Maria Conde over 9.5 points
She has cleared 9.5 in 15 of 35 games — 42.9%. That rate needs +133 to break even and books have been paying -108.
—
Tonight
THU · SEP 24Questionable She is Questionable tonight (Back).
TOR @ CON7:00 PM ETprojected starter · 18 projected minutes
OutAneesah MorrowLeft Knee
OutBrittney SykesLeft Foot
OutMarina MabreyRight Adductor
OutTemi FagbenlePersonal Reasons
AT 15+ MINUTES · 202633 games · 27.1 min · 8.9 points · 15/33 over 9.5 (45%)
Tonight's projection is 18 minutes. This is her season at that workload.
WITHOUT MORROW31 games · 26.1 min · 8.2 points · 13/31 over 9.5with her (n=4): 28.5 min · 11.0 points · 50%with her →
WITHOUT SYKES20 games · 28.9 min · 9.4 points · 10/20 over 9.5with her (n=15): 23.2 min · 7.3 points · 33%with her →
WITHOUT MABREY5 games · 25.4 min · 5.8 points · 2/5 over 9.5with her (n=30): 26.6 min · 9.0 points · 43%with her →
Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.
01
Distribution
35 games · hover a bucket0–2 points · 2 games · 5.7% · under2
2–4 points · 6 games · 17.1% · under6
4–6 points · 5 games · 14.3% · under5
6–8 points · 4 games · 11.4% · under4
8–10 points · 3 games · 8.6% · under3
10–12 points · 2 games · 5.7% · over2
12–14 points · 7 games · 20.0% · over7
14–16 points · 2 games · 5.7% · over2
16–18 points · 2 games · 5.7% · over2
18–20 points · 1 game · 2.9% · over1
20–22 points · 1 game · 2.9% · over1
9.5
UNDER · 20OVER · 15 · filled bars clear the line
02
Recent games
points · line 9.5 · hover a bar2026-05-21 · MIN · 3 points · −6.5 vs line
2026-05-23 · POR · 8 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-05-27 · CHI · 12 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-05-30 · SEA · 13 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-06-03 · NYL · 7 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-06-07 · CHI · 5 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-06-10 · CON · 0 points · −9.5 vs line
2026-06-12 · WAS · 7 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-06-14 · ATL · 12 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-06-16 · IND · 12 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-06-19 · CON · 19 points · +9.5 vs line
2026-06-22 · ATL · 8 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-06-25 · LAS · 13 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-06-27 · PHO · 10 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-07-05 · DAL · 3 points · −6.5 vs line
2026-07-08 · GSV · 9 points · −0.5 vs line
2026-07-10 · DAL · 12 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-07-12 · NYL · 15 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-07-14 · WAS · 2 points · −7.5 vs line
2026-07-17 · ATL · 13 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-07-20 · LVA · 15 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-07-28 · MIN · 20 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-07-30 · MIN · 5 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-08-02 · GSV · 10 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-08-04 · GSV · 17 points · +7.5 vs line
2026-08-06 · POR · 6 points · −3.5 vs line
2026-08-10 · ATL · 2 points · −7.5 vs line
2026-08-26 · SEA · 4 points · −5.5 vs line
2026-09-20 · NYL · 0 points · −9.5 vs line
2026-09-22 · CHI · 5 points · −4.5 vs line
9.5
2026-05-21— 5-game mean2026-09-22 · newest
03
Recent form
40.0%4/10 · last 10
2026-07-20 · 15 points · OVER
15
2026-07-28 · 20 points · OVER
20
2026-07-30 · 5 points · UNDER
5
2026-08-02 · 10 points · OVER
10
2026-08-04 · 17 points · OVER
17
2026-08-06 · 6 points · UNDER
6
2026-08-10 · 2 points · UNDER
2
2026-08-26 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-09-20 · 0 points · UNDER
0
2026-09-22 · 5 points · UNDER
5
A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.
04
Market history
median · 24 postings9.5-108
best offered9.5+104
worst offered9.5-128
our break-even9.5+133
Median -108 across 24 postings over 9 games. Her rate has never been worth that price.
