← system_lineedges · WNBA
2026-10-04
Day by day
Latest 1 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: system_lineedges.
42–35 · 55% · −19.91u across the last 1 days
10/0442–3555%−19.91u2 games
LVA @ GSV18–20−13.70u
- Gabby Williams Under 4.5 REB11 vs 4.5no clean explanationWilliams dominated the glass with 11 rebounds across 34 minutes, more than doubling the 4.5 line, as her 31% usage rate and clean foul trouble (0 PF) allowed her to stay on the court and crash consistently on both ends.
- Veronica Burton Over 3.5 AST1 vs 3.5no clean explanationBurton was limited to 18 minutes and finished with just 1 assist despite needing 4, as poor shooting (1-6 FG, 23% TS) and low usage (23%) kept her out of rhythm as a playmaker. The combination of restricted minutes and inefficiency shut down her assist opportunities well short of the Over.
- Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTS3 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHayes shot just 1-for-4 from the field and 1-for-4 from the line while logging only 11 minutes, leaving her well short of the 8.5-point line. Her 26% true shooting and limited floor time were the primary culprits in a significant underperformance.
- Chelsea Gray Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray fell one assist short despite playing 36 minutes and logging 26% usage, hampered by a quiet offensive night (5-14 FG) that limited her playmaking opportunities and forced her into a scoring role rather than a facilitating one.
- Gabby Williams Under 20.5 PTS25 vs 20.5no clean explanationWilliams shot 50% from the field and 57% from three—well above her season averages—en route to 25 points in 34 minutes, exceeding the 20.5 total despite modest usage at 31%.
- Jackie Young Over 11.5 PTS11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationYoung's ice-cold 4-15 shooting (26.7% FG) and 37% true shooting sank the over despite heavy usage and full availability; she needed just one more point but couldn't find it on a night where her shot simply wasn't falling.
NYL @ ATL24–15−6.22u
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS27 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under, shooting 10-20 from the field (50%) and 3-8 from three while logging 34 minutes and commanding 35% usage—well above what's needed to clear 15.5 points. Her elite 62% true shooting efficiency and high volume made the under untenable.
- Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones exceeded the 2.5 assists line by dishing 4 assists while playing a full 32 minutes with elevated usage (17%), as the Liberty leaned on her playmaking from the post more than typical. The under missed despite modest offensive efficiency because she operated as a secondary facilitator alongside heavier volume touches in what appeared to be an offensive system adjustment.
- Jordin Canada Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5no clean explanationCanada's offensive usage stayed low at 23% despite her efficient 82 TS%, as she prioritized scoring (25 points on 14 FG attempts) over playmaking in the flow of the offense. She fell one assist short, finishing with 4 dimes while committing 2 turnovers in 32 minutes.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS27 vs 14.5no clean explanationIonescu torched the line on 10-20 shooting (50% FG) and 4-4 from the free-throw line, nearly doubling the under projection with her 62% true shooting and elite 35% usage rate over 34 minutes.
- Breanna Stewart Over 5.5 REB2 vs 5.5no clean explanationStewart's scoring punch (19 points on efficient 61% TS) kept her on the floor for 40 minutes, but she pulled down just 2 rebounds despite the heavy usage, likely due to poor positioning or her team controlling the glass elsewhere in a close game. The defensive activity (3 steals, 3 blocks) suggests she was tasked defensively rather than crashing the boards, leaving her well short of the 5.5 line.
- Pauline Astier Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanationAstier finished with just 1 assist despite 21 minutes and solid 64% TS%, as her offensive role centered on scoring (9 points on 4-7 shooting) rather than playmaking in a game where she logged only 19% usage. The lack of ball-handling opportunities in her limited offensive touches made the over on assists difficult to hit.
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.