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NBA · published picks & research record
Follow the exact picks recorded before tip-off to their final results. Published recommendations, zero-stake paper signals and the broader legacy CORE benchmark remain separate.
Reading this date’s saved publication receipts…
Checking this date’s separate CORE signals and generation status…
SEPARATE CORE BENCHMARK · cumulative units, flat-1u normalization
The line, result and units all come from one served formula and one price floor. This measures model signal quality consistently; it is not a claim that every row was a recommended wager.
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EXPERIMENT WINDOW · applies only to the panel, model arms, and slips below · the panel display is capped at 14 days
THE SHEET · loading the served CORE benchmark
SEPARATE LEGACY SERVED CORE VIEW · NBA · Feb 5
No completed evaluation has been observed for this slate since the service started. An empty card does not mean no opportunities qualified.
This broader serving view is not the frozen published cohort above. Source insertion times do not prove pre-tip publication. It can include settled games and zero-stake paper signals; it is not a combined profit record. Experiments and retrospective replays stay separate.
PUBLISHED PICK RECORD · NBA ·
Tracking exists for this league, but this date has no recorded game update. This is not a verified no-pick decision. The separate legacy benchmark remains available below.
Pick IDs, captured lines/prices and first-publication times are immutable. Settlement is joined by the exact same source ID; no name matching or reconstructed historical publication is used. Revisions retain withdrawn IDs separately.
Recommendation and zero-stake paper outcomes are reported separately. No combined ROI or flat-1u official record is inferred here. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark below has a different population and is unchanged.
League tracking first recorded —not proof that every date or game was covered.
THE ARMS · shadow experiment · last 7 days
No model-arm records are available in this window. Empty data is not a measured zero-profit result; these experiments remain separate from official CORE calls.
THE PANEL BOARD · experimental · last 7 days
No panel calls are available in this window. This does not confirm whether the experiment ran, and does not change the official CORE record.
THE SLIPS · 2/3-leg cross-game parlays · graded in public · last 7 days
Every night the builder composes small cross-game parlays from +EV legs only — same-game pairs get a probability haircut, and any slip that isn't +EV after the haircut is never emitted, so many nights produce nothing. The claim to audit: does the realized hit rate match the claimed joint probability? At plus prices a losing-looking record profits — a 2-leg slip near +240 breaks even at 29%.
Scroll sideways for all columns · focus this area, then use arrow keys
| Slip size | W–L–void | Claimed hit | Realized hit | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-leg | 1–4–0 | 25% | 20% | +0.20u | +4% |
| 3-leg (disciplined) | 1–3–0 | 22% | 25% | +1.53u | +38% |
| 2-leg | 3–2–0 | 41% | 60% | +3.18u | +64% |
| 2-leg (disciplined) | 3–1–0 | 36% | 75% | +5.16u | +129% |
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| Date | Legs | Odds | Claimed | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 | Miles McBride U1.5 3PM + Norman Powell U3.5 REB + Jalen Brunson U3.5 REB | +336 | 26% | +14% | LOSS |
| 11-02 | Norman Powell U3.5 REB + Scoot Henderson U3.5 AST + De'Aaron Fox O5.5 AST | +409 | 22% | +14% | LOSS |
| 11-02 | Miles McBride U1.5 3PM + Norman Powell U3.5 REB | +162 | 42% | +9% | LOSS |
| 11-02 | Norman Powell U3.5 REB + Scoot Henderson U3.5 AST | +183 | 39% | +10% | WIN |
| 11-01 | Jase Richardson O0.5 3PM + Tristan da Silva U2.5 3PM + Aaron Nesmith U3.5 REB | +311 | 27% | +13% | LOSS |
| 11-01 | Desmond Bane O2.5 3PM + Andrew Nembhard U3.5 REB + Darius Garland U23.5 PTS | +453 | 21% | +14% | WIN |
| 11-01 | Jase Richardson O0.5 3PM + Tristan da Silva U2.5 3PM | +149 | 44% | +9% | LOSS |
| 11-01 | Desmond Bane O2.5 3PM + Darius Garland U23.5 PTS | +218 | 34% | +10% | WIN |
| 10-31 | Jabari Smith Jr U2.5 3PM + Jrue Holiday U2.5 3PM + Brandon Miller U3.5 AST | +313 | 27% | +11% | LOSS |
| 10-31 |
| +429 |
| 22% |
| +18% |
| LOSS |
| 10-31 | Jabari Smith Jr U2.5 3PM + Jrue Holiday U2.5 3PM | +154 | 42% | +7% | WIN |
| 10-31 | Brandon Miller U3.5 AST + Dejounte Murray O5.5 AST | +190 | 37% | +8% | LOSS |
| 10-29 | Evan Mobley U1.5 3PM + Darius Acuff Jr. O4.5 AST + Zach Edey U8.5 PTS | +401 | 24% | +19% | LOSS |
