NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 20:00 UTC

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

at Milwaukee Bucks

IND expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 230 points · odds to win: IND 1.85, MIL 2.07

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 23:05 UTC

IND 94 – MIL 109

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Pacers, MIL = Milwaukee Bucks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

8 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Pacersplaying MIL

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

Ben Sheppard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 13 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 10 actual

Tyrese Haliburton · minutes unknown

assists 10.5 → 8 actual

Milwaukee Bucksplaying IND

Myles Turner · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

What could go wrong

updated 20:00 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

IND had 7 days off before this game · MIL had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 270 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Ben Sheppard · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 9.2 min · no final price

Myles Turner · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.5 min · no final price

Pascal Siakam · rebounds 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 40.2 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 13.5 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 36.8 min · no final price

Tyrese Haliburton · assists 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 37.7 min · no final price

Andrew Nembhard · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · points 11.5 → 10 · 1.5 below the line · played 18.3 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIL vs IND · last 38 games · MIL leads · MIL record 24–14 · average score 120.2–115.4 · MIL has won by 4.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 Mar · IND 123 at MIL 134MIL won

6 Feb · IND 99 at MIL 105MIL won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 1.5, expected total 230 (Sun 23:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 23:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds history (h2h)ok · 255 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-14)ok 200 · 424 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-20)ok 200 · 428 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 430 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 433 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 435 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 1 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 442 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-19)ok 200 · 444 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 448 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-17)ok 200 · 449 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-18)ok 200 · 453 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-15)ok 200 · 455 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-16)ok 200 · 457 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-13)ok 200 · 462 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-12)ok 200 · 471 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-11)ok 200 · 473 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-10)ok 200 · 475 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-09)ok 200 · 478 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-08)ok 200 · 488 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-07)ok 200 · 490 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 496 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 498 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 503 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 502 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 503 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 506 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 515 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 87 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 650 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 900 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 951 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 342 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 739 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 930 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 930 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 946 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 945 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 951 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 957 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1022 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.