NBA · published picks & research record

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SEPARATE CORE BENCHMARK · cumulative units, flat-1u normalization

Broader CORE benchmark.

The line, result and units all come from one served formula and one price floor. This measures model signal quality consistently; it is not a claim that every row was a recommended wager.

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Wins and losses, row by row.

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Slip size	W–L–void	Claimed hit	Realized hit	Units	ROI
3-leg	2–3–0	23%	40%	+5.45u	+109%
3-leg (disciplined)	2–2–0	22%	50%	+6.58u	+164%
2-leg	4–1–0	38%	80%	+6.12u	+122%
2-leg (disciplined)	3–1–0	36%	75%	+5.12u	+128%

Date	Legs	Odds	Claimed	EV	Result
10-31	Jabari Smith Jr U2.5 3PM + Jrue Holiday U2.5 3PM + Brandon Miller U3.5 AST	+313	27%	+11%	LOSS
10-31	Brandon Miller U3.5 AST + Jeremiah Fears O3.5 REB + Dejounte Murray O5.5 AST	+429	22%	+18%	LOSS
10-31	Jabari Smith Jr U2.5 3PM + Jrue Holiday U2.5 3PM	+154	42%	+7%	WIN
10-31	Brandon Miller U3.5 AST + Dejounte Murray O5.5 AST	+190	37%	+8%	LOSS
10-29	Evan Mobley U1.5 3PM + Darius Acuff Jr. O4.5 AST + Zach Edey U8.5 PTS	+401	24%	+19%	LOSS
10-29	Evan Mobley U1.5 3PM + Darius Acuff Jr. O4.5 AST	+175	40%	+10%	WIN
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Zion Williamson U5.5 REB + Dejounte Murray U6.5 AST	+420	22%	+15%	WIN
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Max Christie O1.5 3PM + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U4.5 REB	+411	22%	+14%	LOSS
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Zion Williamson U5.5 REB	+189	38%	+10%	WIN
10-28