| 10-29 | Evan Mobley U1.5 3PM + Darius Acuff Jr. O4.5 AST | +175 | 40% | +10% | WIN |
| 10-28 | Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Zion Williamson U5.5 REB + Dejounte Murray U6.5 AST | +420 | 22% | +15% | WIN |
| 10-28 | Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Max Christie O1.5 3PM + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U4.5 REB | +411 | 22% | +14% | LOSS |
| 10-28 | Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Zion Williamson U5.5 REB | +189 | 38% | +10% | WIN |
| 10-28 | Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + R.J. Barrett O20.5 PTS | +215 | 35% | +12% | WIN |
Separate, broader flat-1u formula benchmark—not the exact published card or its recommended stakes. Benchmark scope: NBA disciplined at 1.70+ · settled through Nov 2, 2026. Lower-paying prices and unpriced rows are excluded.
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| Date | Lg | Pick | Mkt | Bet / Close | Grade | Result | Re-grade | Units | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOV 2 | NBA | Isaiah Jackson Under 7.5 REB | Prop | −122 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +5.44 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 31.5 PTS | Prop | −120 / — | C | W | ? → A | +0.83 | +6.44 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Damian Lillard Under 20.5 PTS | Prop | +105 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.05 | +5.61 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Donovan Clingan Under 10.5 REB | Prop | −121 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +4.56 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Scoot Henderson Under 3.5 AST | Prop | −135 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.74 | +5.56 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 AST | Prop | −125 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +4.82 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Alperen Sengun Over 17.5 PTS | Prop | +102 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.02 | +5.82 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Saddiq Bey Over 1.5 3PM | Prop | +111 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.11 | +4.80 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Cameron Boozer Over 1.5 3PM | Prop | −138 / — | A | W | ? → A+ | +0.72 | +3.69 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Cedric Coward Over 1.5 3PM | Prop | +102 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.02 | +2.96 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | LeBron James Over 17.5 PTS | Prop | +111 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +1.94 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Tre Jones Over 8.5 PTS | Prop | +100 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +2.94 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Franz Wagner Under 23.5 PTS | Prop | +110 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +3.94 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | C.J. McCollum Under 3.5 AST | Prop | +128 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +4.94 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Onyeka Okongwu Under 8.5 REB | Prop | +122 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +5.94 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Dyson Daniels Under 6.5 REB | Prop | −102 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +6.94 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Dyson Daniels Under 5.5 AST | Prop | +114 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +1.14 | +7.94 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 3.5 AST | Prop | +130 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +6.80 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 3.5 REB | Prop | −115 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +7.80 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Ausar Thompson Under 10.5 PTS | Prop | −118 / — | C | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +8.80 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Dennis Schroder Over 4.5 AST | Prop | −125 / — | B | V | excused | 0.00 | +9.80 |
| NOV 2 | NBA | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 PTS | Prop | +140 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +9.80 |
| NOV 1 | NBA | Keaton Wagler Over 3.5 REB | Prop | −138 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.72 | +10.80 |
| NOV 1 | NBA | Darius Garland Under 23.5 PTS | Prop | −115 / — | C | W | ? → A+ | +0.87 | +10.08 |
| NOV 1 | NBA | Nolan Traore Under 4.5 AST | Prop | −104 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +9.21 |
