← priced_lineedges · WNBA
2026-08-10
Day by day
Latest 1 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: priced_lineedges.
9–9 · 50% · −2.29u across the last 1 days
08/109–950%−2.29u2 games
TOR @ ATL3–8−5.92u
- Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 PTS22 vs 17.5paid over the fair numberHoward torched the under by draining 6-of-11 from three (54.5%), well above her typical volume and efficiency from deep, while playing all 36 minutes and maintaining elite efficiency at 66% TS despite modest 20% usage.
- Nyara Sabally Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSabally's below-the-line scoring was driven by poor shooting efficiency—she went 5-12 from the field (42%) despite 29 minutes and solid usage at 26%—and couldn't compensate with free throws, attempting only 2 all game. Her two-point performance shortfall came almost entirely from inefficient shot selection rather than playing time constraints.
- Nyara Sabally Over 13.5 PTS12 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upSabally fell just short despite solid volume, shooting 5-12 from the field for a 41.7% clip that wasn't enough to push her over 13.5 in 29 minutes of play. Her 26% usage rate and 47% true shooting kept her in the 12-point range despite the rebounding (12) and steals (4) contributions.
- Nyara Sabally Over 12.5 PTS12 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upSabally fell one point short despite solid volume, shooting just 5-12 from the field (42 FG%) and missing all four three-point attempts in 29 minutes. Her 26% usage rate and modest 47% true shooting kept her at exactly the line threshold rather than pushing past it.
- Allisha Gray Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5no clean explanationGray doubled her assist projection by operating as a primary facilitator in a 33-minute, high-efficiency outing, racking up 5 dimes on just 13% usage—a sign she was getting high-quality looks to kick out rather than hunting shots herself. The under missed because her playmaking role was elevated relative to the betting line's expectation, not due to volume or a blowout inflating numbers.
- Maria Conde Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upConde played 28 minutes but recorded just 1 rebound despite 8% usage, failing to crash the glass effectively or generate second-chance opportunities in a blowout loss (-17 +/-). Her minimal involvement in the offense and rebounding effort made the over difficult to hit even with substantial playing time.
CHI @ SEA6–1+3.64u
- Courtney Vandersloot Under 11.5 PTS13 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationVandersloot's free-throw volume was the culprit: she attempted 9 FTs (compared to just 7 field goals) and made 8 of them, accounting for 62% of her scoring and lifting her past 11.5 despite shooting just 29% from the field. Her 26 minutes and 20% usage were in line with an under-type game, but the stripe-heavy scoring path created the miss.
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.