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NBA · published picks & research record
Follow the exact picks recorded before tip-off to their final results. Published recommendations, zero-stake paper signals and the broader legacy CORE benchmark remain separate.
Reading this date’s saved publication receipts…
Checking this date’s separate CORE signals and generation status…
SEPARATE CORE BENCHMARK · cumulative units, flat-1u normalization
The line, result and units all come from one served formula and one price floor. This measures model signal quality consistently; it is not a claim that every row was a recommended wager.
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EXPERIMENT WINDOW · applies only to the panel, model arms, and slips below · the panel display is capped at 14 days
THE SHEET · loading the served CORE benchmark
SEPARATE LEGACY SERVED CORE VIEW · NBA · Jun 17
No completed evaluation has been observed for this slate since the service started. An empty card does not mean no opportunities qualified.
This broader serving view is not the frozen published cohort above. Source insertion times do not prove pre-tip publication. It can include settled games and zero-stake paper signals; it is not a combined profit record. Experiments and retrospective replays stay separate.
PUBLISHED PICK RECORD · NBA ·
Tracking exists for this league, but this date has no recorded game update. This is not a verified no-pick decision. The separate legacy benchmark remains available below.
Pick IDs, captured lines/prices and first-publication times are immutable. Settlement is joined by the exact same source ID; no name matching or reconstructed historical publication is used. Revisions retain withdrawn IDs separately.
Recommendation and zero-stake paper outcomes are reported separately. No combined ROI or flat-1u official record is inferred here. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark below has a different population and is unchanged.
League tracking first recorded —not proof that every date or game was covered.
THE ARMS · shadow experiment · last 14 days
No model-arm records are available in this window. Empty data is not a measured zero-profit result; these experiments remain separate from official CORE calls.
THE PANEL BOARD · experimental · last 14 days
No panel calls are available in this window. This does not confirm whether the experiment ran, and does not change the official CORE record.
THE SLIPS · 2/3-leg cross-game parlays · graded in public · last 14 days
Every night the builder composes small cross-game parlays from +EV legs only — same-game pairs get a probability haircut, and any slip that isn't +EV after the haircut is never emitted, so many nights produce nothing. The claim to audit: does the realized hit rate match the claimed joint probability? At plus prices a losing-looking record profits — a 2-leg slip near +240 breaks even at 29%.
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| Slip size | W–L–void | Claimed hit | Realized hit | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-leg | 1–3–0 | 21% | 25% | +1.35u | +34% |
| 3-leg (disciplined) | 0–2–0 | 23% | 0% | −2.00u | −100% |
| 2-leg | 1–3–0 | 36% | 25% | −1.01u | −25% |
| 2-leg (disciplined) | 0–2–0 | 38% | 0% | −2.00u | −100% |
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| Date | Legs | Odds | Claimed | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 | Draymond Green U5.5 REB + Stephen Curry U3.5 REB + Cooper Flagg O5.5 REB | +425 | 22% | +17% | PENDING |
| 10-26 | Cooper Flagg O5.5 REB + Isaiah Hartenstein U3.5 AST + Jaden McDaniels O4.5 REB | +463 | 20% | +15% | PENDING |
| 10-26 | Draymond Green U5.5 REB + Stephen Curry U3.5 REB | +194 | 37% | +10% | PENDING |
| 10-26 | Cooper Flagg O5.5 REB + Isaiah Hartenstein U3.5 AST | +207 | 35% | +9% | PENDING |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U4.5 AST + LeBron James U7.5 AST + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O3.5 REB | +516 | 19% | +15% | LOSS |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U1.5 3PM + Tristan da Silva U2.5 3PM + Derrick Jones U1.5 3PM | +331 | 26% | +13% | LOSS |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U4.5 AST + LeBron James U7.5 AST | +239 | 33% | +12% | LOSS |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U1.5 3PM + Tristan da Silva U2.5 3PM | +152 | 43% | +9% | LOSS |
| 10-24 | Caleb Wilson O5.5 REB + Dennis Schroder U6.5 AST + Devin Booker O3.5 REB | +435 | 21% | +13% | WIN |
| 10-24 |
| +405 |
| 24% |
| +22% |
| LOSS |
| 10-24 | Caleb Wilson O5.5 REB + Dennis Schroder U6.5 AST | +199 | 36% | +9% | WIN |
| 10-24 | Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 3PM + Julius Randle O6.5 REB | +194 | 37% | +8% | LOSS |
| 10-23 | Paul George O2.5 AST + Ausar Thompson O3.5 AST + Josh Hart O3.5 AST | +384 | 24% | +16% | LOSS |
| 10-23 | Damian Lillard U3.5 3PM + Dylan Harper O4.5 REB + Ja Morant O5.5 AST | +438 | 21% | +15% | PENDING |
| 10-23 | Paul George O2.5 AST + Ausar Thompson O3.5 AST | +181 | 38% | +8% | LOSS |
| 10-23 | Damian Lillard U3.5 3PM + Dylan Harper O4.5 REB | +199 | 37% | +10% | PENDING |
| 10-22 | Ajay Mitchell U11.5 PTS + Jared McCain O9.5 PTS + Jarrett Allen U13.5 PTS | +537 | 19% | +20% | LOSS |
| 10-22 | Ajay Mitchell U11.5 PTS + Jared McCain O9.5 PTS | +228 | 33% | +9% | LOSS |
Separate, broader flat-1u formula benchmark—not the exact published card or its recommended stakes. Benchmark scope: NBA consensus_devig at 1.70+ · settled through Oct 26, 2026. Lower-paying prices and unpriced rows are excluded.
