NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 3 · OKC leads 2–0updated 22:09 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies

at Memphis Grizzlies

OKC expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 230 points · odds to win: OKC 1.24, MEM 4.40

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 01:30 UTC

OKC 114 – MEM 108

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder, MEM = Memphis Grizzlies.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

4 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 4 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying MEM

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 10 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 22.5 → 14 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points 31.5 → 31 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

points 5.5 → 5 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

points + rebounds + assists 27.5 → 32 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

points 21.5 → 26 actual

Memphis Grizzliesplaying OKC

Zach Edey · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Scotty Pippen Jr. · Out · lumbar disc herniation · listed out, then played

points 11.5 → 28 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 22:09 UTC

Who is out

Out Mitchell · left ankle sprain (ankle) · OKC

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right knee surgery (knee) · OKC

May not play Stewart · right knee bone bruise (knee) · MEM

May not play Mashack · two-way · MEM

Out López · on assignment · MEM

Out Post · concussion (concussion) · MEM

Out Saunders · right knee surgery (knee) · MEM

Out Jr. · lumbar disc herniation · MEM

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 264 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Scotty Pippen Jr. · points 11.5 → 28 · 16.5 above the line · played 38.3 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · points + rebounds + assists 22.5 → 14 · 8.5 below the line · played 20.9 min · no final price

Alex Caruso · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 23.1 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · points 21.5 → 26 · 4.5 above the line · played 37.2 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · points + rebounds + assists 27.5 → 32 · 4.5 above the line · played 32.2 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 24 min · no final price

Zach Edey · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points 31.5 → 31 · 0.5 below the line · played 40.4 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MEM vs OKC · last 28 games · OKC leads · MEM record 8–20 · average score 110.3–115.0 · MEM has lost by 4.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

6 Nov · OKC 128 at MEM 97MEM lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up105.9 points · 44.7 rebounds · 24.6 assists · 33.1% from three-point range

MEM gives up110.8 points · 41.9 rebounds · 24.1 assists · 32.9% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

OKC gives up 105.9 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.4 vs average

MEM gives up 110.8 points a game · 11th of 30 · league average 113.3−2.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had OKC expected to win by 9.5, expected total 230 (Fri 01:30 UTC) and had not changed it by Fri 01:30 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 61 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 77 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 205 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 221 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 271 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 271 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 271 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 273 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 273 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 273 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 281 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 225 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 33 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 438 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 102 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 617 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 237 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 241 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 242 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 251 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 252 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 258 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 351 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 391 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1045 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.