| NOV 1 | NBA | Andrew Nembhard Under 3.5 REB | Prop | −135 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.74 | +10.21 |
| NOV 1 | NBA | Tristan da Silva Under 3.5 REB | Prop | +130 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +9.47 |
| OCT 31 | NBA | Marcus Smart Over 8.5 PTS | Prop | −106 / — | C | W | ? → A+ | +0.94 | +10.47 |
| OCT 31 | NBA | Jabari Smith Jr Over 15.5 PTS | Prop | +113 / — | <52% | V | excused | 0.00 | +9.53 |
| OCT 31 | NBA | Ayo Dosunmu Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +111 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +9.53 |
| OCT 31 | NBA | Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 AST | Prop | −127 / — | B | V | excused | 0.00 | +10.53 |
| OCT 31 | NBA | Jeremiah Fears Over 3.5 REB | Prop | −122 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.82 | +10.53 |
| OCT 31 | NBA | Adem Bona Under 6.5 PTS | Prop | +100 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.00 | +9.71 |
| OCT 29 | NBA | Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 3PM | Prop | −135 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.74 | +8.71 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Josh Hart Under 11.5 PTS | Prop | +101 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.01 | +7.96 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Kobe Sanders Under 11.5 PTS | Prop | −112 / — | C | W | ? → A | +0.89 | +6.95 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Austin Reaves Under 4.5 REB | Prop | −130 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +6.06 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Austin Reaves Under 7.5 AST | Prop | −125 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.80 | +7.06 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Isaiah Jackson Under 7.5 REB | Prop | −120 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.83 | +6.26 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 4.5 REB | Prop | −120 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +5.43 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Ace Bailey Over 12.5 PTS | Prop | −117 / — | C | W | ? → A+ | +0.85 | +6.43 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Dylan Harper Under 4.5 AST | Prop | −122 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +5.57 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Stephon Castle Under 6.5 AST | Prop | −115 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +6.57 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 AST | Prop | −132 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.76 | +7.57 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Aaron Gordon Under 15.5 PTS | Prop | +110 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.10 | +6.82 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Jamal Murray Over 4.5 REB | Prop | +117 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +5.72 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Brandin Podziemski Over 16.5 PTS | Prop | +122 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +6.72 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Desmond Bane Under 3.5 AST | Prop | −108 / — | C | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +7.72 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | R.J. Barrett Over 20.5 PTS | Prop | −115 / — | C | W | ? → A | +0.87 | +8.72 |
| OCT 28 | NBA | Aaron Wiggins Over 1.5 3PM | Prop | −138 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.72 | +7.85 |
▲ = beat the closing line. A → F is our own honest re-grade after the game — process misses included, nothing buried. The public sheet contains 96 of 96 signals in the served CORE benchmark — rows appear as you scroll. Sign in only if you want to export the current filter as CSV.
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HIT-LIKELIHOOD BANDS · price-derived, not an edge score · NBA
The same 96 settled signals as the flat-1u CORE benchmark, grouped by calibrated probability of hitting at the posted price. A higher band means more likely to hit, not automatically more profitable—read the ROI beside it. Source: disciplined · prices 1.70+ · through Nov 2, 2026. 1 older entries have no probability band and are excluded from the cards.
The former agent-conviction experiment is archived through Jul 18 and is no longer mixed into current results. View its historical record →
Latest 10 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: NBA disciplined · prices 1.70+ · through 2026-11-02.
49–40 · 55% · +3.70u across the last 10 days · 5 voided, zero benchmark units
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.