HIT-LIKELIHOOD BANDS · price-derived, not an edge score · NBA
The same 1318 settled signals as the flat-1u CORE benchmark, grouped by calibrated probability of hitting at the posted price. A higher band means more likely to hit, not automatically more profitable—read the ROI beside it. Source: consensus_devig · prices 1.70+ · through Oct 26, 2026. Every settled entry is represented below.
The former agent-conviction experiment is archived through Jul 18 and is no longer mixed into current results. View its historical record →
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| Date | Lg | Pick | Mkt | Bet / Close | Grade | Result | Re-grade | Units | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCT 26 | NBA | Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 3.5 AST | Prop | +285 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +33.83 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kyrie Irving Under 29.5 PRA | Prop | −122 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +34.83 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kyrie Irving Under 1.5 AST | Prop | +400 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +35.83 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Zaccharie Risacher Over 9.5 PTS | Prop | +113 / — | C | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +36.83 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Pelle Larsson Under 3.5 REB | Prop | −122 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.82 | +37.83 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 AST | Prop | +109 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.09 | +37.01 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | P.J. Washington Over 1.5 AST | Prop | −126 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.79 | +35.92 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Daniel Gafford Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | −127 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.79 | +35.12 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Andrew Wiggins Under 6.5 RA | Prop | −124 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.81 | +34.34 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Zaccharie Risacher Under 3.5 REB | Prop | +185 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +33.53 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Zaccharie Risacher Under 10.5 PTS | Prop | −118 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.85 | +34.53 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Andrew Wiggins Under 1.5 REB | Prop | +400 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +33.68 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Andrew Wiggins Under 15.5 PR | Prop | +140 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.40 | +34.68 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Andrew Wiggins Under 0.5 BLK | Prop | +160 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +33.28 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 24.5 PTS | Prop | +186 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +34.28 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Max Christie Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +175 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +35.28 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Max Christie Under 1.5 AST | Prop | +200 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +36.28 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Max Christie Over 2.5 AST | Prop | +152 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.52 | +37.28 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Bobby Portis Under 3.5 REB | Prop | +264 / — | <52% | V | excused | 0.00 | +35.76 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Bobby Portis Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +145 / — | <52% | V | excused | 0.00 | +35.76 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 9.5 REB | Prop | +205 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +35.76 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 0.5 BLK | Prop | +155 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +36.76 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Klay Thompson Under 1.5 REB | Prop | +205 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +2.05 | +37.76 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kyrie Irving Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +264 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +35.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 PTS | Prop | +160 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +36.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Pelle Larsson Under 1.5 AST | Prop | +228 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +37.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Davion Mitchell Over 7.5 AST | Prop | +144 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +38.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | P.J. Washington Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +203 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +39.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Bam Adebayo Under 7.5 REB | Prop | +163 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +40.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Bobby Portis Under 1.5 3PM | Prop | −120 / — | B | V | excused | 0.00 | +41.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Bobby Portis Under 5.5 REB | Prop | +130 / — | <52% | V | excused | 0.00 | +41.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Davion Mitchell Over 11.5 PTS | Prop | +128 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.28 | +41.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Andrew Wiggins Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +165 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +40.43 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 0.5 BLK | Prop | −138 / — | A | W | ? → A+ | +0.72 | +41.43 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 PR | Prop | +115 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +40.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kyrie Irving Under 19.5 PTS | Prop | +165 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.65 | +41.71 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kyrie Irving Under 21.5 PTS | Prop | +110 / — | A | W | ? → A | +1.10 | +40.06 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 AST | Prop | +130 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.30 | +38.96 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 REB | Prop | −104 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.96 | +37.66 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Cooper Flagg Over 21.5 PTS | Prop | +170 / — | C | W | ? → A+ | +1.70 | +36.70 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 AST | Prop | +156 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +1.56 | +35.00 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Davion Mitchell Under 1.5 REB | Prop | +210 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +2.10 | +33.44 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Daniel Gafford Over 7.5 REB | Prop | +115 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.15 | +31.34 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 PA | Prop | +100 / — | C | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +30.19 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | P.J. Washington Under 6.5 REB | Prop | +132 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +31.19 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Bam Adebayo Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +210 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +2.10 | +32.19 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Paul George Under 1.5 STL | Prop | −106 / — | C | W | ? → A+ | +0.94 | +30.09 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Paul George Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +190 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +29.14 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Caleb Wilson Under 8.5 RA | Prop | −112 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.89 | +30.14 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Payton Pritchard Over 20.5 PA | Prop | +105 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.05 | +29.25 |
▲ = beat the closing line. A → F is our own honest re-grade after the game — process misses included, nothing buried. The public sheet contains 1318 of 1318 signals in the served CORE benchmark — rows appear as you scroll. Sign in only if you want to export the current filter as CSV.
Hover to preview · click a bar to keep its props open
Latest 5 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: NBA consensus_devig · prices 1.70+ · through 2026-10-26.
519–664 · 44% · +33.83u across the last 5 days · 135 voided, zero benchmark units
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.