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NBA · published picks & research record
Follow the exact picks recorded before tip-off to their final results. Published recommendations, zero-stake paper signals and the broader legacy CORE benchmark remain separate.
Reading this date’s saved publication receipts…
Checking this date’s separate CORE signals and generation status…
SEPARATE CORE BENCHMARK · cumulative units, flat-1u normalization
The line, result and units all come from one served formula and one price floor. This measures model signal quality consistently; it is not a claim that every row was a recommended wager.
Loading the broader settled benchmark…
EXPERIMENT WINDOW · applies only to the panel, model arms, and slips below · the panel display is capped at 14 days
THE SHEET · loading the served CORE benchmark
THE PANEL BOARD · experimental · latest 14 days · display cap
No panel calls are available in this window. This does not confirm whether the experiment ran, and does not change the official CORE record.
THE ARMS · shadow experiment · all time
No model-arm records are available in this window. Empty data is not a measured zero-profit result; these experiments remain separate from official CORE calls.
SEPARATE LEGACY SERVED CORE VIEW · NBA · Aug 5
No completed evaluation has been observed for this slate since the service started. An empty card does not mean no opportunities qualified.
The broader LIST tier is paused by its performance safeguard. It is not being substituted for CORE.
This broader serving view is not the frozen published cohort above. Source insertion times do not prove pre-tip publication. It can include settled games and zero-stake paper signals; it is not a combined profit record. Experiments and retrospective replays stay separate.
PUBLISHED PICK RECORD · NBA ·
Tracking exists for this league, but this date has no recorded game update. This is not a verified no-pick decision. The separate legacy benchmark remains available below.
Pick IDs, captured lines/prices and first-publication times are immutable. Settlement is joined by the exact same source ID; no name matching or reconstructed historical publication is used. Revisions retain withdrawn IDs separately.
Recommendation and zero-stake paper outcomes are reported separately. No combined ROI or flat-1u official record is inferred here. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark below has a different population and is unchanged.
League tracking first recorded —not proof that every date or game was covered.
THE SLIPS · 2/3-leg cross-game parlays · graded in public · all time
Every night the builder composes small cross-game parlays from +EV legs only — same-game pairs get a probability haircut, and any slip that isn't +EV after the haircut is never emitted, so many nights produce nothing. The claim to audit: does the realized hit rate match the claimed joint probability? At plus prices a losing-looking record profits — a 2-leg slip near +240 breaks even at 29%.
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| Slip size | W–L–void | Claimed hit | Realized hit | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-leg | 2–4–0 | 21% | 33% | +4.60u | +77% |
| 3-leg (disciplined) | 2–2–0 | 23% | 50% | +6.58u | +164% |
| 2-leg | 2–4–0 | 36% | 33% | −0.07u | −1% |
| 2-leg (disciplined) | 2–2–0 | 38% | 50% | +1.97u | +49% |
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| Date | Legs | Odds | Claimed | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 | Landry Shamet U1.5 3PM + Deni Avdija O4.5 AST + Austin Reaves O5.5 AST | +454 | 21% | +16% | LOSS |
| 10-27 | Cade Cunningham O1.5 3PM + Donovan Clingan U10.5 REB + Mitchell Robinson U7.5 REB | +395 | 23% | +14% | WIN |
| 10-27 | Landry Shamet U1.5 3PM + Deni Avdija O4.5 AST | +213 | 35% | +9% | LOSS |
| 10-27 | Cade Cunningham O1.5 3PM + Donovan Clingan U10.5 REB | +190 | 38% | +10% | WIN |
| 10-26 | Draymond Green U5.5 REB + Stephen Curry U3.5 REB + Cooper Flagg O5.5 REB | +425 | 22% | +17% | WIN |
| 10-26 | Cooper Flagg O5.5 REB + Isaiah Hartenstein U3.5 AST + Jaden McDaniels O4.5 REB | +463 | 20% | +15% | WIN |
| 10-26 | Draymond Green U5.5 REB + Stephen Curry U3.5 REB | +194 | 37% | +10% | WIN |
| 10-26 | Cooper Flagg O5.5 REB + Isaiah Hartenstein U3.5 AST | +207 | 35% | +9% | WIN |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U4.5 AST + LeBron James U7.5 AST + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O3.5 REB | +516 | 19% | +15% | LOSS |
