NBA · Finalupdated 00:14 UTC

Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards

at Washington Wizards

ORL expected to win by about 15 · both teams together expected to score about 213 points · odds to win: ORL 1.08, WAS 9.84

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 23:05 UTC

ORL 109 – WAS 97

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ORL = Orlando Magic, WAS = Washington Wizards.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

5 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 4 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 9 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Orlando Magicplaying WAS

Anthony Black · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Franz Wagner · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 27 actual

Goga Bitadze · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 0 actual

Wendell Carter Jr. · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

Jonathan Isaac · Out · left knee injury management (knee) · listed out, then played

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

Paolo Banchero · Out · right high ankle sprain (ankle) · listed out, then played

points 27.5 → 33 actual

Washington Wizardsplaying ORL

Alex Sarr · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 10 actual

Justin Champagnie · Out · right foot surgery (foot) · listed out, then played

points 9.5 → 8 actual

Tristan Vukčević · Out · left hip impingement (hip) · listed out, then played

points 11.5 → 7 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 00:14 UTC

Who is out

Out Nelson · left ankle injury recovery (ankle) · ORL

Out Suggs · right knee contusion/bone bruise (knee) · ORL

May not play Cain · left shoulder contusion (shoulder) · ORL

Out Isaac · left knee injury management (knee) · ORL

Out Penda · right partially torn hamstring (hamstring) · ORL

Out Banchero · right high ankle sprain (ankle) · ORL

May not play Silva · left calf strain (calf) · ORL

Out Watkins · left aclrepair/surgery · WAS

Out Champagnie · right foot surgery (foot) · WAS

Out Beekman · right acjoint injury · WAS

Out Vukčević · left hip impingement (hip) · WAS

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

WAS also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 235 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Goga Bitadze · rebounds 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 2.5 min · no final price

Alex Sarr · points 16.5 → 10 · 6.5 below the line · played 32.1 min · no final price

Tristan Vukčević · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 14.2 min · no final price

Anthony Black · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.7 min · no final price

Paolo Banchero · points 27.5 → 33 · 5.5 above the line · played 39 min · no final price

Justin Champagnie · points 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.1 min · no final price

Franz Wagner · points 23.5 → 27 · 3.5 above the line · played 33.9 min · no final price

Jonathan Isaac · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 13.6 min · no final price

Wendell Carter Jr. · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.1 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs ORL · last 28 games · ORL leads · WAS record 9–19 · average score 111.9–117.7 · WAS has lost by 5.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

2 Nov · WAS 103 at ORL 94WAS won

12 Mar · WAS 131 at ORL 136WAS lost

3 Mar · WAS 109 at ORL 126WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

ORL gives up114.6 points · 41.7 rebounds · 28.7 assists · 38.7% from three-point range

WAS gives up113.4 points · 47.8 rebounds · 27.4 assists · 31.2% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ORL gives up 114.6 points a game · 18th of 30 · league average 113.3about league average

WAS gives up 113.4 points a game · 16th of 30 · league average 113.3about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ORL expected to win by 15, expected total 213 (Thu 23:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Thu 23:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 24 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 27 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 36 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 8 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 41 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 159 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 167 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 237 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 238 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 606 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.