FULL SHEET · loading the season…
FULL SHEET · loading the season…
NBA · published picks & research record
Follow the exact picks recorded before tip-off to their final results. Published recommendations, zero-stake paper signals and the broader legacy CORE benchmark remain separate.
Reading this date’s saved publication receipts…
Checking this date’s separate CORE signals and generation status…
SEPARATE CORE BENCHMARK · cumulative units, flat-1u normalization
The line, result and units all come from one served formula and one price floor. This measures model signal quality consistently; it is not a claim that every row was a recommended wager.
Loading the broader settled benchmark…
EXPERIMENT WINDOW · applies only to the panel, model arms, and slips below · the panel display is capped at 14 days
THE SHEET · loading the served CORE benchmark
THE PANEL BOARD · experimental · latest 14 days · display cap
No panel calls are available in this window. This does not confirm whether the experiment ran, and does not change the official CORE record.
THE ARMS · shadow experiment · all time
No model-arm records are available in this window. Empty data is not a measured zero-profit result; these experiments remain separate from official CORE calls.
SEPARATE LEGACY SERVED CORE VIEW · NBA · Jun 26
No completed evaluation has been observed for this slate since the service started. An empty card does not mean no opportunities qualified.
This broader serving view is not the frozen published cohort above. Source insertion times do not prove pre-tip publication. It can include settled games and zero-stake paper signals; it is not a combined profit record. Experiments and retrospective replays stay separate.
PUBLISHED PICK RECORD · NBA ·
Tracking exists for this league, but this date has no recorded game update. This is not a verified no-pick decision. The separate legacy benchmark remains available below.
Pick IDs, captured lines/prices and first-publication times are immutable. Settlement is joined by the exact same source ID; no name matching or reconstructed historical publication is used. Revisions retain withdrawn IDs separately.
Recommendation and zero-stake paper outcomes are reported separately. No combined ROI or flat-1u official record is inferred here. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark below has a different population and is unchanged.
League tracking first recorded —not proof that every date or game was covered.
THE SLIPS · 2/3-leg cross-game parlays · graded in public · all time
Every night the builder composes small cross-game parlays from +EV legs only — same-game pairs get a probability haircut, and any slip that isn't +EV after the haircut is never emitted, so many nights produce nothing. The claim to audit: does the realized hit rate match the claimed joint probability? At plus prices a losing-looking record profits — a 2-leg slip near +240 breaks even at 29%.
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| Slip size | W–L–void | Claimed hit | Realized hit | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-leg | 1–3–0 | 21% | 25% | +1.35u | +34% |
| 3-leg (disciplined) | 0–2–0 | 24% | 0% | −2.00u | −100% |
| 2-leg | 1–3–0 | 35% | 25% | −1.01u | −25% |
| 2-leg (disciplined) | 0–2–0 | 39% | 0% | −2.00u | −100% |
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| Date | Legs | Odds | Claimed | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U4.5 AST + LeBron James U7.5 AST + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O3.5 REB | +516 | 19% | +15% | LOSS |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U1.5 3PM + Tristan da Silva U2.5 3PM + Derrick Jones U1.5 3PM | +331 | 26% | +13% | LOSS |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U4.5 AST + LeBron James U7.5 AST | +239 | 33% | +12% | LOSS |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U1.5 3PM + Tristan da Silva U2.5 3PM | +152 | 43% | +9% | LOSS |
| 10-24 | Caleb Wilson O5.5 REB + Dennis Schroder U6.5 AST + Devin Booker O3.5 REB | +435 | 21% | +13% | WIN |
| 10-24 | Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 3PM + Jarrett Allen U8.5 REB + Dillon Brooks O1.5 3PM | +405 | 24% | +22% | LOSS |
| 10-24 | Caleb Wilson O5.5 REB + Dennis Schroder U6.5 AST | +199 | 36% | +9% | WIN |
| 10-24 | Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 3PM + Julius Randle O6.5 REB | +194 | 37% | +8% | LOSS |
| 10-23 | Paul George O2.5 AST + Ausar Thompson O3.5 AST + Josh Hart O3.5 AST | +384 | 24% | +16% | LOSS |
| 10-23 |
| +438 |
| 21% |
| +15% |
| PENDING |
| 10-23 | Paul George O2.5 AST + Ausar Thompson O3.5 AST | +181 | 38% | +8% | LOSS |
| 10-23 | Damian Lillard U3.5 3PM + Dylan Harper O4.5 REB | +199 | 37% | +10% | PENDING |
| 10-22 | Ajay Mitchell U11.5 PTS + Jared McCain O9.5 PTS + Jarrett Allen U13.5 PTS | +537 | 19% | +20% | LOSS |
| 10-22 | Ajay Mitchell U11.5 PTS + Jared McCain O9.5 PTS | +228 | 33% | +9% | LOSS |
Separate, broader flat-1u formula benchmark—not the exact published card or its recommended stakes. Benchmark scope: NBA consensus_devig at 1.70+ · settled through Oct 25, 2026. Lower-paying prices and unpriced rows are excluded.