| 10-25 |
| +331 |
| 26% |
| +13% |
| LOSS |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U4.5 AST + LeBron James U7.5 AST | +239 | 33% | +12% | LOSS |
| 10-25 | Jalen Williams U1.5 3PM + Tristan da Silva U2.5 3PM | +152 | 43% | +9% | LOSS |
| 10-24 | Caleb Wilson O5.5 REB + Dennis Schroder U6.5 AST + Devin Booker O3.5 REB | +435 | 21% | +13% | WIN |
| 10-24 | Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 3PM + Jarrett Allen U8.5 REB + Dillon Brooks O1.5 3PM | +405 | 24% | +22% | LOSS |
| 10-24 | Caleb Wilson O5.5 REB + Dennis Schroder U6.5 AST | +199 | 36% | +9% | WIN |
| 10-24 | Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 3PM + Julius Randle O6.5 REB | +194 | 37% | +8% | LOSS |
| 10-23 | Paul George O2.5 AST + Ausar Thompson O3.5 AST + Josh Hart O3.5 AST | +384 | 24% | +16% | LOSS |
| 10-23 | Damian Lillard U3.5 3PM + Dylan Harper O4.5 REB + Ja Morant O5.5 AST | +438 | 21% | +15% | PENDING |
| 10-23 | Paul George O2.5 AST + Ausar Thompson O3.5 AST | +181 | 38% | +8% | LOSS |
| 10-23 | Damian Lillard U3.5 3PM + Dylan Harper O4.5 REB | +199 | 37% | +10% | PENDING |
| 10-22 | Ajay Mitchell U11.5 PTS + Jared McCain O9.5 PTS + Jarrett Allen U13.5 PTS | +537 | 19% | +20% | LOSS |
| 10-22 | Ajay Mitchell U11.5 PTS + Jared McCain O9.5 PTS | +228 | 33% | +9% | LOSS |
Separate, broader flat-1u formula benchmark—not the exact published card or its recommended stakes. Benchmark scope: NBA disciplined at 1.70+ · settled through Oct 27, 2026. Lower-paying prices and unpriced rows are excluded.
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| Date | Lg | Pick | Mkt | Bet / Close | Grade | Result | Re-grade | Units | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCT 27 | NBA | Ja Morant Over 6.5 AST | Prop | +150 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +7.12 |
| OCT 27 | NBA | Donovan Clingan Under 10.5 REB | Prop | −141 / — | A | W | ? → A | +0.71 | +8.12 |
| OCT 27 | NBA | Josh Hart Over 7.5 REB | Prop | +122 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +7.41 |
| OCT 27 | NBA | Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 3PM | Prop | −127 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +8.41 |
| OCT 27 | NBA | Dylan Harper Over 4.5 REB | Prop | −108 / — | C | W | ? → A+ | +0.93 | +9.41 |
| OCT 27 | NBA | Keldon Johnson Under 10.5 PTS | Prop | +100 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +8.49 |
| OCT 27 | NBA | Mitchell Robinson Under 7.5 REB | Prop | −141 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.71 | +9.49 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Draymond Green Over 5.5 AST | Prop | −115 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.87 | +8.78 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Jaren Jackson Jr Over 17.5 PTS | Prop | −104 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +7.91 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Ace Bailey Over 11.5 PTS | Prop | −104 / — | C | W | ? → A+ | +0.96 | +8.91 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Amen Thompson Over 16.5 PTS | Prop | −106 / — | C | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +7.95 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Amen Thompson Over 4.5 AST | Prop | +138 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +8.95 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Kevin Durant Over 4.5 REB | Prop | −133 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.75 | +9.95 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Isaiah Hartenstein Under 3.5 AST | Prop | −133 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.75 | +9.19 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 11.5 REB | Prop | −118 / — | C | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +8.44 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Davion Mitchell Over 10.5 PTS | Prop | −119 / — | C | W | ? → A+ | +0.84 | +9.44 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 REB | Prop | −133 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.75 | +8.60 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 PTS | Prop | +104 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.04 | +7.85 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Josh Giddey Over 7.5 AST | Prop | −111 / — | C | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +6.81 |