Date	Lg	Pick	Mkt	Bet / Close	Grade	Result	Re-grade	Units	Running total
OCT 31	NBA	Isaiah Hartenstein Under 1.5 AST	Prop	+300 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+3.00	+5.89
OCT 31	NBA	Jared McCain Under 9.5 PTS	Prop	+245 / —	<52%	L	? → C	−1.00	+2.89
OCT 31	NBA	Amen Thompson Under 1.5 STL	Prop	−122 / —	A	W	? → A+	+0.82	+3.89
OCT 31	NBA	Amen Thompson Under 5.5 REB	Prop	+215 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+2.15	+3.07
OCT 31	NBA	Amen Thompson Under 3.5 REB	Prop	+506 / —	<52%	W	? → A	+5.06	+0.92
OCT 31	NBA	Amen Thompson Under 14.5 PTS	Prop	+147 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+1.47	−4.14
OCT 31	NBA	Jabari Smith Jr Under 3.5 REB	Prop	+300 / —	<52%	V	excused	0.00	−5.61
OCT 31	NBA	Jabari Smith Jr Under 9.5 PTS	Prop	+277 / —	<52%	V	excused	0.00	−5.61
OCT 31	NBA	Alperen Sengun Under 7.5 REB	Prop	+160 / —	<52%	L	? → C	−1.00	−5.61
OCT 31	NBA	Alperen Sengun Under 9.5 PTS	Prop	+456 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−4.61
OCT 31	NBA	Alperen Sengun Under 14.5 PTS	Prop	+208 / —	<52%	L	? → C	−1.00	−3.61
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 REB	Prop	+471 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−2.61
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 24.5 PTS	Prop	+186 / —	<52%	L	? → C	−1.00	−1.61
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 PTS	Prop	+113 / —	<52%	L	? → C	−1.00	−0.61
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 3.5 AST	Prop	+285 / —	<52%	W	? → A	+2.85	+0.39
OCT 31	NBA	Isaiah Hartenstein Under 7.5 REB	Prop	+199 / —	<52%	W	? → A	+1.99	−2.46
OCT 31	NBA	Isaiah Hartenstein Over 22.5 PRA	Prop	+115 / —	<52%	L	? → C	−1.00	−4.45
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 39.5 PRA	Prop	+120 / −116 ▲	<52%	L	? → C	−1.00	−3.45
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 3PM	Prop	−115 / −146 ▲	B	W	? → A+	+0.87	−2.45
OCT 31	NBA	Amen Thompson Under 15.5 PTS	Prop	+130 / −110 ▲	<52%	W	? → A+	+1.30	−3.31
OCT 31	NBA	Jabari Smith Jr Under 20.5 PR	Prop	+113 / −114 ▲	<52%	V	excused	0.00	−4.61
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 PR	Prop	+113 / −116 ▲	<52%	L	? → C	−1.00	−4.61
OCT 31	NBA	Kevin Durant Under 3.5 REB	Prop	+208 / —	<52%	W	? → A	+2.08	−3.61
OCT 31	NBA	Jared McCain Under 19.5 PRA	Prop	+105 / —	C	W	? → A	+1.05	−5.69
OCT 31	NBA	Jabari Smith Jr Under 1.5 3PM	Prop	+185 / —	<52%	V	excused	0.00	−6.74
OCT 31	NBA	Alperen Sengun Under 3.5 AST	Prop	+277 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−6.74
OCT 31	NBA	Kenrich Williams Over 6.5 PTS	Prop	+105 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+1.05	−5.74
OCT 31	NBA	Marcus Smart Under 1.5 STL	Prop	−112 / —	B	W	? → A+	+0.89	−6.79
OCT 31	NBA	Marcus Smart Under 5.5 RA	Prop	+144 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−7.69
OCT 31	NBA	Kevin Durant Under 19.5 PTS	Prop	+175 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+1.75	−6.69
OCT 31	NBA	Kevin Durant Under 1.5 AST	Prop	+335 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−8.44
OCT 31	NBA	Ajay Mitchell Under 1.5 REB	Prop	+355 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−7.44
OCT 31	NBA	Ajay Mitchell Under 14.5 PTS	Prop	+186 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+1.86	−6.44
OCT 31	NBA	Ajay Mitchell Over 22.5 PR	Prop	+111 / −112 ▲	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−8.30
OCT 31	NBA	Jared McCain Over 3.5 REB	Prop	+182 / +130 ▲	<52%	W	? → A	+1.82	−7.30
OCT 31	NBA	Ajay Mitchell Under 1.5 AST	Prop	+506 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−9.12
OCT 31	NBA	Amen Thompson Under 1.5 AST	Prop	+567 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+5.67	−8.12
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 PR	Prop	+115 / −112 ▲	<52%	W	? → A	+1.15	−13.79
OCT 31	NBA	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 19.5 PTS	Prop	+388 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−14.94
OCT 31	NBA	Isaiah Hartenstein Under 5.5 REB	Prop	+365 / —	<52%	L	? → D	−1.00	−13.94
OCT 31	NBA	Ajay Mitchell Over 7.5 RA	Prop	−105 / —	C	W	? → A	+0.95	−12.94
OCT 31	NBA	Ajay Mitchell Under 9.5 PTS	Prop	+471 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+4.71	−13.89
OCT 31	NBA	Ajay Mitchell Over 3.5 AST	Prop	−128 / —	B	W	? → A+	+0.78	−18.60
OCT 31	NBA	Amen Thompson Under 11.5 RA	Prop	+120 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+1.20	−19.38
OCT 31	NBA	Amen Thompson Under 9.5 PTS	Prop	+355 / —	<52%	W	? → A	+3.55	−20.58
OCT 31	NBA	Isaiah Hartenstein Under 22.5 PRA	Prop	+122 / —	<52%	W	? → A	+1.22	−24.13
OCT 31	NBA	Ty Jerome Over 2.5 REB	Prop	−134 / —	B	V	excused	0.00	−25.35
OCT 31	NBA	Zach Edey Under 18.5 PRA	Prop	+104 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+1.04	−25.35
OCT 31	NBA	Precious Achiuwa Under 9.5 PTS	Prop	+215 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+2.15	−26.39
OCT 31	NBA	Darius Acuff Jr. Over 26.5 PR	Prop	+106 / —	<52%	W	? → A+	+1.06	−28.54

Slip size	W–L–void	Claimed hit	Realized hit	Units	ROI
3-leg	2–3–0	23%	40%	+5.45u	+109%
3-leg (disciplined)	2–2–0	22%	50%	+6.58u	+164%
2-leg	4–1–0	38%	80%	+6.12u	+122%
2-leg (disciplined)	3–1–0	36%	75%	+5.12u	+128%

Date	Legs	Odds	Claimed	EV	Result
10-31	Jabari Smith Jr U2.5 3PM + Jrue Holiday U2.5 3PM + Brandon Miller U3.5 AST	+313	27%	+11%	LOSS
10-31	Brandon Miller U3.5 AST + Jeremiah Fears O3.5 REB + Dejounte Murray O5.5 AST	+429	22%	+18%	LOSS
10-31	Jabari Smith Jr U2.5 3PM + Jrue Holiday U2.5 3PM	+154	42%	+7%	WIN
10-31	Brandon Miller U3.5 AST + Dejounte Murray O5.5 AST	+190	37%	+8%	LOSS
10-29	Evan Mobley U1.5 3PM + Darius Acuff Jr. O4.5 AST + Zach Edey U8.5 PTS	+401	24%	+19%	LOSS
10-29	Evan Mobley U1.5 3PM + Darius Acuff Jr. O4.5 AST	+175	40%	+10%	WIN
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Zion Williamson U5.5 REB + Dejounte Murray U6.5 AST	+420	22%	+15%	WIN
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Max Christie O1.5 3PM + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U4.5 REB	+411	22%	+14%	LOSS
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 3PM + Zion Williamson U5.5 REB	+189	38%	+10%	WIN
10-28

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