NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 23:00 UTC

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers

at Indiana Pacers

IND expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 227 points · odds to win: MIL 3.00, IND 1.44

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 16:55 UTC

MIL 98 – IND 117

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIL = Milwaukee Bucks, IND = Indiana Pacers.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

9 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Milwaukee Bucksplaying IND

AJ Green · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

Gary Trent Jr. · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 14 actual

Kyle Kuzma · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 0 actual

Ryan Rollins · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Myles Turner · Out · rest · listed out, then played

3-pointers 2.5 → 4 actual

Indiana Pacersplaying MIL

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 7 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 18.5 → 26 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 30.5 → 34 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 11 actual

Tyrese Haliburton · Out · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · listed out, then played

points 19.5 → 10 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 23:00 UTC

Who is out

Out Turner · rest · MIL

May not play Herro · right knee contusion (knee) · MIL

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 236 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 7 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

AJ Green · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 26.9 min · no final price

Kyle Kuzma · points 12.5 → 0 · 12.5 below the line · played 21.6 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · points 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 15.4 min · no final price

Myles Turner · 3-pointers 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.1 min · no final price

Tyrese Haliburton · points 19.5 → 10 · 9.5 below the line · played 34.3 min · no final price

Gary Trent Jr. · points 9.5 → 14 · 4.5 above the line · played 26.9 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.4 min · no final price

Andrew Nembhard · points + rebounds + assists 18.5 → 26 · 7.5 above the line · played 28.6 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 14.8 min · no final price

Ryan Rollins · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 18.6 min · no final price

Pascal Siakam · points + rebounds + assists 30.5 → 34 · 3.5 above the line · played 32.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs MIL · last 39 games · MIL leads · IND record 14–25 · average score 115.1–119.9 · IND has lost by 4.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Oct · IND 102 at MIL 110IND lost

16 Oct · MIL 128 at IND 127IND lost

15 Mar · IND 123 at MIL 134IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIL gives up121.2 points · 48.9 rebounds · 27.8 assists · 35.7% from three-point range

IND gives up115.2 points · 47.5 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 35.9% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIL gives up 121.2 points a game · 28th of 30 · league average 113.3+7.9 vs average

IND gives up 115.2 points a game · 20th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 6, expected total 227 (Sat 16:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 16:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 51 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 152 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 187 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-08)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-07)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-06)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-05)ok 200 · 209 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 210 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 251 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 52 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 263 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 223 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 543 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 725 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 227 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 242 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 248 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 256 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 257 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 258 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 259 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 260 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 296 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 302 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 390 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 407 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 414 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 428 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1252 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.