| OCT 26 | NBA | Jaden McDaniels Over 4.5 REB | Prop | −120 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.83 | +7.81 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Jaylen Brown Over 1.5 3PM | Prop | −112 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +0.89 | +6.98 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Cade Cunningham Under 5.5 REB | Prop | +100 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +6.08 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 3PM | Prop | +125 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.25 | +7.08 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Scottie Barnes Over 19.5 PTS | Prop | +113 / — | <52% | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +5.83 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | R.J. Barrett Over 19.5 PTS | Prop | −108 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +0.93 | +6.83 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Kawhi Leonard Over 5.5 REB | Prop | −108 / — | C | V | excused | 0.00 | +5.91 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Tristan da Silva Under 4.5 REB | Prop | −135 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.74 | +5.91 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Franz Wagner Under 21.5 PTS | Prop | +115 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +5.17 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Derrick Jones Under 1.5 3PM | Prop | −141 / — | A | V | excused | 0.00 | +6.17 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Isaiah Jackson Under 6.5 REB | Prop | −111 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.90 | +6.17 |
| OCT 25 | NBA | Jaren Jackson Jr Over 17.5 PTS | Prop | +105 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.05 | +5.27 |
| OCT 24 | NBA | Dillon Brooks Over 1.5 3PM | Prop | −140 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | +4.22 |
| OCT 24 | NBA | Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 AST | Prop | −103 / — | C | W | ? → A | +0.97 | +5.22 |
| OCT 24 | NBA | Amen Thompson Over 16.5 PTS | Prop | −105 / — | C | W | ? → A | +0.95 | +4.25 |
| OCT 24 | NBA | Victor Wembanyama Under 11.5 REB | Prop | +102 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +1.02 | +3.29 |
| OCT 24 | NBA | Jarrett Allen Under 8.5 REB | Prop | −122 / — | B | W | ? → A | +0.82 | +2.27 |
| OCT 24 | NBA | Julius Randle Over 6.5 REB | Prop | −122 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +1.45 |
| OCT 24 | NBA | Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 AST | Prop | +116 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.16 | +2.45 |
| OCT 23 | NBA | Ja Morant Over 5.5 AST | Prop | −125 / — | B | W | ? → A+ | +0.80 | +1.29 |
| OCT 23 | NBA | Donovan Clingan Under 11.5 REB | Prop | −122 / — | C | W | ? → A | +0.82 | +0.49 |
| OCT 23 | NBA | Jaren Jackson Jr Over 17.5 PTS | Prop | −107 / — | <52% | W | ? → A+ | +0.93 | −0.33 |
| OCT 23 | NBA | Zaccharie Risacher Under 9.5 PTS | Prop | −134 / — | B | L | ? → C | −1.00 | −1.26 |
| OCT 23 | NBA | Pascal Siakam Under 1.5 3PM | Prop | −125 / — | B | L | ? → D | −1.00 | −0.26 |
| OCT 23 | NBA | Jalen Johnson Under 6.5 AST | Prop | +120 / — | <52% | L | ? → C | −1.00 | +0.74 |
| OCT 22 | NBA | LeBron James Over 15.5 PTS | Prop | +101 / — | <52% | W | ? → A | +1.01 | +1.74 |
| JUN 5 | NBA | Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 AST | Prop | −137 / −134 | — | W | ? → A | +0.73 | +0.73 |
▲ = beat the closing line. A → F is our own honest re-grade after the game — process misses included, nothing buried. The public sheet contains 46 of 46 signals in the served CORE benchmark — rows appear as you scroll. Sign in only if you want to export the current filter as CSV.
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Latest 7 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: NBA disciplined · prices 1.70+ · through 2026-10-27.
27–17 · 61% · +7.12u across the last 7 days · 2 voided, zero benchmark units
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.
HIT-LIKELIHOOD BANDS · price-derived, not an edge score · NBA
The same 46 settled signals as the flat-1u CORE benchmark, grouped by calibrated probability of hitting at the posted price. A higher band means more likely to hit, not automatically more profitable—read the ROI beside it. Source: disciplined · prices 1.70+ · through Oct 27, 2026. 1 older entries have no probability band and are excluded from the cards.
The former agent-conviction experiment is archived through Jul 18 and is no longer mixed into current results. View its historical record →