05
Game log
25 of 35 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 9.5
2026-09-22CHIAWAY13.9MIN5POINTS3 · 0 · 2-5UNDER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 46.0
- USG%
- 16.2
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 8
2026-09-20NYLHOME22.3MIN0POINTS2 · 3 · 0-8UNDER
- FG
- 0-8
- 3PT
- 0-5
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 21.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -24
- PRA
- 5
2026-08-26SEAAWAY19.8MIN4POINTS4 · 4 · 2-5UNDER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 40.0
- USG%
- 18.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 12
2026-08-10ATLAWAY27.9MIN2POINTS1 · 3 · 1-4UNDER
- FG
- 1-4
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 25.0
- USG%
- 8.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -17
- PRA
- 6
2026-08-06PORAWAY28.7MIN6POINTS6 · 2 · 3-9UNDER
- FG
- 3-9
- 3PT
- 0-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/5
- TS%
- 33.3
- USG%
- 14.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -4
- PRA
- 14
2026-08-04GSVAWAY30.1MIN17POINTS6 · 4 · 6-12OVER
- FG
- 6-12
- 3PT
- 5-10
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/5
- TS%
- 70.8
- USG%
- 24.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -11
- PRA
- 27
2026-08-02GSVAWAY33.7MIN10POINTS5 · 5 · 5-14OVER
- FG
- 5-14
- 3PT
- 0-7
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/4
- TS%
- 35.7
- USG%
- 21.8
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 20
2026-07-30MINHOME27.6MIN5POINTS2 · 2 · 2-6UNDER
- FG
- 2-6
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 41.7
- USG%
- 11.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -13
- PRA
- 9
2026-07-28MINAWAY29.9MIN20POINTS10 · 1 · 7-16OVER
- FG
- 7-16
- 3PT
- 4-9
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 3/7
- TS%
- 59.2
- USG%
- 29.2
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -11
- PRA
- 31
2026-07-20LVAHOME27.6MIN15POINTS8 · 4 · 6-12OVER
- FG
- 6-12
- 3PT
- 3-8
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 2/6
- TS%
- 62.5
- USG%
- 18.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -7
- PRA
- 27
2026-07-17ATLHOME30.7MIN13POINTS4 · 5 · 2-8OVER
- FG
- 2-8
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 8-9
- OREB/DREB
- 2/2
- TS%
- 54.3
- USG%
- 17.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -22
- PRA
- 22
2026-07-14WASHOME30.0MIN2POINTS4 · 3 · 1-5UNDER
- FG
- 1-5
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 20.0
- USG%
- 10.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -10
- PRA
- 9
2026-07-12NYLHOME33.5MIN15POINTS2 · 2 · 5-11OVER
- FG
- 5-11
- 3PT
- 3-7
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 63.1
- USG%
- 15.9
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +14
- PRA
- 19
2026-07-10DALHOME34.8MIN12POINTS3 · 9 · 5-9OVER
- FG
- 5-9
- 3PT
- 2-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 66.7
- USG%
- 16.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -18
- PRA
- 24
2026-07-08GSVHOME35.4MIN9POINTS3 · 1 · 3-8UNDER
- FG
- 3-8
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 50.7
- USG%
- 16.4
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -5
- PRA
- 13
2026-07-05DALHOME28.5MIN3POINTS10 · 3 · 1-10UNDER
- FG
- 1-10
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 4/6
- TS%
- 15.0
- USG%
- 20.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 16
2026-06-27PHOHOME37.2MIN10POINTS6 · 6 · 4-14OVER
- FG
- 4-14
- 3PT
- 1-8
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/6
- TS%
- 34.6
- USG%
- 21.0
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -6
- PRA
- 22
2026-06-25LASHOME28.9MIN13POINTS7 · 0 · 4-8OVER
- FG
- 4-8
- 3PT
- 3-5
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/7
- TS%
- 73.2
- USG%
- 14.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +27
- PRA
- 20
2026-06-22ATLAWAY29.0MIN8POINTS4 · 2 · 3-6UNDER
- FG
- 3-6
- 3PT
- 2-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 66.7
- USG%
- 13.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -20
- PRA
- 14
2026-06-19CONAWAY27.5MIN19POINTS6 · 3 · 5-12OVER
- FG
- 5-12
- 3PT
- 5-8
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 2/4
- TS%
- 69.0
- USG%
- 21.1
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 28
2026-06-16INDAWAY31.3MIN12POINTS4 · 5 · 4-8OVER
- FG
- 4-8
- 3PT
- 3-4
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 71.1
- USG%
- 12.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -22
- PRA
- 21
2026-06-14ATLHOME24.7MIN12POINTS3 · 4 · 4-9OVER
- FG
- 4-9
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 3-5
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 53.6
- USG%
- 24.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 19
2026-06-12WASAWAY21.8MIN7POINTS6 · 4 · 3-7UNDER
- FG
- 3-7
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/6
- TS%
- 44.4
- USG%
- 22.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 17
2026-06-10CONHOME14.6MIN0POINTS2 · 2 · 0-2UNDER
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 12.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -10
- PRA
- 4
2026-06-07CHIHOME24.3MIN5POINTS6 · 2 · 2-8UNDER
- FG
- 2-8
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/5
- TS%
- 31.3
- USG%
- 15.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 13
showing 25 of 35 — every rate above is computed over all 35