NBA · Finalupdated 23:30 UTC

Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons

at Detroit Pistons

No game odds posted yet

MIL 125 – DET 119

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIL = Milwaukee Bucks, DET = Detroit Pistons.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

8 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Milwaukee Bucksplaying DET

AJ Green · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Gary Trent Jr. · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 9 actual

Kyle Kuzma · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 10 actual

Ryan Rollins · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 7 actual

Detroit Pistonsplaying MIL

Ausar Thompson · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 11 actual

Cade Cunningham · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 36 actual

Paul Reed · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 2 actual

Taurean Prince · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 10 actual

Jalen Duren · Out · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · listed out, then played

points 13.5 → 11 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 23:30 UTC

Who is out

Out Turner · rest · MIL

May not play Herro · right knee contusion (knee) · MIL

Out Lanier · on assignment · DET

Out Okorie · on assignment · DET

May not play Harkless · two-way · DET

May not play Jones · two-way · DET

Out Joe · right hip contusion (hip) · DET

Out Duren · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · DET

Out Onyenso · two-way · DET

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 267 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

AJ Green · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 24.1 min · no final price

Paul Reed · points 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 9.4 min · no final price

Taurean Prince · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 25.1 min · no final price

Cade Cunningham · points 27.5 → 36 · 8.5 above the line · played 35.7 min · no final price

Kyle Kuzma · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.6 min · no final price

Jalen Duren · points 13.5 → 11 · 2.5 below the line · played 38.9 min · no final price

Ryan Rollins · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.1 min · no final price

Gary Trent Jr. · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.3 min · no final price

Ausar Thompson · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DET vs MIL · last 25 games · MIL leads · DET record 4–21 · average score 113.2–122.6 · DET has lost by 9.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

8 Apr · MIL 111 at DET 137DET won

What each defense gives up per game

MIL gives up121.2 points · 48.9 rebounds · 27.8 assists · 35.7% from three-point range

DET gives up104.6 points · 45.1 rebounds · 21.6 assists · 32.2% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIL gives up 121.2 points a game · 28th of 30 · league average 113.3+7.9 vs average

DET gives up 104.6 points a game · 3rd of 30 · league average 113.3−8.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 7 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 12 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 14 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 17 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 29 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 14 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 94 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 5836 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 373 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 380 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 381 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 382 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 383 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 384 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 394 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 426 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 434 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 439 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 443 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 490 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1476 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.