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Maria Conde over 8.5 points

She has cleared 8.5 in 16 of 35 games — 45.7%. That rate needs +118 to break even and books have been paying +100.

—

Tonight

THU · SEP 24

Questionable She is Questionable tonight (Back).

TOR @ CON7:00 PM ETprojected starter · 18 projected minutes
OutAneesah MorrowLeft Knee
OutBrittney SykesLeft Foot
OutMarina MabreyRight Adductor
OutTemi FagbenlePersonal Reasons
AT 15+ MINUTES · 202633 games · 27.1 min · 8.9 points · 16/33 over 8.5 (48%)

Tonight's projection is 18 minutes. This is her season at that workload.

WITHOUT MORROW31 games · 26.1 min · 8.2 points · 14/31 over 8.5with her (n=4): 28.5 min · 11.0 points · 50%with her →
WITHOUT SYKES20 games · 28.9 min · 9.4 points · 11/20 over 8.5with her (n=15): 23.2 min · 7.3 points · 33%with her →
WITHOUT MABREY5 games · 25.4 min · 5.8 points · 2/5 over 8.5with her (n=30): 26.6 min · 9.0 points · 47%with her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

01

Distribution

35 games · hover a bucket
UNDER · 19OVER · 16  ·  filled bars clear the line
02

Recent games

points · line 8.5 · hover a bar
2026-05-21— 5-game mean2026-09-22 · newest
03

Recent form

40.0%4/10 · last 10
2026-07-20 · 15 points · OVER
15
2026-07-28 · 20 points · OVER
20
2026-07-30 · 5 points · UNDER
5
2026-08-02 · 10 points · OVER
10
2026-08-04 · 17 points · OVER
17
2026-08-06 · 6 points · UNDER
6
2026-08-10 · 2 points · UNDER
2
2026-08-26 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-09-20 · 0 points · UNDER
0
2026-09-22 · 5 points · UNDER
5

A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.

04

Market history

median · 8 postings8.5+100
best offered8.5+100
worst offered8.5+100
our break-even8.5+118

Median +100 across 8 postings over 1 games. Her rate has never been worth that price.

05

Game log

25 of 35 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 8.5
2026-09-22
CHI
AWAY
13.9MIN
5POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-5
UNDER
FG
2-5
3PT
0-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
46.0
USG%
16.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
8
2026-09-20
NYL
HOME
22.3MIN
0POINTS
2 · 3 · 0-8
UNDER
FG
0-8
3PT
0-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
21.6
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-24
PRA
5
2026-08-26
SEA
AWAY
19.8MIN
4POINTS
4 · 4 · 2-5
UNDER
FG
2-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
40.0
USG%
18.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
12
2026-08-10
ATL
AWAY
27.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 3 · 1-4
UNDER
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
8.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
6
2026-08-06
POR
AWAY
28.7MIN
6POINTS
6 · 2 · 3-9
UNDER
FG
3-9
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
33.3
USG%
14.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
14
2026-08-04
GSV
AWAY
30.1MIN
17POINTS
6 · 4 · 6-12
OVER
FG
6-12
3PT
5-10
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
70.8
USG%
24.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
27
2026-08-02
GSV
AWAY
33.7MIN
10POINTS
5 · 5 · 5-14
OVER
FG
5-14
3PT
0-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
35.7
USG%
21.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
20
2026-07-30
MIN
HOME
27.6MIN
5POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-6
UNDER
FG
2-6
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
41.7
USG%
11.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-13
PRA
9
2026-07-28
MIN
AWAY
29.9MIN
20POINTS
10 · 1 · 7-16
OVER
FG
7-16
3PT
4-9
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/7
TS%
59.2
USG%
29.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
-11
PRA
31
2026-07-20
LVA
HOME
27.6MIN
15POINTS
8 · 4 · 6-12
OVER
FG
6-12
3PT
3-8
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/6
TS%
62.5
USG%
18.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
27
2026-07-17
ATL
HOME
30.7MIN
13POINTS
4 · 5 · 2-8
OVER
FG
2-8
3PT
1-5
FT
8-9
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
54.3
USG%
17.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-22
PRA
22
2026-07-14
WAS
HOME
30.0MIN
2POINTS
4 · 3 · 1-5
UNDER
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
20.0
USG%
10.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-10
PRA
9
2026-07-12
NYL
HOME
33.5MIN
15POINTS
2 · 2 · 5-11
OVER
FG
5-11
3PT
3-7
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
63.1
USG%
15.9
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+14
PRA
19
2026-07-10
DAL
HOME
34.8MIN
12POINTS
3 · 9 · 5-9
OVER
FG
5-9
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
16.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-18
PRA
24
2026-07-08
GSV
HOME
35.4MIN
9POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-8
OVER
FG
3-8
3PT
1-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
50.7
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
13
2026-07-05
DAL
HOME
28.5MIN
3POINTS
10 · 3 · 1-10
UNDER
FG
1-10
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
4/6
TS%
15.0
USG%
20.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
16
2026-06-27
PHO
HOME
37.2MIN
10POINTS
6 · 6 · 4-14
OVER
FG
4-14
3PT
1-8
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
34.6
USG%
21.0
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
22
2026-06-25
LAS
HOME
28.9MIN
13POINTS
7 · 0 · 4-8
OVER
FG
4-8
3PT
3-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/7
TS%
73.2
USG%
14.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+27
PRA
20
2026-06-22
ATL
AWAY
29.0MIN
8POINTS
4 · 2 · 3-6
UNDER
FG
3-6
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
13.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-20
PRA
14
2026-06-19
CON
AWAY
27.5MIN
19POINTS
6 · 3 · 5-12
OVER
FG
5-12
3PT
5-8
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
69.0
USG%
21.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
28
2026-06-16
IND
AWAY
31.3MIN
12POINTS
4 · 5 · 4-8
OVER
FG
4-8
3PT
3-4
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
71.1
USG%
12.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-22
PRA
21
2026-06-14
ATL
HOME
24.7MIN
12POINTS
3 · 4 · 4-9
OVER
FG
4-9
3PT
1-2
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
53.6
USG%
24.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-12
PRA
19
2026-06-12
WAS
AWAY
21.8MIN
7POINTS
6 · 4 · 3-7
UNDER
FG
3-7
3PT
0-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
44.4
USG%
22.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+7
PRA
17
2026-06-10
CON
HOME
14.6MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-2
UNDER
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.5
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-10
PRA
4
2026-06-07
CHI
HOME
24.3MIN
5POINTS
6 · 2 · 2-8
UNDER
FG
2-8
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
31.3
USG%
15.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
13
showing 25 of 35 — every rate above is computed over all 35