← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-09-30
Day by day
Latest 1 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: scout_ml.
19–19 · 50% · −4.02u across the last 1 days
09/3019–1950%−4.02u2 games
GSV @ DAL13–12−2.27u
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 13.5 PTS45 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upArike shot an elite 73% TS on 41% usage with 42 minutes played, going 16-18 from the free-throw line to rack up 45 points—nearly 3.3× the over/under. She was virtually unstoppable from the field (12-23 FG, 5-8 3PT) and stayed out of foul trouble with only 5 PF, allowing her to play heavy minutes in what was likely a competitive game.
- Gabby Williams Under 6.5 RA13 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberWilliams combined 6 rebounds and 7 assists to reach 13 ra, fueled by 37 minutes of run and a 36% usage rate that kept her heavily involved in both scoring (12-23 FG) and playmaking. The high volume and extended minutes were the key drivers—she needed just one more assist or rebound than the under anticipated to push past 6.5.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 6.5 RA11 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberOgunbowale's elite shooting night—12-for-23 FG and a perfect 16-for-18 from the line for 45 points—drove sky-high usage (41%) and kept her on the floor for all 42 minutes, generating 11 RA well above the 6.5 line despite modest rebound and assist totals.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 17.5 PA49 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale erupted for 45 points on elite efficiency (73% TS, 12-23 FG, 5-8 3PT, 16-18 FT) while logging 42 minutes and posting a 41% usage rate, far exceeding the point-assist assumptions baked into a 17.5 pa line. Her scoring volume and accuracy were simply too high to stay under, with free throws (16 attempts) and three-pointers accounting for 21 of her 45 points.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 1.5 3PM5 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale erupted for a season-high 45 points on elite 73% true shooting, connecting on 5-of-8 from three as the primary offensive engine in a tight contest that kept her on the floor for 42 minutes at 41% usage. The under collapsed on her red-hot shooting night and extended minutes in a game that never developed into a blowout.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 20.5 PRA56 vs 20.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale went nuclear from the field and free-throw line, shooting 12-23 FG (52%) and a perfect 16-18 FT (89%), combining for 45 points alone while staying on the court all 42 minutes without fouling out, turning a 20.5 PRA line into a 56-PRA blowout. Her elite 73% true shooting and 41% usage rate left no margin for the under to hit.
ATL @ WAS6–7−1.75u
- DeWanna Bonner Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner hit 2-of-4 from three in just 14 minutes, converting at 50% from deep despite limited run, and her elite 72% true shooting ensured efficiency on the few looks she got. The under needed her to stay cold or see reduced volume, but she made half her threes in minimal playing time.
- Angel Reese Over 27.5 PR22 vs 27.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese fell 5.5 points short despite solid efficiency (65% TS), undone by limited shot volume—her 21% usage rate and 12 total shot attempts (4-8 FG, 0-4 3PT) weren't enough to push past 27.5 in a blowout win where she saw just 28 minutes.
- Georgia Amoore Over 9.5 PR7 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberAmoore's 1-5 shooting (20% TS%) and 0-4 from three left her with just 2 points despite 28 minutes played, and her 5 rebounds fell short of the 9.5 line even with solid court time. The offensive inefficiency—she attempted only 5 shots across 28 minutes—was the primary culprit in missing the over.
- Shakira Austin Over 28.5 PR12 vs 28.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin shot just 3-9 from the field (33%) and posted a 19% usage rate in 32 minutes, combining for only 12 points—well short of the 28.5 projection—as she struggled with efficiency and offensive opportunities.
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberOnyenwere's heavy usage (30%) went entirely into scoring rather than playmaking—she took 8 shots but recorded zero assists despite 18 minutes, indicating a self-reliant offensive approach with two turnovers that further limited her ball distribution.
- Allisha Gray Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's aggressive offensive role (27% usage, 22 points on 35 minutes) didn't translate to rebounding activity—she managed just 1 board despite heavy involvement, suggesting limited exposure on the glass or a team that controlled the rebounding battle regardless of her scoring contributions.
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.