← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-08-28
Day by day
Latest 1 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: scout_ml.
20–19 · 51% · −2.55u across the last 1 days · 2 voided, zero benchmark units
08/2820–19 ·2 void51%−2.55u4 games
POR @ ATL2–4−2.21u
- Rhyne Howard Under 26.5 PRA33 vs 26.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward's 26 points and 6 rebounds combined to 33 PRA, exceeding the 26.5 line despite modest efficiency (8-21 FG) because she logged all 38 available minutes with 27% usage, the volume alone driving her over the threshold. Her 6 three-pointers made also inflated her scoring total beyond what the under accounted for.
- Angel Reese Under 3.5 AST6 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese's playmaking load increased significantly despite moderate usage, as she logged 38 minutes and orchestrated ball movement from the post with 6 assists against an opponent defense that allowed her to operate in space. The high-volume rebounding (16 boards) positioned her as a primary facilitator on a team that needed her to generate offense, pushing her well past the 3.5 threshold.
- Jordin Canada Over 14.5 PR12 vs 14.5paid over the fair numberCanada's 12 points fell short despite efficient shooting (72% TS%) because she logged only 32 minutes and 16% usage—well below her typical offensive load—limiting her scoring opportunities even at high efficiency. The five turnovers and five personal fouls also constrained her floor time and ball-handling, preventing her from reaching the 14.5-point threshold.
- Rhyne Howard Under 22.5 PR32 vs 22.5no clean explanationHoward's 32 projected rating exceeded the 22.5 line because she logged a game-high 38 minutes with elite efficiency—57% true shooting on 27% usage—converting 6-of-13 from three while avoiding foul trouble (just 2 PF), allowing her to sustain high volume without the usual minute restrictions.
TOR @ LVA4–5 ·1 void−1.83u
- Jackie Young Under 2.5 3PM4 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberYoung shot 4-for-9 from three (44.4%), well above her season norm, and her 28% usage rate meant she got enough volume to hit multiple attempts despite limited minutes in the 26 she played. The efficient shooting night—particularly from deep—simply exceeded the expected output for an under 2.5 threes bet.
- Chelsea Gray Over 20.5 PRA18 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upGray fell just short at 18 PRA despite solid efficiency (53% TS, 4 steals), hampered by limited shot volume—her 17% usage rate and 4-9 FG attempts couldn't generate enough scoring to push over 20.5 even with her assist and steal contributions.
- Chelsea Gray Over 9.5 RA7 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's 7 rebounds fell short of the 9.5 line despite 28 minutes of run, as she recorded just 3 boards on the night—a low total that reflected limited offensive rebounding opportunities in a blowout win (+18 margin) where the team controlled the glass.
- Chelsea Gray Over 17.5 PA15 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upGray finished 2 assists shy of the over despite 28 minutes of action, hampered by low usage (17%) and inefficiency (4-9 FG, 0-3 3PT) that limited her offensive opportunities and playmaking impact.
- A'ja Wilson Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson scored efficiently from the field (10-17 FG) and the line (7-8 FT) but took only 2 three-point attempts and missed both, staying well within her volume comfort zone of attacking the paint and mid-range.
CON @ IND7–5 ·1 void+0.40u
- Caitlin Clark Under 13.5 RA17 vs 13.5no clean explanationClark's elite 79% true shooting and 34% usage rate fueled 34 points on just 19 FG attempts, generating 17 rebounds+assists well above the 13.5 line as she dominated a blowout (+32 rating) without foul trouble to limit her availability.
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 3.5 REB4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upLeger-Walker grabbed one more board than the line allowed despite modest volume, finishing with 4 rebounds in 24 minutes of a game where she was more facilitator (5 ast) than rebounder. The narrow miss came down to simple variance—she needed just one extra board to bust the under, which proved achievable even in a limited role.
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 7.5 RA9 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeger-Walker's 5 assists exceeded typical output and pushed her past 7.5 combined rebounds-assists; she operated as a secondary playmaker in 24 minutes despite modest scoring (8 pts on 3-6 FG), delivering enough offensive creation to clear the line.
- Saniya Rivers Under 6.5 RA7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upRivers exceeded the 6.5 rebounds line by just one rebound (7 total) despite shooting inefficiently (4-11 FG) and playing in negative game flow (-30 +/-), likely benefiting from extended 31-minute run in what appeared to be a competitive game that kept her on the floor for rebounding opportunities.
- Kelsey Mitchell Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell's scoring aggression (34 points on 73% TS) kept her on the floor for 31 minutes, and she naturally accumulated a few extra boards on her way to 3 rebounds—just one more than the line predicted.
WAS @ LAS7–5+1.09u
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOnyenwere drew 22 minutes but failed to box out or crash the glass, finishing with a goose egg on the boards despite shooting 6-of-6 from the line—a rare occurrence where volume and efficiency couldn't overcome zero rebounding activity. At just 16% usage, she was relegated to a catch-and-shoot role that kept her away from the rim, making the 2.5 rebound bar impossible to clear.
- Rae Burrell Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell grabbed exactly 3 rebounds in 29 minutes—just one board above the line—playing within her normal role despite solid 15-point, 58% TS efficiency that kept her engaged on the glass.
- Nneka Ogwumike Under 0.5 3PM2 vs 0.5paid over the fair numberOgwumike's efficient 11-16 shooting night included an unexpected 2-3 from three-point range, doubling the under's threshold despite her season-long perimeter role being secondary to her interior dominance. The high volume and hot shooting—particularly her 73% true shooting—meant she found opportunities beyond the arc that the under pricing didn't anticipate.
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 9.5 RA9 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upOgwumike fell one rebound short despite a dominant scoring night (24 pts on 11-16 FG), as her rebounding opportunities were limited by the team's offensive efficiency and pace in the 30-minute stint. Her 31% usage rate and role as a primary scorer left fewer possessions available for glass work compared to typical games.
- Dearica Hamby Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby came up one rebound short despite efficient scoring (4-6 FG), held back by just 24 minutes of action and low usage (16%) in a game that didn't require heavy offensive load. Her three personal fouls may have also limited her floor time and rebounding opportunities.
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