT
- 4-9
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 3/7
- TS%
- 59.2
- USG%
- 29.2
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -11
- PRA
- 31
2026-07-20LVAHOME27.6MIN15POINTS8 · 4 · 6-12OVER
- FG
- 6-12
- 3PT
- 3-8
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 2/6
- TS%
- 62.5
- USG%
- 18.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -7
- PRA
- 27
2026-07-17ATLHOME30.7MIN13POINTS4 · 5 · 2-8OVER
- FG
- 2-8
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 8-9
- OREB/DREB
- 2/2
- TS%
- 54.3
- USG%
- 17.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -22
- PRA
- 22
2026-07-14WASHOME30.0MIN2POINTS4 · 3 · 1-5UNDER
- FG
- 1-5
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 20.0
- USG%
- 10.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -10
- PRA
- 9
2026-07-12NYLHOME33.5MIN15POINTS2 · 2 · 5-11OVER
- FG
- 5-11
- 3PT
- 3-7
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 63.1
- USG%
- 15.9
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +14
- PRA
- 19
2026-07-10DALHOME34.8MIN12POINTS3 · 9 · 5-9OVER
- FG
- 5-9
- 3PT
- 2-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 66.7
- USG%
- 16.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -18
- PRA
- 24
2026-07-08GSVHOME35.4MIN9POINTS3 · 1 · 3-8OVER
- FG
- 3-8
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 50.7
- USG%
- 16.4
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -5
- PRA
- 13
2026-07-05DALHOME28.5MIN3POINTS10 · 3 · 1-10OVER
- FG
- 1-10
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 4/6
- TS%
- 15.0
- USG%
- 20.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 16
2026-06-27PHOHOME37.2MIN10POINTS6 · 6 · 4-14OVER
- FG
- 4-14
- 3PT
- 1-8
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/6
- TS%
- 34.6
- USG%
- 21.0
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -6
- PRA
- 22
2026-06-25LASHOME28.9MIN13POINTS7 · 0 · 4-8OVER
- FG
- 4-8
- 3PT
- 3-5
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/7
- TS%
- 73.2
- USG%
- 14.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +27
- PRA
- 20
2026-06-22ATLAWAY29.0MIN8POINTS4 · 2 · 3-6OVER
- FG
- 3-6
- 3PT
- 2-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 66.7
- USG%
- 13.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -20
- PRA
- 14
2026-06-19CONAWAY27.5MIN19POINTS6 · 3 · 5-12OVER
- FG
- 5-12
- 3PT
- 5-8
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 2/4
- TS%
- 69.0
- USG%
- 21.1
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 28
2026-06-16INDAWAY31.3MIN12POINTS4 · 5 · 4-8OVER
- FG
- 4-8
- 3PT
- 3-4
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 71.1
- USG%
- 12.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -22
- PRA
- 21
2026-06-14ATLHOME24.7MIN12POINTS3 · 4 · 4-9OVER
- FG
- 4-9
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 3-5
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 53.6
- USG%
- 24.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 19
2026-06-12WASAWAY21.8MIN7POINTS6 · 4 · 3-7OVER
- FG
- 3-7
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/6
- TS%
- 44.4
- USG%
- 22.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 17
2026-06-10CONHOME14.6MIN0POINTS2 · 2 · 0-2UNDER
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 12.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -10
- PRA
- 4
2026-06-07CHIHOME24.3MIN5POINTS6 · 2 · 2-8OVER
- FG
- 2-8
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/5
- TS%
- 31.3
- USG%
- 15.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 13
showing 25 of 35 — every rate above is computed over all 35