NBA · Apr 9 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls

FinalMIA 111 – CHI 119Page updated 23:20 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 6 availability alerts

May not play Wilson · right hip soreness/tightness (hip) · CHI

May not play Swain · right disc irritation · CHI

Out Sellers · on assignment · CHI

May not play Powell · low back spasms (back) · CHI

Out Awaka · low back tightness (back) · CHI

May not play Collins · respiratory illness · CHI

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

May not play Wilson · right hip soreness/tightness (hip) · CHI

May not play Swain · right disc irritation · CHI

Out Sellers · on assignment · CHI

May not play Powell · low back spasms (back) · CHI

Out Awaka · low back tightness (back) · CHI

May not play Collins · respiratory illness · CHI

Players and minutes7 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 25.5 → 25 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 17 actual

Chicago Bulls

Josh Giddey · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 36.5 → 55 actual

Matas Buzelis · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 17 actual

Patrick Williams · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Zach Collins · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIA expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 228 points · odds to win: MIA 1.78, CHI 2.16

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 00:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 23:20 UTC

Who is out

May not play Wilson · right hip soreness/tightness (hip) · CHI

May not play Swain · right disc irritation · CHI

Out Sellers · on assignment · CHI

May not play Powell · low back spasms (back) · CHI

Out Awaka · low back tightness (back) · CHI

May not play Collins · respiratory illness · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

CHI also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 221 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

Patrick Williams · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 13.8 min · no final price

Zach Collins · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 12.9 min · no final price

Davion Mitchell · points 9.5 → 17 · 7.5 above the line · played 35.6 min · no final price

Josh Giddey · points + rebounds + assists 36.5 → 55 · 18.5 above the line · played 40.5 min · no final price

Matas Buzelis · points 12.5 → 17 · 4.5 above the line · played 34.2 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 35.2 min · no final price

Andrew Wiggins · points + rebounds + assists 25.5 → 25 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.1 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

CHI vs MIA · last 23 games · MIA leads · CHI record 10–13 · average score 108.9–113.6 · CHI has lost by 4.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

MIA gives up120.0 points · 45.7 rebounds · 29.7 assists · 39.5% from three-point range

CHI gives up129.3 points · 49.7 rebounds · 29.7 assists · 39.5% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIA gives up 120.0 points a game · 26th of 30 · league average 113.3+6.7 vs average

CHI gives up 129.3 points a game · 30th of 30 · league average 113.3+16.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIA expected to win by 2, expected total 228 (Thu 00:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Thu 00:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 40

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 74 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 78 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 172 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 180 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 193 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 157 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 248 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 655 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1024 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 4617 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 293 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 301 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 306 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 324 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 355 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 424 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 432 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 466 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 773 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 844 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.