HIT-LIKELIHOOD BANDS · price-derived, not an edge score · NBA
The same 1129 settled signals as the flat-1u CORE benchmark, grouped by calibrated probability of hitting at the posted price. A higher band means more likely to hit, not automatically more profitable—read the ROI beside it. Source: consensus_devig · prices 1.70+ · through Oct 25, 2026. Every settled entry is represented below.
The former agent-conviction experiment is archived through Jul 18 and is no longer mixed into current results. View its historical record →
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| Date | Lg | Pick | Mkt | Bet / Close | Grade | Result | Re-grade | Units | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCT 25 | NBA | Darius Acuff Jr. Under 1.5 3PM | Prop | +175 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +37.94 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Darius Acuff Jr. Under 29.5 PRA | Prop | −125 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +38.94 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Precious Achiuwa Over 7.5 REB | Prop | +138 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.38 | +39.94 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 19.5 RA | Prop | +150 / — | A | W | ? → A | +1.50 | +38.56 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +103 / — | C | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +37.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Jaylen Wells Under 1.5 REB | Prop | +310 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +38.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Ty Jerome Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +344 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +39.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Darius Acuff Jr. Under 1.5 REB | Prop | +340 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +40.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Jaylen Wells Under 10.5 PTS | Prop | +119 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +41.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Precious Achiuwa Under 5.5 REB | Prop | +215 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +42.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Over 38.5 PRA | Prop | −114 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +43.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Zach LaVine Under 1.5 AST | Prop | +390 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +44.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cameron Boozer Under 7.5 REB | Prop | +200 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +45.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cameron Boozer Over 13.5 RA | Prop | +115 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.15 | +46.06 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 24.5 PA | Prop | +105 / — | A | W | ? → A+ | +1.05 | +44.91 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Over 7.5 AST | Prop | +245 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +43.86 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cameron Boozer Under 22.5 PA | Prop | −134 / — | A | W | ? → A | +0.75 | +44.86 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Zach LaVine Under 23.5 PR | Prop | +115 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +44.11 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Jaylen Wells Over 3.5 REB | Prop | +186 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.86 | +45.11 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | De'Andre Hunter Under 3.5 REB | Prop | +155 / — | C | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +43.25 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 17.5 PTS | Prop | +105 / — | C | W | ? → A | +1.05 | +44.25 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Jerami Grant Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +175 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +1.75 | +43.20 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Zach LaVine Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +203 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +41.45 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Darius Acuff Jr. Under 22.5 PR | Prop | +110 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +42.45 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Darius Acuff Jr. Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +182 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +43.45 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cameron Boozer Under 5.5 REB | Prop | +300 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +44.45 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cameron Boozer Over 26.5 PR | Prop | +107 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.07 | +45.45 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cameron Boozer Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +122 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +44.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cameron Boozer Under 3.5 AST | Prop | +113 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +45.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Jaylen Wells Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +145 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +46.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Keegan Murray Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +175 / — | <52% | V | excused | 0.00 | +47.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Ty Jerome Under 19.5 PTS | Prop | +200 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +47.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 11.5 REB | Prop | +153 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +48.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 9.5 REB | Prop | +300 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +49.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 31.5 PR | Prop | +115 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.15 | +50.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 14.5 PTS | Prop | +210 / — | C | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +49.23 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 5.5 AST | Prop | +185 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +1.85 | +50.23 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Zach LaVine Under 19.5 PTS | Prop | +123 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +48.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Darius Acuff Jr. Under 3.5 AST | Prop | +168 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +49.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cedric Coward Over 3.5 AST | Prop | +212 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +50.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Ty Jerome Under 5.5 AST | Prop | +160 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +51.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | De'Andre Hunter Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +124 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.24 | +52.38 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | De'Andre Hunter Over 1.5 AST | Prop | −138 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +51.14 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Domantas Sabonis Under 19.5 PTS | Prop | −140 / — | A | W | ? → A | +0.71 | +52.14 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | LeBron James Under 24.5 PR | Prop | +125 / — | A | W | ? → A | +1.25 | +51.42 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | LeBron James Over 19.5 PTS | Prop | +125 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +50.17 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | LeBron James Under 24.5 PA | Prop | +125 / — | A | W | ? → A | +1.25 | +51.17 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | VJ Edgecombe Under 19.5 PR | Prop | +110 / — | A | V | excused | 0.00 | +49.92 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Daniss Jenkins Under 18.5 PRA | Prop | +114 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +49.92 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Daniss Jenkins Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | +130 / — | A | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +50.92 |
▲ = beat the closing line. A → F is our own honest re-grade after the game — process misses included, nothing buried. The public sheet contains 1129 of 1129 signals in the served CORE benchmark — rows appear as you scroll. Sign in only if you want to export the current filter as CSV.
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Latest 4 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: NBA consensus_devig · prices 1.70+ · through 2026-10-25.
449–559 · 45% · +37.94u across the last 4 days · 121 voided, zero benchmark units
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.