NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 09:06 UTC

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers

at Los Angeles Lakers

LAL expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 216 points · odds to win: MIN 2.73, LAL 1.52

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 00:25 UTC

MIN 117 – LAL 95

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Timberwolves, LAL = Los Angeles Lakers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Timberwolvesplaying LAL

Anthony Edwards · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 9 actual

Donte DiVincenzo · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 16.5 → 18 actual

Jaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 25 actual

Julius Randle · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 16 actual

Mike Conley · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 9 actual

Naz Reid · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 23 actual

Rudy Gobert · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 2 actual

Los Angeles Lakersplaying MIN

Austin Reaves · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 29.5 → 22 actual

Jarred Vanderbilt · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 2 actual

Jaxson Hayes · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 1 actual

LeBron James · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 39.5 → 27 actual

Rui Hachimura · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 9 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:06 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 134 days off before this game · LAL had 133 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 215 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Jaden McDaniels · points 10.5 → 25 · 14.5 above the line · played 33.3 min · no final price

Naz Reid · points 11.5 → 23 · 11.5 above the line · played 30.9 min · no final price

Rudy Gobert · points 12.5 → 2 · 10.5 below the line · played 24.3 min · no final price

Jaxson Hayes · points 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 8.2 min · no final price

Anthony Edwards · assists 5.5 → 9 · 3.5 above the line · played 35.4 min · no final price

LeBron James · points + rebounds + assists 39.5 → 27 · 12.5 below the line · played 36.3 min · no final price

Rui Hachimura · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

Austin Reaves · points + rebounds + assists 29.5 → 22 · 7.5 below the line · played 37 min · no final price

Mike Conley · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 22.5 min · no final price

Jarred Vanderbilt · points 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 13.5 min · no final price

Julius Randle · points 18.5 → 16 · 2.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · no final price

Donte DiVincenzo · points + rebounds + assists 16.5 → 18 · 1.5 above the line · played 24.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAL vs MIN · last 27 games · MIN leads · LAL record 13–14 · average score 108.9–109.6 · LAL has lost by 0.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

10 Mar · MIN 106 at LAL 120LAL won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up114.6 points · 43.8 rebounds · 25.9 assists · 35.3% from three-point range

LAL gives up113.8 points · 40.9 rebounds · 26.9 assists · 35.1% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 114.6 points a game · 13th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

LAL gives up 113.8 points a game · 11th of 30 · league average 115.3−1.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAL expected to win by 4.5, expected total 216 (Sun 00:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 00:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-08)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-07)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-06)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-05)ok 200 · 133 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 138 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 144 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 146 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 147 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 369 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 374 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 377 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 381 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 55 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 379 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 637 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1189 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 424 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 435 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 452 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 503 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1062 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1070 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1089 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1091 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1091 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1102 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1118 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1122 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1123 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1124 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1212 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.